| Current Price | $14.73 |
| 5Y Range | 23.71 – 53.80 |
| 5Y Selected | 38.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.95% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.94 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -18.94% |
| 10Y Range | 25.76 – 56.61 |
| 10Y Selected | 41.18 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.95% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $12.69 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -13.86% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5781 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9332 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.5789 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1291 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6812 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7560 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.8144 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4110 |
| Safety Score | 0.3081 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 8.25% | 7.78% | 7.31% | 6.84% | 6.36% | 5.89% | 5.42% | 4.95% | 4.47% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 46,284.00 | 49,885.85 | 53,532.15 | 57,191.89 | 60,831.46 | 64,415.05 | 67,905.23 | 71,263.50 | 74,450.94 | 77,428.98 |
| EBITDA | 11,885.95 | 12,810.92 | 13,747.31 | 14,687.15 | 15,621.80 | 16,542.09 | 17,438.38 | 18,300.80 | 19,119.35 | 19,884.12 |
| D&A | -3,758.75 | -4,051.26 | -4,347.38 | -4,644.59 | -4,940.16 | -5,231.18 | -5,514.62 | -5,787.35 | -6,046.20 | -6,288.05 |
| EBIT | 8,127.20 | 8,759.66 | 9,399.93 | 10,042.56 | 10,681.65 | 11,310.90 | 11,923.76 | 12,513.45 | 13,073.15 | 13,596.07 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -2,599.40 | -2,801.69 | -3,006.47 | -3,212.01 | -3,416.42 | -3,617.68 | -3,813.70 | -4,002.30 | -4,181.32 | -4,348.57 |
| NOPAT | 5,527.79 | 5,957.97 | 6,393.46 | 6,830.55 | 7,265.23 | 7,693.22 | 8,110.06 | 8,511.15 | 8,891.83 | 9,247.50 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4,232.84 | -4,562.24 | -4,895.70 | -5,230.40 | -5,563.25 | -5,890.98 | -6,210.17 | -6,517.30 | -6,808.80 | -7,081.15 |
| NWC Investment | 195.12 | 199.13 | 201.59 | 202.33 | 201.21 | 198.12 | 192.96 | 185.66 | 176.22 | 164.64 |
| (+) D&A | 3,758.75 | 4,051.26 | 4,347.38 | 4,644.59 | 4,940.16 | 5,231.18 | 5,514.62 | 5,787.35 | 6,046.20 | 6,288.05 |
| Free Cash Flow | 5,248.83 | 5,646.12 | 6,046.72 | 6,447.06 | 6,843.35 | 7,231.54 | 7,607.47 | 7,966.86 | 8,305.45 | 8,619.04 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 | 5,415,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,214.70 | 5,479.23 | 5,497.44 | 5,491.29 | 5,460.76 | 5,406.14 | 5,328.05 | 5,227.41 | 5,105.46 | 4,963.66 | Raw: 192,899.48 148,987.97 |
Raw: 242,952.57 135,425.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 176,131.39 | 188,599.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | -298.91 | -298.91 |
| Equity Value | 176,430.30 | 188,898.55 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5,415.00 | 5,415.00 |
| Fair Value | $32.58 | $34.88 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.95% | 71.95% |
| Buy Price | $9.14 | $9.79 |
| Current Price | $14.73 | $14.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -37.96% | -33.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,209.84 | 5,455.77 | 5,423.10 | 5,366.76 | 5,287.38 | 5,185.91 | 5,063.56 | 4,921.82 | 4,762.37 | 4,587.13 | Raw: 136,127.99 101,328.25 |
Raw: 171,450.16 87,908.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 128,071.11 | 139,172.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | -298.91 | -298.91 |
| Equity Value | 128,370.02 | 139,471.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5,415.00 | 5,415.00 |
| Fair Value | $23.71 | $25.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.95% | 71.95% |
| Buy Price | $6.65 | $7.22 |
| Current Price | $14.73 | $14.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.86% | -50.95% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 5,219.61 | 5,503.00 | 5,573.51 | 5,619.93 | 5,641.53 | 5,637.92 | 5,609.03 | 5,555.13 | 5,476.84 | 5,375.09 | Raw: 328,629.68 263,460.17 |
Raw: 413,901.73 251,017.29 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 291,017.75 | 306,228.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | -298.91 | -298.91 |
| Equity Value | 291,316.66 | 306,527.80 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5,415.00 | 5,415.00 |
| Fair Value | $53.80 | $56.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 71.95% | 71.95% |
| Buy Price | $15.09 | $15.88 |
| Current Price | $14.73 | $14.73 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2.45% | 7.80% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 165,955.03 | 320,150.18 | 617,613.94 | 1,191,462.64 | 2,298,496.07 | 4,434,116.53 | 8,554,023.51 | 16,501,893.37 | 31,834,432.60 | 61,413,019.48 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% | 92.91% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 16.60 | 32.02 | 61.76 | 119.15 | 229.85 | 443.41 | 855.40 | 1,650.19 | 3,183.44 | 6,141.30 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 15.85 | 27.27 | 49.28 | 89.07 | 160.98 | 290.94 | 525.83 | 950.34 | 1,717.56 | 3,104.18 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $27.96 | 8.00% | $-2.06 | -107.36% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $15.06 | 9.08% | $-0.03 | -100.22% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $14.83 | 14.28% | $0.80 | -94.61% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $15.95 | 30.61% | $9.49 | -40.48% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $14.91 | 35.12% | $2.56 | -82.83% |
| $10.97 - $29.68 | 279 |
| $29.68 - $48.39 | 546 |
| $48.39 - $67.10 | 129 |
| $67.10 - $85.81 | 20 |
| $85.81 - $104.52 | 10 |
| $104.52 - $123.23 | 7 |
| $123.23 - $141.94 | 2 |
| $141.94 - $160.65 | 1 |
| $160.65 - $179.36 | 2 |
| $179.36 - $198.07 | 1 |
| $198.07 - $216.78 | 1 |
| $216.78 - $235.49 | 1 |
| $235.49 - $254.20 | 0 |
| $254.20 - $272.92 | 0 |
| $272.92 - $291.63 | 0 |
| $291.63 - $310.34 | 0 |
| $310.34 - $329.05 | 0 |
| $329.05 - $347.76 | 0 |
| $347.76 - $366.47 | 0 |
| $366.47 - $385.18 | 1 |