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Haidilao International Holding Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$14.73
5Y Range23.71 – 53.80
5Y Selected38.75
(-) Safety Margin71.95%
5Y Buy Price$11.94
Upside (to Buy Price)-18.94%
10Y Range25.76 – 56.61
10Y Selected41.18
(-) Safety Margin71.95%
10Y Buy Price$12.69
Upside (to Buy Price)-13.86%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.5781
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9332
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5789
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1291
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6812
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7560
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8144
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4110
Safety Score0.3081

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth8.25%7.78%7.31%6.84%6.36%5.89%5.42%4.95%4.47%4.00%
Revenue46,284.0049,885.8553,532.1557,191.8960,831.4664,415.0567,905.2371,263.5074,450.9477,428.98
EBITDA11,885.9512,810.9213,747.3114,687.1515,621.8016,542.0917,438.3818,300.8019,119.3519,884.12
D&A-3,758.75-4,051.26-4,347.38-4,644.59-4,940.16-5,231.18-5,514.62-5,787.35-6,046.20-6,288.05
EBIT8,127.208,759.669,399.9310,042.5610,681.6511,310.9011,923.7612,513.4513,073.1513,596.07
Pro forma Taxes-2,599.40-2,801.69-3,006.47-3,212.01-3,416.42-3,617.68-3,813.70-4,002.30-4,181.32-4,348.57
NOPAT5,527.795,957.976,393.466,830.557,265.237,693.228,110.068,511.158,891.839,247.50
Capital Expenditures-4,232.84-4,562.24-4,895.70-5,230.40-5,563.25-5,890.98-6,210.17-6,517.30-6,808.80-7,081.15
NWC Investment195.12199.13201.59202.33201.21198.12192.96185.66176.22164.64
(+) D&A3,758.754,051.264,347.384,644.594,940.165,231.185,514.625,787.356,046.206,288.05
Free Cash Flow5,248.835,646.126,046.726,447.066,843.357,231.547,607.477,966.868,305.458,619.04
Diluted Shares Outstanding5,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.005,415,000,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.74%Terminal Growth: 3.08%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.610.58
PV UFCF5,214.705,479.235,497.445,491.295,460.765,406.145,328.055,227.415,105.464,963.66
Raw: 192,899.48
148,987.97
Raw: 242,952.57
135,425.51

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value176,131.39188,599.64
(-) Net Debt-298.91-298.91
Equity Value176,430.30188,898.55
(/) Shares Out5,415.005,415.00
Fair Value$32.58$34.88
(-) Safety Margin71.95%71.95%
Buy Price$9.14$9.79
Current Price$14.73$14.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-37.96%-33.57%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.74%Terminal Growth: 2.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.670.620.570.53
PV UFCF5,209.845,455.775,423.105,366.765,287.385,185.915,063.564,921.824,762.374,587.13
Raw: 136,127.99
101,328.25
Raw: 171,450.16
87,908.52

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value128,071.11139,172.17
(-) Net Debt-298.91-298.91
Equity Value128,370.02139,471.09
(/) Shares Out5,415.005,415.00
Fair Value$23.71$25.76
(-) Safety Margin71.95%71.95%
Buy Price$6.65$7.22
Current Price$14.73$14.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-54.86%-50.95%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.74%Terminal Growth: 3.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.780.740.700.660.62
PV UFCF5,219.615,503.005,573.515,619.935,641.535,637.925,609.035,555.135,476.845,375.09
Raw: 328,629.68
263,460.17
Raw: 413,901.73
251,017.29

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value291,017.75306,228.89
(-) Net Debt-298.91-298.91
Equity Value291,316.66306,527.80
(/) Shares Out5,415.005,415.00
Fair Value$53.80$56.61
(-) Safety Margin71.95%71.95%
Buy Price$15.09$15.88
Current Price$14.73$14.73
Upside (to Buy Price)2.45%7.80%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$14.73
WACC Used6.7%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH92.91%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue165,955.03320,150.18617,613.941,191,462.642,298,496.074,434,116.538,554,023.5116,501,893.3731,834,432.6061,413,019.48
Constant Implied Growth92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%92.91%
Implied Free Cash Flow16.6032.0261.76119.15229.85443.41855.401,650.193,183.446,141.30
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.610.580.540.51
Present Value of Implied FCF15.8527.2749.2889.07160.98290.94525.83950.341,717.563,104.18

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$27.968.00%$-2.06-107.36%
20182018-12-31$15.069.08%$-0.03-100.22%
20172017-12-31$14.8314.28%$0.80-94.61%
20162016-12-31$15.9530.61%$9.49-40.48%
20152015-12-31$14.9135.12%$2.56-82.83%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$39.55
Median
$34.55
10th Percentile
$25.42
90th Percentile
$56.33

Fair Value Distribution

$10.97 - $29.68
279
$29.68 - $48.39
546
$48.39 - $67.10
129
$67.10 - $85.81
20
$85.81 - $104.52
10
$104.52 - $123.23
7
$123.23 - $141.94
2
$141.94 - $160.65
1
$160.65 - $179.36
2
$179.36 - $198.07
1
$198.07 - $216.78
1
$216.78 - $235.49
1
$235.49 - $254.20
0
$254.20 - $272.92
0
$272.92 - $291.63
0
$291.63 - $310.34
0
$310.34 - $329.05
0
$329.05 - $347.76
0
$347.76 - $366.47
0
$366.47 - $385.18
1