Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.36 |
| 5Y Range | 5.67 – 14.30 |
| 5Y Selected | 9.98 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.76% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $5.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 323.04% |
| 10Y Range | 6.16 – 15.03 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.76% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $6.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 348.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8345 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9596 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0907 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7655 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2981 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8114 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2110 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6394 |
| Safety Score | 0.5762 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.43% | 8.83% | 8.23% | 7.62% | 7.02% | 6.42% | 5.81% | 5.21% | 4.60% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 705.35 | 767.63 | 830.78 | 894.11 | 956.87 | 1,018.26 | 1,077.43 | 1,133.54 | 1,185.73 | 1,233.16 |
| EBITDA | 278.99 | 303.63 | 328.61 | 353.66 | 378.48 | 402.76 | 426.17 | 448.36 | 469.00 | 487.76 |
| D&A | -27.17 | -29.57 | -32.00 | -34.44 | -36.86 | -39.22 | -41.50 | -43.66 | -45.67 | -47.50 |
| EBIT | 251.83 | 274.06 | 296.61 | 319.22 | 341.63 | 363.54 | 384.67 | 404.70 | 423.33 | 440.26 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -68.59 | -74.65 | -80.79 | -86.94 | -93.05 | -99.02 | -104.77 | -110.23 | -115.30 | -119.91 |
| NOPAT | 183.24 | 199.42 | 215.82 | 232.27 | 248.58 | 264.52 | 279.90 | 294.47 | 308.03 | 320.35 |
| Capital Expenditures | -9.18 | -9.99 | -10.81 | -11.64 | -12.45 | -13.25 | -14.02 | -14.75 | -15.43 | -16.05 |
| NWC Investment | 16.42 | 16.82 | 17.06 | 17.10 | 16.95 | 16.58 | 15.98 | 15.15 | 14.10 | 12.81 |
| (+) D&A | 27.17 | 29.57 | 32.00 | 34.44 | 36.86 | 39.22 | 41.50 | 43.66 | 45.67 | 47.50 |
| Free Cash Flow | 217.65 | 235.82 | 254.07 | 272.18 | 289.93 | 307.07 | 323.36 | 338.54 | 352.37 | 364.61 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 | 1,013,289,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 216.30 | 229.30 | 232.13 | 233.52 | 233.73 | 232.61 | 230.15 | 226.41 | 221.43 | 215.29 | Raw: 8,988.30 7,023.90 |
Raw: 11,303.47 6,469.73 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,168.88 | 8,740.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.01 | 22.01 |
| Equity Value | 8,146.87 | 8,718.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,013.29 | 1,013.29 |
| Fair Value | $8.04 | $8.60 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.76% | 45.76% |
| Buy Price | $4.36 | $4.67 |
| Current Price | $1.36 | $1.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 220.66% | 243.16% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 216.10 | 228.34 | 229.00 | 228.21 | 226.29 | 223.10 | 218.70 | 213.14 | 206.51 | 198.91 | Raw: 6,164.34 4,641.98 |
Raw: 7,752.13 4,080.40 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,769.92 | 6,268.70 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.01 | 22.01 |
| Equity Value | 5,747.91 | 6,246.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,013.29 | 1,013.29 |
| Fair Value | $5.67 | $6.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.76% | 45.76% |
| Buy Price | $3.08 | $3.34 |
| Current Price | $1.36 | $1.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 126.23% | 145.87% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 216.50 | 230.28 | 235.33 | 239.01 | 241.49 | 242.61 | 242.33 | 240.65 | 237.59 | 233.19 | Raw: 16,452.71 13,346.71 |
Raw: 20,690.54 12,887.90 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,509.32 | 15,246.88 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.01 | 22.01 |
| Equity Value | 14,487.32 | 15,224.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,013.29 | 1,013.29 |
| Fair Value | $14.30 | $15.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 45.76% | 45.76% |
| Buy Price | $7.75 | $8.15 |
| Current Price | $1.36 | $1.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 470.21% | 499.24% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,478.19 | 4,815.71 | 9,358.07 | 18,184.94 | 35,337.66 | 68,669.46 | 133,441.06 | 259,307.65 | 503,896.30 | 979,190.08 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% | 94.32% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.25 | 0.48 | 0.94 | 1.82 | 3.53 | 6.87 | 13.34 | 25.93 | 50.39 | 97.92 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.24 | 0.41 | 0.75 | 1.38 | 2.52 | 4.59 | 8.39 | 15.31 | 27.96 | 51.05 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $3.57 | 8.18% | $2.42 | -32.26% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $3.51 | 11.79% | $2.47 | -29.58% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.33 | 14.26% | $1.36 | -59.07% |
| $4.78 - $12.82 | 856 |
| $12.82 - $20.85 | 109 |
| $20.85 - $28.89 | 18 |
| $28.89 - $36.93 | 7 |
| $36.93 - $44.97 | 3 |
| $44.97 - $53.01 | 2 |
| $53.01 - $61.05 | 2 |
| $61.05 - $69.08 | 0 |
| $69.08 - $77.12 | 2 |
| $77.12 - $85.16 | 0 |
| $85.16 - $93.20 | 0 |
| $93.20 - $101.24 | 0 |
| $101.24 - $109.28 | 0 |
| $109.28 - $117.32 | 0 |
| $117.32 - $125.35 | 0 |
| $125.35 - $133.39 | 0 |
| $133.39 - $141.43 | 0 |
| $141.43 - $149.47 | 0 |
| $149.47 - $157.51 | 0 |
| $157.51 - $165.55 | 1 |