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Yuexiu Services Group Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.50
5Y Range20.06 – 43.16
5Y Selected31.61
(-) Safety Margin56.55%
5Y Buy Price$14.80
Upside (to Buy Price)492.00%
10Y Range23.34 – 48.78
10Y Selected36.06
(-) Safety Margin56.55%
10Y Buy Price$16.88
Upside (to Buy Price)575.31%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9986
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9644
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4191
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7824
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5070
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8186
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0784
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2948
Safety Score0.4682

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth30.60%27.64%24.69%21.73%18.78%15.82%12.87%9.91%6.96%4.00%
Revenue5,051.786,448.288,040.269,787.6311,625.4913,464.8715,197.3116,703.5117,865.3218,579.93
EBITDA807.181,030.311,284.681,563.881,857.532,151.432,428.242,668.902,854.542,968.72
D&A-202.03-257.88-321.54-391.42-464.92-538.48-607.77-668.00-714.47-743.04
EBIT605.15772.43963.141,172.451,392.611,612.941,820.472,000.902,140.072,225.67
Pro forma Taxes-177.76-226.90-282.91-344.40-409.07-473.79-534.75-587.75-628.63-653.77
NOPAT427.39545.54680.22828.05983.541,139.151,285.721,413.151,511.441,571.90
Capital Expenditures-49.49-63.17-78.77-95.89-113.89-131.91-148.88-163.64-175.02-182.02
NWC Investment257.16303.41345.88379.64399.30399.63376.40327.24252.42155.26
(+) D&A202.03257.88321.54391.42464.92538.48607.77668.00714.47743.04
Free Cash Flow837.091,043.651,268.871,503.231,733.871,945.362,121.002,244.762,303.312,288.18
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.001,516,408,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.43%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF831.891,014.811,159.321,289.721,397.781,473.591,509.641,501.261,447.421,351.10
Raw: 45,062.63
35,214.15
Raw: 59,468.93
34,038.02

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value40,907.6747,014.56
(-) Net Debt-364.82-364.82
Equity Value41,272.4947,379.37
(/) Shares Out1,516.411,516.41
Fair Value$27.22$31.24
(-) Safety Margin56.55%56.55%
Buy Price$11.83$13.58
Current Price$2.50$2.50
Upside (to Buy Price)373.04%443.03%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.43%Terminal Growth: 1.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF831.111,010.551,143.701,260.381,353.281,413.391,434.491,413.251,349.871,248.32
Raw: 32,485.31
24,462.64
Raw: 42,870.70
22,565.35

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value30,061.6735,023.70
(-) Net Debt-364.82-364.82
Equity Value30,426.4935,388.51
(/) Shares Out1,516.411,516.41
Fair Value$20.06$23.34
(-) Safety Margin56.55%56.55%
Buy Price$8.72$10.14
Current Price$2.50$2.50
Upside (to Buy Price)248.73%305.60%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.43%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF832.681,019.131,175.301,320.021,444.201,536.961,589.501,595.671,553.031,463.44
Raw: 73,083.61
59,286.63
Raw: 96,448.08
60,076.42

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value65,077.9673,606.34
(-) Net Debt-364.82-364.82
Equity Value65,442.7873,971.16
(/) Shares Out1,516.411,516.41
Fair Value$43.16$48.78
(-) Safety Margin56.55%56.55%
Buy Price$18.75$21.20
Current Price$2.50$2.50
Upside (to Buy Price)650.06%747.81%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.50
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH77.66%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue13,398.8923,804.6242,291.5675,135.67133,486.88237,154.30421,331.02748,541.471,329,867.262,362,657.23
Constant Implied Growth77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.342.384.237.5113.3523.7242.1374.85132.99236.27
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF1.282.043.415.699.5015.8626.4844.2073.78123.17

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$4.3627.09%$5.3322.33%
20182018-12-31$4.2832.29%$0.45-89.47%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$34.30
Median
$30.80
10th Percentile
$23.38
90th Percentile
$48.92

Fair Value Distribution

$17.91 - $24.80
157
$24.80 - $31.68
382
$31.68 - $38.57
215
$38.57 - $45.45
114
$45.45 - $52.34
57
$52.34 - $59.22
30
$59.22 - $66.11
20
$66.11 - $72.99
6
$72.99 - $79.88
8
$79.88 - $86.76
2
$86.76 - $93.65
3
$93.65 - $100.53
2
$100.53 - $107.42
0
$107.42 - $114.30
1
$114.30 - $121.19
0
$121.19 - $128.07
0
$128.07 - $134.95
1
$134.95 - $141.84
1
$141.84 - $148.72
0
$148.72 - $155.61
1