Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $2.21 |
| 5Y Range | 1.66 – 3.67 |
| 5Y Selected | 2.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.49 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.99% |
| 10Y Range | 1.76 – 3.78 |
| 10Y Selected | 2.77 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.51 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -77.13% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0077 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5283 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0092 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0205 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0218 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.1485 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0260 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1138 |
| Safety Score | 0.1825 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.51% | 2.67% | 2.84% | 3.01% | 3.17% | 3.34% | 3.50% | 3.67% | 3.83% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,865.78 | 1,915.68 | 1,970.09 | 2,029.32 | 2,093.68 | 2,163.55 | 2,239.34 | 2,321.50 | 2,410.51 | 2,506.93 |
| EBITDA | 150.08 | 154.09 | 158.47 | 163.23 | 168.41 | 174.03 | 180.12 | 186.73 | 193.89 | 201.65 |
| D&A | -26.45 | -27.16 | -27.93 | -28.77 | -29.68 | -30.67 | -31.75 | -32.91 | -34.17 | -35.54 |
| EBIT | 123.63 | 126.93 | 130.54 | 134.46 | 138.73 | 143.36 | 148.38 | 153.82 | 159.72 | 166.11 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -27.78 | -28.52 | -29.33 | -30.21 | -31.17 | -32.21 | -33.34 | -34.56 | -35.88 | -37.32 |
| NOPAT | 95.85 | 98.42 | 101.21 | 104.25 | 107.56 | 111.15 | 115.04 | 119.26 | 123.84 | 128.79 |
| Capital Expenditures | -32.40 | -33.27 | -34.21 | -35.24 | -36.36 | -37.57 | -38.89 | -40.31 | -41.86 | -43.53 |
| NWC Investment | 4.65 | 5.09 | 5.55 | 6.04 | 6.56 | 7.12 | 7.72 | 8.37 | 9.07 | 9.83 |
| (+) D&A | 26.45 | 27.16 | 27.93 | 28.77 | 29.68 | 30.67 | 31.75 | 32.91 | 34.17 | 35.54 |
| Free Cash Flow | 94.56 | 97.39 | 100.47 | 103.82 | 107.44 | 111.37 | 115.63 | 120.23 | 125.22 | 130.62 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 | 1,333,334,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 93.97 | 94.70 | 91.80 | 89.08 | 86.62 | 84.37 | 82.31 | 80.42 | 78.70 | 77.14 | Raw: 3,074.71 2,402.90 |
Raw: 3,738.04 2,139.87 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,859.07 | 2,998.98 |
| (-) Net Debt | -133.74 | -133.74 |
| Equity Value | 2,992.81 | 3,132.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,333.33 | 1,333.33 |
| Fair Value | $2.24 | $2.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $0.33 | $0.35 |
| Current Price | $2.21 | $2.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.90% | -84.19% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 93.88 | 94.30 | 90.56 | 87.05 | 83.86 | 80.92 | 78.21 | 75.70 | 73.40 | 71.27 | Raw: 2,158.65 1,625.66 |
Raw: 2,624.34 1,381.57 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,075.32 | 2,210.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | -133.74 | -133.74 |
| Equity Value | 2,209.05 | 2,344.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,333.33 | 1,333.33 |
| Fair Value | $1.66 | $1.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $0.25 | $0.26 |
| Current Price | $2.21 | $2.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.85% | -88.17% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 94.06 | 95.10 | 93.07 | 91.17 | 89.50 | 88.00 | 86.66 | 85.48 | 84.44 | 83.55 | Raw: 5,303.63 4,302.71 |
Raw: 6,447.82 4,016.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,765.60 | 4,907.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | -133.74 | -133.74 |
| Equity Value | 4,899.34 | 5,041.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,333.33 | 1,333.33 |
| Fair Value | $3.67 | $3.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.13% | 85.13% |
| Buy Price | $0.55 | $0.56 |
| Current Price | $2.21 | $2.21 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.28% | -74.56% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 6,824.70 | 12,789.66 | 23,968.11 | 44,916.81 | 84,175.15 | 157,746.21 | 295,620.09 | 553,998.98 | 1,038,207.07 | 1,945,624.37 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% | 87.40% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.68 | 1.28 | 2.40 | 4.49 | 8.42 | 15.77 | 29.56 | 55.40 | 103.82 | 194.56 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.65 | 1.10 | 1.93 | 3.40 | 5.99 | 10.55 | 18.58 | 32.72 | 57.61 | 101.45 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $7.14 | -0.05% | $5.36 | -24.96% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $7.01 | 1.45% | $-1.59 | -122.68% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $6.65 | 4.26% | $7.53 | 13.28% |
| $1.33 - $2.01 | 258 |
| $2.01 - $2.69 | 403 |
| $2.69 - $3.37 | 195 |
| $3.37 - $4.05 | 72 |
| $4.05 - $4.73 | 26 |
| $4.73 - $5.41 | 18 |
| $5.41 - $6.09 | 10 |
| $6.09 - $6.77 | 4 |
| $6.77 - $7.45 | 4 |
| $7.45 - $8.12 | 3 |
| $8.12 - $8.80 | 1 |
| $8.80 - $9.48 | 0 |
| $9.48 - $10.16 | 1 |
| $10.16 - $10.84 | 1 |
| $10.84 - $11.52 | 2 |
| $11.52 - $12.20 | 0 |
| $12.20 - $12.88 | 0 |
| $12.88 - $13.56 | 0 |
| $13.56 - $14.24 | 1 |
| $14.24 - $14.92 | 1 |