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China Feihe Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$4.02
5Y Range4.30 – 10.67
5Y Selected7.49
(-) Safety Margin78.04%
5Y Buy Price$1.91
Upside (to Buy Price)-52.36%
10Y Range4.57 – 10.94
10Y Selected7.75
(-) Safety Margin78.04%
10Y Buy Price$1.98
Upside (to Buy Price)-50.68%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0109
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8168
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9123
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.2827
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4410
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.5547
FCF R2 (5Y)0.8943
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1835
Safety Score0.2558

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth4.39%4.35%4.30%4.26%4.22%4.17%4.13%4.09%4.04%4.00%
Revenue21,659.2822,600.6123,573.0824,577.1925,613.4426,682.3027,784.2228,919.6330,088.9331,292.48
EBITDA4,603.604,803.675,010.375,223.795,444.045,671.225,905.436,146.766,395.296,651.10
D&A-474.96-495.60-516.92-538.94-561.67-585.10-609.27-634.17-659.81-686.20
EBIT4,128.644,308.074,493.444,684.844,882.375,086.125,296.165,512.595,735.485,964.90
Pro forma Taxes-1,190.17-1,241.89-1,295.33-1,350.51-1,407.45-1,466.18-1,526.73-1,589.12-1,653.37-1,719.51
NOPAT2,938.473,066.183,198.113,334.343,474.923,619.933,769.433,923.474,082.104,245.39
Capital Expenditures-1,889.22-1,971.33-2,056.15-2,143.74-2,234.12-2,327.35-2,423.47-2,522.51-2,624.50-2,729.48
NWC Investment59.2261.2163.2365.2967.3869.5071.6573.8376.0378.26
(+) D&A474.96495.60516.92538.94561.67585.10609.27634.17659.81686.20
Free Cash Flow1,583.421,651.651,722.111,794.831,869.841,947.182,026.882,108.962,193.442,280.37
Diluted Shares Outstanding9,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.009,063,029,653.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.31%Terminal Growth: 3.01%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF1,573.761,606.801,575.911,544.031,513.091,482.161,451.251,420.401,389.631,358.95
Raw: 58,385.00
45,822.15
Raw: 71,203.40
41,154.18

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value53,635.7556,070.18
(-) Net Debt-1,099.78-1,099.78
Equity Value54,735.5357,169.96
(/) Shares Out9,063.039,063.03
Fair Value$6.04$6.31
(-) Safety Margin78.04%78.04%
Buy Price$1.33$1.39
Current Price$4.02$4.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-67.01%-65.54%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.31%Terminal Growth: 2.51%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF1,572.291,600.041,554.661,508.881,464.861,421.541,378.931,337.041,295.881,255.47
Raw: 39,941.17
30,206.00
Raw: 48,710.24
25,888.17

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value37,906.7440,277.76
(-) Net Debt-1,099.78-1,099.78
Equity Value39,006.5241,377.54
(/) Shares Out9,063.039,063.03
Fair Value$4.30$4.57
(-) Safety Margin78.04%78.04%
Buy Price$0.95$1.00
Current Price$4.02$4.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.49%-75.06%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.31%Terminal Growth: 3.51%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.65
PV UFCF1,575.251,613.651,597.661,580.351,563.391,545.971,528.111,509.821,491.141,472.07
Raw: 107,585.18
87,655.77
Raw: 131,205.46
82,535.67

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value95,586.0798,013.07
(-) Net Debt-1,099.78-1,099.78
Equity Value96,685.8599,112.85
(/) Shares Out9,063.039,063.03
Fair Value$10.67$10.94
(-) Safety Margin78.04%78.04%
Buy Price$2.34$2.40
Current Price$4.02$4.02
Upside (to Buy Price)-41.72%-40.26%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$4.02
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH89.45%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue75,205.41142,479.00269,930.93511,392.58968,849.221,835,515.123,477,440.766,588,120.1812,481,399.5623,646,401.52
Constant Implied Growth89.45%89.45%89.45%89.45%89.45%89.45%89.45%89.45%89.45%89.45%
Implied Free Cash Flow7.5214.2526.9951.1496.88183.55347.74658.811,248.142,364.64
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF7.2112.2621.8438.9369.37123.62220.31392.61699.671,246.87

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$8.170.14%$6.98-14.54%
20182018-12-31$6.536.09%$4.21-35.60%
20172017-12-31$6.1918.52%$6.250.90%
20162016-12-31$6.6632.90%$0.16-97.53%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$8.24
Median
$6.34
10th Percentile
$4.61
90th Percentile
$10.48

Fair Value Distribution

$3.41 - $26.13
990
$26.13 - $48.85
6
$48.85 - $71.57
1
$71.57 - $94.29
1
$94.29 - $117.01
0
$117.01 - $139.73
0
$139.73 - $162.45
0
$162.45 - $185.17
0
$185.17 - $207.89
0
$207.89 - $230.61
0
$230.61 - $253.33
0
$253.33 - $276.05
0
$276.05 - $298.77
0
$298.77 - $321.49
0
$321.49 - $344.21
0
$344.21 - $366.93
0
$366.93 - $389.65
0
$389.65 - $412.37
0
$412.37 - $435.09
1
$435.09 - $457.81
0