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Topsports International Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.13
5Y Range5.49 – 8.95
5Y Selected7.22
(-) Safety Margin85.78%
5Y Buy Price$1.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-63.71%
10Y Range5.43 – 8.49
10Y Selected6.96
(-) Safety Margin85.78%
10Y Buy Price$1.10
Upside (to Buy Price)-65.00%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.7545
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0260
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7805
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0192
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.5265
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.0007
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4642
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1835
Safety Score0.1573

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth-4.81%-3.83%-2.86%-1.88%-0.90%0.08%1.06%2.04%3.02%4.00%
Revenue25,712.4424,726.4124,020.3523,569.6923,358.3323,377.6123,625.8724,108.1424,836.3625,829.82
EBITDA3,481.423,347.913,252.313,191.293,162.673,165.293,198.903,264.203,362.803,497.31
D&A-1,719.42-1,653.49-1,606.27-1,576.13-1,562.00-1,563.29-1,579.89-1,612.14-1,660.84-1,727.27
EBIT1,762.001,694.431,646.041,615.161,600.671,602.001,619.011,652.061,701.961,770.04
Pro forma Taxes-452.32-434.98-422.56-414.63-410.91-411.25-415.62-424.10-436.91-454.39
NOPAT1,309.671,259.451,223.481,200.531,189.761,190.751,203.391,227.961,265.051,315.65
Capital Expenditures-531.78-511.38-496.78-487.46-483.09-483.49-488.62-498.60-513.66-534.20
NWC Investment129.6498.3070.3944.9321.07-1.92-24.75-48.08-72.60-99.04
(+) D&A1,719.421,653.491,606.271,576.131,562.001,563.291,579.891,612.141,660.841,727.27
Free Cash Flow2,626.962,499.852,403.362,334.132,289.752,268.632,269.912,293.422,339.632,409.68
Diluted Shares Outstanding6,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.006,201,222,012.00

Discounting Periods

MetricFeb-26Feb-27Feb-28Feb-29Feb-30Feb-31Feb-32Feb-33Feb-34Feb-35
Period Start2/28/253/1/263/1/272/29/283/1/293/1/303/1/312/29/323/1/333/1/34
Period End2/28/262/28/272/28/282/28/292/28/302/28/312/28/322/28/332/28/342/28/35
Mid-Point8/29/258/30/268/30/278/29/288/30/298/30/308/30/318/29/328/30/338/30/34
Time (t)0.100.621.622.623.624.625.626.627.628.62
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 7.56%Terminal Growth: 2.01%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.890.830.770.710.660.620.570.53
PV UFCF2,607.892,389.422,135.751,928.451,758.831,620.141,507.131,415.731,342.751,285.76
Raw: 42,116.74
31,193.81
Raw: 44,322.81
22,803.68

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value42,014.1540,795.54
(-) Net Debt134.65134.65
Equity Value41,879.5040,660.89
(/) Shares Out6,201.226,201.22
Fair Value$6.75$6.56
(-) Safety Margin85.78%85.78%
Buy Price$0.96$0.93
Current Price$3.13$3.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.32%-70.21%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 8.56%Terminal Growth: 1.51%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.880.810.740.680.630.580.530.49
PV UFCF2,605.472,375.752,103.971,882.261,700.891,552.331,430.751,331.601,251.331,187.18
Raw: 32,988.30
23,518.79
Raw: 34,716.21
16,415.58

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value34,187.1233,837.10
(-) Net Debt134.65134.65
Equity Value34,052.4733,702.45
(/) Shares Out6,201.226,201.22
Fair Value$5.49$5.43
(-) Safety Margin85.78%85.78%
Buy Price$0.78$0.77
Current Price$3.13$3.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-75.05%-75.31%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 6.56%Terminal Growth: 2.51%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.900.850.790.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF2,610.322,403.292,168.311,976.231,819.321,691.591,588.361,506.031,441.811,393.57
Raw: 58,013.52
44,653.56
Raw: 61,052.25
34,203.91

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value55,631.0452,802.76
(-) Net Debt134.65134.65
Equity Value55,496.3952,668.11
(/) Shares Out6,201.226,201.22
Fair Value$8.95$8.49
(-) Safety Margin85.78%85.78%
Buy Price$1.27$1.21
Current Price$3.13$3.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-59.34%-61.41%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.13
WACC Used7.6%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH77.92%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue99,537.89177,095.31315,083.51560,588.64997,385.191,774,522.613,157,185.915,617,185.629,993,955.1317,780,993.18
Constant Implied Growth77.92%77.92%77.92%77.92%77.92%77.92%77.92%77.92%77.92%77.92%
Implied Free Cash Flow9.9517.7131.5156.0699.74177.45315.72561.72999.401,778.10
Discount Factor0.990.890.830.770.710.660.620.570.530.50
Present Value of Implied FCF9.8715.7426.0343.0671.23117.82194.89322.38533.26882.08

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-02-28$8.08-6.72%$10.6832.18%
20192019-02-28$7.88-7.81%$3.22-59.14%
20182018-02-28$7.47-8.46%$2.77-62.98%
20172017-02-28$8.183.04%$3.19-61.01%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$6.74
Median
$6.54
10th Percentile
$5.34
90th Percentile
$8.34

Fair Value Distribution

$4.45 - $5.22
68
$5.22 - $5.99
243
$5.99 - $6.75
265
$6.75 - $7.52
203
$7.52 - $8.29
117
$8.29 - $9.06
62
$9.06 - $9.83
19
$9.83 - $10.60
7
$10.60 - $11.37
7
$11.37 - $12.14
5
$12.14 - $12.90
2
$12.90 - $13.67
0
$13.67 - $14.44
0
$14.44 - $15.21
1
$15.21 - $15.98
0
$15.98 - $16.75
0
$16.75 - $17.52
0
$17.52 - $18.29
0
$18.29 - $19.05
0
$19.05 - $19.82
1