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Shanghai Zhonggu Logistics Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$10.52
5Y Range4.32 – 10.22
5Y Selected7.27
(-) Safety Margin68.63%
5Y Buy Price$2.51
Upside (to Buy Price)-76.12%
10Y Range4.92 – 11.37
10Y Selected8.14
(-) Safety Margin68.63%
10Y Buy Price$2.81
Upside (to Buy Price)-73.25%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0410
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8318
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0507
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7082
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0000
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6925
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1092
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1625
Safety Score0.3456

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth1.09%1.42%1.74%2.06%2.39%2.71%3.03%3.35%3.68%4.00%
Revenue11,381.4511,542.7411,743.5811,985.8312,271.7812,604.1712,986.2613,421.8513,915.3914,472.01
EBITDA2,235.942,267.632,307.092,354.682,410.852,476.152,551.222,636.792,733.752,843.10
D&A-423.72-429.72-437.20-446.22-456.87-469.24-483.47-499.68-518.06-538.78
EBIT1,812.221,837.911,869.881,908.461,953.992,006.912,067.752,137.112,215.692,304.32
Pro forma Taxes-462.59-469.15-477.31-487.16-498.78-512.29-527.82-545.53-565.59-588.21
NOPAT1,349.631,368.761,392.571,421.301,455.211,494.621,539.931,591.581,650.111,716.11
Capital Expenditures-1,433.42-1,453.74-1,479.03-1,509.54-1,545.55-1,587.42-1,635.54-1,690.40-1,752.56-1,822.66
NWC Investment41.9554.9268.3882.4897.36113.17130.09148.31168.04189.52
(+) D&A423.72429.72437.20446.22456.87469.24483.47499.68518.06538.78
Free Cash Flow381.87399.66419.12440.46463.88489.62517.95549.18583.65621.75
Diluted Shares Outstanding2,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.252,100,569,063.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.51%Terminal Growth: 3.02%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.670.620.59
PV UFCF379.47388.47382.48377.13372.89369.51366.98365.31364.50364.55
Raw: 13,676.87
10,652.62
Raw: 18,331.52
10,414.42

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,553.0414,145.70
(-) Net Debt-60.13-60.13
Equity Value12,613.1714,205.82
(/) Shares Out2,100.572,100.57
Fair Value$6.00$6.76
(-) Safety Margin68.63%68.63%
Buy Price$1.88$2.12
Current Price$10.52$10.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-82.09%-79.83%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.51%Terminal Growth: 2.52%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF379.12386.84377.33368.55361.02354.42348.73343.91339.96336.84
Raw: 9,522.53
7,147.45
Raw: 12,763.34
6,668.65

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,020.3110,265.37
(-) Net Debt-60.13-60.13
Equity Value9,080.4310,325.50
(/) Shares Out2,100.572,100.57
Fair Value$4.32$4.92
(-) Safety Margin68.63%68.63%
Buy Price$1.36$1.54
Current Price$10.52$10.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-87.11%-85.34%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.51%Terminal Growth: 3.52%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF379.83390.12387.74385.98385.26385.38386.38388.27391.07394.83
Raw: 24,081.11
19,470.13
Raw: 32,276.64
19,954.02

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value21,399.0523,828.88
(-) Net Debt-60.13-60.13
Equity Value21,459.1823,889.01
(/) Shares Out2,100.572,100.57
Fair Value$10.22$11.37
(-) Safety Margin68.63%68.63%
Buy Price$3.20$3.57
Current Price$10.52$10.52
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.54%-66.09%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$10.52
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH107.65%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue22,244.8846,192.3595,920.17199,181.89413,608.79858,874.411,783,485.413,703,475.397,690,407.7015,969,424.48
Constant Implied Growth107.65%107.65%107.65%107.65%107.65%107.65%107.65%107.65%107.65%107.65%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.224.629.5919.9241.3685.89178.35370.35769.041,596.94
Discount Factor0.950.860.800.750.710.670.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF2.113.967.7115.0329.3157.13111.38217.14423.33825.31

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$11.22-1.15%$9.63-14.15%
20182018-12-31$11.224.69%$-13.98-224.58%
20172017-12-31$11.22-6.65%$1.51-86.57%
20162016-12-31$11.225.15%$5.23-53.40%
20152015-12-31$11.2218.74%$34.19204.76%
20142014-12-31$11.22-11.53%$-0.14-101.27%
20132013-12-31$11.2211.76%$1.44-87.18%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$7.57
Median
$6.69
10th Percentile
$4.90
90th Percentile
$10.90

Fair Value Distribution

$3.78 - $5.75
285
$5.75 - $7.72
393
$7.72 - $9.68
168
$9.68 - $11.65
78
$11.65 - $13.62
34
$13.62 - $15.59
11
$15.59 - $17.55
10
$17.55 - $19.52
7
$19.52 - $21.49
2
$21.49 - $23.46
2
$23.46 - $25.43
2
$25.43 - $27.39
4
$27.39 - $29.36
1
$29.36 - $31.33
1
$31.33 - $33.30
1
$33.30 - $35.26
0
$35.26 - $37.23
0
$37.23 - $39.20
0
$39.20 - $41.17
0
$41.17 - $43.14
1