Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $15.89 |
| 5Y Range | 36.55 – 74.57 |
| 5Y Selected | 55.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $9.46 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -40.49% |
| 10Y Range | 41.05 – 81.53 |
| 10Y Selected | 61.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $10.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -34.35% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6318 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.2922 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1085 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1997 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0009 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0924 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.4387 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0224 |
| Safety Score | 0.1702 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 7.34% | 6.97% | 6.59% | 6.22% | 5.85% | 5.48% | 5.11% | 4.74% | 4.37% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 35,234.39 | 37,688.67 | 40,174.18 | 42,674.69 | 45,172.64 | 47,649.36 | 50,085.24 | 52,459.97 | 54,752.84 | 56,942.95 |
| EBITDA | 24,576.32 | 26,288.20 | 28,021.87 | 29,766.00 | 31,508.35 | 33,235.88 | 34,934.93 | 36,591.33 | 38,190.62 | 39,718.25 |
| D&A | -897.50 | -960.01 | -1,023.33 | -1,087.02 | -1,150.65 | -1,213.74 | -1,275.78 | -1,336.27 | -1,394.68 | -1,450.46 |
| EBIT | 23,678.83 | 25,328.19 | 26,998.55 | 28,678.98 | 30,357.70 | 32,022.15 | 33,659.15 | 35,255.06 | 36,795.95 | 38,267.79 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3,633.00 | -3,886.06 | -4,142.34 | -4,400.16 | -4,657.73 | -4,913.10 | -5,164.26 | -5,409.12 | -5,645.54 | -5,871.36 |
| NOPAT | 20,045.83 | 21,442.13 | 22,856.21 | 24,278.82 | 25,699.97 | 27,109.05 | 28,494.88 | 29,845.94 | 31,150.41 | 32,396.43 |
| Capital Expenditures | -872.01 | -932.75 | -994.26 | -1,056.15 | -1,117.97 | -1,179.26 | -1,239.55 | -1,298.32 | -1,355.07 | -1,409.27 |
| NWC Investment | -1,893.73 | -1,929.95 | -1,954.52 | -1,966.31 | -1,964.29 | -1,947.60 | -1,915.48 | -1,867.40 | -1,803.02 | -1,722.22 |
| (+) D&A | 897.50 | 960.01 | 1,023.33 | 1,087.02 | 1,150.65 | 1,213.74 | 1,275.78 | 1,336.27 | 1,394.68 | 1,450.46 |
| Free Cash Flow | 18,177.59 | 19,539.45 | 20,930.76 | 22,343.39 | 23,768.36 | 25,195.92 | 26,615.64 | 28,016.49 | 29,387.00 | 30,715.40 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 | 10,934,402,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,057.30 | 18,964.29 | 19,009.67 | 18,976.48 | 18,889.96 | 18,738.18 | 18,522.49 | 18,244.89 | 17,908.05 | 17,515.17 | Raw: 583,569.56 448,649.41 |
Raw: 754,135.95 415,997.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 542,547.11 | 600,823.73 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,582.41 | 9,582.41 |
| Equity Value | 532,964.70 | 591,241.33 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10,934.40 | 10,934.40 |
| Fair Value | $48.74 | $54.07 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.52% | 85.52% |
| Buy Price | $7.06 | $7.83 |
| Current Price | $15.89 | $15.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.58% | -50.73% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,040.49 | 18,884.97 | 18,754.66 | 18,546.62 | 18,290.90 | 17,975.72 | 17,604.07 | 17,179.49 | 16,705.98 | 16,188.00 | Raw: 427,425.74 316,706.29 |
Raw: 552,354.23 280,294.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 409,223.93 | 458,465.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,582.41 | 9,582.41 |
| Equity Value | 399,641.52 | 448,883.10 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10,934.40 | 10,934.40 |
| Fair Value | $36.55 | $41.05 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.52% | 85.52% |
| Buy Price | $5.29 | $5.94 |
| Current Price | $15.89 | $15.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.69% | -62.59% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 18,074.29 | 19,044.70 | 19,270.59 | 19,420.48 | 19,514.55 | 19,540.60 | 19,498.13 | 19,387.34 | 19,209.15 | 18,965.20 | Raw: 914,358.67 729,625.69 |
Raw: 1,181,608.48 709,086.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 824,950.29 | 901,011.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | 9,582.41 | 9,582.41 |
| Equity Value | 815,367.89 | 891,428.69 |
| (/) Shares Out | 10,934.40 | 10,934.40 |
| Fair Value | $74.57 | $81.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.52% | 85.52% |
| Buy Price | $10.80 | $11.80 |
| Current Price | $15.89 | $15.89 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.05% | -25.71% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 93,202.70 | 211,577.63 | 480,298.26 | 1,090,315.75 | 2,475,104.59 | 5,618,686.84 | 12,754,871.80 | 28,954,586.60 | 65,729,244.34 | 149,210,680.23 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% | 127.01% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 9.32 | 21.16 | 48.03 | 109.03 | 247.51 | 561.87 | 1,275.49 | 2,895.46 | 6,572.92 | 14,921.07 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 8.90 | 17.97 | 38.17 | 81.09 | 172.25 | 365.90 | 777.26 | 1,651.11 | 3,507.37 | 7,450.56 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $11.61 | 5.66% | $60.23 | 418.82% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $6.81 | 11.70% | $30.44 | 347.06% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $10.60 | 16.03% | $-79.81 | -852.89% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $9.81 | 18.86% | $73.44 | 648.64% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $9.81 | 7.61% | $-53.32 | -643.53% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $9.81 | -14.86% | $-7.88 | -180.33% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $9.81 | -11.63% | $-4.20 | -142.86% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $9.81 | 7.31% | $5.15 | -47.47% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $9.81 | 40.36% | $-410.53 | -4,284.84% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $9.81 | 39.11% | $-123.24 | -1,356.27% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $9.81 | 5.75% | $146.44 | 1,392.80% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $9.81 | -17.75% | $-23.93 | -343.99% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $9.81 | -18.53% | $95.89 | 877.44% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $9.81 | -13.11% | $40.74 | 315.28% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $9.81 | 11.88% | $2.12 | -78.34% |
| $29.35 - $38.45 | 55 |
| $38.45 - $47.54 | 240 |
| $47.54 - $56.63 | 273 |
| $56.63 - $65.73 | 173 |
| $65.73 - $74.82 | 110 |
| $74.82 - $83.91 | 50 |
| $83.91 - $93.01 | 36 |
| $93.01 - $102.10 | 22 |
| $102.10 - $111.19 | 9 |
| $111.19 - $120.29 | 11 |
| $120.29 - $129.38 | 6 |
| $129.38 - $138.47 | 2 |
| $138.47 - $147.57 | 3 |
| $147.57 - $156.66 | 1 |
| $156.66 - $165.75 | 4 |
| $165.75 - $174.85 | 1 |
| $174.85 - $183.94 | 1 |
| $183.94 - $193.03 | 0 |
| $193.03 - $202.13 | 1 |
| $202.13 - $211.22 | 2 |