Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.36 |
| 5Y Range | 38.28 – 98.73 |
| 5Y Selected | 68.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 32.52% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $48.54 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 805.63% |
| 10Y Range | 40.38 – 100.03 |
| 10Y Selected | 70.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 32.52% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $49.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 828.16% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.6771 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9432 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2957 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.8892 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7590 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9614 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0274 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6993 |
| Safety Score | 0.7086 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 5.58% | 5.41% | 5.23% | 5.06% | 4.88% | 4.70% | 4.53% | 4.35% | 4.18% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,225,112.43 | 1,291,375.14 | 1,358,947.86 | 1,427,663.45 | 1,497,339.72 | 1,567,779.86 | 1,638,773.08 | 1,710,095.37 | 1,781,510.46 | 1,852,770.88 |
| EBITDA | 99,518.48 | 104,901.14 | 110,390.21 | 115,972.13 | 121,632.08 | 127,354.08 | 133,121.01 | 138,914.67 | 144,715.87 | 150,504.50 |
| D&A | -13,844.98 | -14,593.82 | -15,357.45 | -16,134.01 | -16,921.42 | -17,717.46 | -18,519.76 | -19,325.77 | -20,132.83 | -20,938.14 |
| EBIT | 85,673.49 | 90,307.32 | 95,032.76 | 99,838.12 | 104,710.66 | 109,636.61 | 114,601.25 | 119,588.90 | 124,583.04 | 129,566.36 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -18,259.54 | -19,247.15 | -20,254.28 | -21,278.44 | -22,316.92 | -23,366.79 | -24,424.90 | -25,487.92 | -26,552.31 | -27,614.41 |
| NOPAT | 67,413.95 | 71,060.17 | 74,778.48 | 78,559.67 | 82,393.73 | 86,269.82 | 90,176.35 | 94,100.98 | 98,030.72 | 101,951.95 |
| Capital Expenditures | -48,081.81 | -50,682.42 | -53,334.43 | -56,031.30 | -58,765.88 | -61,530.43 | -64,316.69 | -67,115.87 | -69,918.69 | -72,715.43 |
| NWC Investment | 6,190.40 | 6,330.03 | 6,455.18 | 6,564.35 | 6,656.13 | 6,729.10 | 6,781.93 | 6,813.37 | 6,822.24 | 6,807.46 |
| (+) D&A | 13,844.98 | 14,593.82 | 15,357.45 | 16,134.01 | 16,921.42 | 17,717.46 | 18,519.76 | 19,325.77 | 20,132.83 | 20,938.14 |
| Free Cash Flow | 39,367.52 | 41,301.61 | 43,256.68 | 45,226.73 | 47,205.40 | 49,185.95 | 51,161.35 | 53,124.25 | 55,067.10 | 56,982.12 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 | 23,474,234,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 39,123.34 | 40,161.30 | 39,525.15 | 38,808.33 | 38,062.82 | 37,267.48 | 36,425.91 | 35,541.92 | 34,619.42 | 33,662.45 | Raw: 1,461,460.11 1,142,315.49 |
Raw: 1,764,143.42 1,010,254.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,337,996.44 | 1,383,452.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 49,462.00 | 49,462.00 |
| Equity Value | 1,288,534.44 | 1,333,990.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 23,474.23 | 23,474.23 |
| Fair Value | $54.89 | $56.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 32.52% | 32.52% |
| Buy Price | $37.04 | $38.35 |
| Current Price | $5.36 | $5.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 591.06% | 615.44% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 39,086.77 | 39,992.62 | 38,992.74 | 37,925.62 | 36,850.79 | 35,744.88 | 34,612.45 | 33,458.07 | 32,286.27 | 31,101.54 | Raw: 1,002,685.56 755,229.00 |
Raw: 1,210,351.98 637,402.61 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 948,077.53 | 997,454.35 |
| (-) Net Debt | 49,462.00 | 49,462.00 |
| Equity Value | 898,615.54 | 947,992.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 23,474.23 | 23,474.23 |
| Fair Value | $38.28 | $40.38 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 32.52% | 32.52% |
| Buy Price | $25.83 | $27.25 |
| Current Price | $5.36 | $5.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 381.94% | 408.42% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 39,160.30 | 40,332.29 | 40,069.96 | 39,720.22 | 39,326.74 | 38,870.24 | 38,352.87 | 37,777.10 | 37,145.64 | 36,461.46 | Raw: 2,672,403.12 2,168,393.70 |
Raw: 3,225,885.09 2,010,408.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,367,003.21 | 2,397,625.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | 49,462.00 | 49,462.00 |
| Equity Value | 2,317,541.21 | 2,348,163.08 |
| (/) Shares Out | 23,474.23 | 23,474.23 |
| Fair Value | $98.73 | $100.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 32.52% | 32.52% |
| Buy Price | $66.62 | $67.50 |
| Current Price | $5.36 | $5.36 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,142.93% | 1,159.35% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 1,779,717.67 | 2,837,945.80 | 4,525,401.11 | 7,216,224.94 | 11,507,024.71 | 18,349,153.30 | 29,259,642.28 | 46,657,557.02 | 74,400,350.02 | 118,639,132.36 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% | 59.46% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 177.97 | 283.79 | 452.54 | 721.62 | 1,150.70 | 1,834.92 | 2,925.96 | 4,665.76 | 7,440.04 | 11,863.91 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 169.01 | 243.52 | 364.89 | 546.76 | 819.28 | 1,227.62 | 1,839.49 | 2,756.32 | 4,130.11 | 6,188.63 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.94 | 5.08% | $-1.16 | -119.53% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $6.87 | 8.52% | $-8.36 | -221.66% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $8.39 | 10.15% | $16.67 | 98.74% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $8.86 | 9.78% | $37.74 | 325.97% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $10.92 | 9.86% | $13.13 | 20.28% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $9.30 | 6.60% | $4.47 | -51.89% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $2.67 | 2.15% | $-6.37 | -338.67% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $3.04 | 2.09% | $-14.94 | -591.35% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $2.53 | 3.90% | $-23.16 | -1,015.38% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $4.33 | 7.76% | $-14.70 | -439.45% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $6.30 | 6.92% | $2.36 | -62.47% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $5.42 | 9.92% | $-14.53 | -368.06% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $11.43 | 18.26% | $-25.36 | -321.90% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $8.09 | 16.66% | $2.06 | -74.57% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $8.09 | 13.95% | $0.28 | -96.55% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $8.09 | 10.78% | $-10.09 | -224.69% |
| $31.52 - $98.91 | 890 |
| $98.91 - $166.29 | 84 |
| $166.29 - $233.68 | 17 |
| $233.68 - $301.07 | 6 |
| $301.07 - $368.46 | 0 |
| $368.46 - $435.85 | 2 |
| $435.85 - $503.24 | 0 |
| $503.24 - $570.63 | 0 |
| $570.63 - $638.02 | 0 |
| $638.02 - $705.41 | 0 |
| $705.41 - $772.80 | 0 |
| $772.80 - $840.19 | 0 |
| $840.19 - $907.58 | 0 |
| $907.58 - $974.97 | 0 |
| $974.97 - $1,042.35 | 0 |
| $1,042.35 - $1,109.74 | 0 |
| $1,109.74 - $1,177.13 | 0 |
| $1,177.13 - $1,244.52 | 0 |
| $1,244.52 - $1,311.91 | 0 |
| $1,311.91 - $1,379.30 | 1 |