Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.91 |
| 5Y Range | -39.46 – -17.23 |
| 5Y Selected | -28.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.87% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-6.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -207.30% |
| 10Y Range | -46.80 – -20.50 |
| 10Y Selected | -33.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.87% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $-7.53 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -227.37% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.4790 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9123 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.4727 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0896 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0156 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4766 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6975 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.1014 |
| Safety Score | 0.2237 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 9.58% | 8.96% | 8.34% | 7.72% | 7.10% | 6.48% | 5.86% | 5.24% | 4.62% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 196,346.33 | 213,937.69 | 231,778.87 | 249,671.07 | 267,396.70 | 284,723.13 | 301,407.21 | 317,200.46 | 331,854.87 | 345,129.06 |
| EBITDA | 28,319.77 | 30,857.04 | 33,430.34 | 36,011.00 | 38,567.64 | 41,066.70 | 43,473.10 | 45,751.02 | 47,864.68 | 49,779.27 |
| D&A | -24,044.50 | -26,198.73 | -28,383.55 | -30,574.62 | -32,745.30 | -34,867.08 | -36,910.21 | -38,844.24 | -40,638.82 | -42,264.37 |
| EBIT | 4,275.28 | 4,658.32 | 5,046.79 | 5,436.38 | 5,822.34 | 6,199.61 | 6,562.89 | 6,906.78 | 7,225.87 | 7,514.90 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,199.85 | -1,307.34 | -1,416.37 | -1,525.71 | -1,634.02 | -1,739.90 | -1,841.86 | -1,938.37 | -2,027.92 | -2,109.04 |
| NOPAT | 3,075.43 | 3,350.97 | 3,630.43 | 3,910.68 | 4,188.32 | 4,459.71 | 4,721.04 | 4,968.41 | 5,197.95 | 5,405.87 |
| Capital Expenditures | -40,518.85 | -44,149.08 | -47,830.86 | -51,523.17 | -55,181.10 | -58,756.66 | -62,199.65 | -65,458.81 | -68,482.96 | -71,222.28 |
| NWC Investment | 4,014.28 | 4,114.15 | 4,172.58 | 4,184.51 | 4,145.55 | 4,052.19 | 3,901.96 | 3,693.62 | 3,427.28 | 3,104.48 |
| (+) D&A | 24,044.50 | 26,198.73 | 28,383.55 | 30,574.62 | 32,745.30 | 34,867.08 | 36,910.21 | 38,844.24 | 40,638.82 | 42,264.37 |
| Free Cash Flow | -9,384.64 | -10,485.23 | -11,644.30 | -12,853.36 | -14,101.93 | -15,377.67 | -16,666.44 | -17,952.54 | -19,218.92 | -20,447.56 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 | 17,835,619,020.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | -9,325.82 | -10,186.29 | -10,622.90 | -11,011.28 | -11,344.65 | -11,617.02 | -11,823.29 | -11,959.49 | -12,022.85 | -12,011.89 | Raw: -425,029.37 -331,342.54 |
Raw: -616,285.28 -350,830.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -383,833.47 | -462,756.05 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34,827.58 | 34,827.58 |
| Equity Value | -418,661.04 | -497,583.63 |
| (/) Shares Out | 17,835.62 | 17,835.62 |
| Fair Value | $-23.47 | $-27.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.87% | 80.87% |
| Buy Price | $-4.49 | $-5.34 |
| Current Price | $5.91 | $5.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -175.98% | -190.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | -9,317.10 | -10,142.58 | -10,478.92 | -10,760.98 | -10,983.64 | -11,142.70 | -11,235.05 | -11,258.75 | -11,213.09 | -11,098.65 | Raw: -294,007.13 -220,872.44 |
Raw: -426,305.28 -223,185.30 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -272,555.67 | -330,816.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34,827.58 | 34,827.58 |
| Equity Value | -307,383.24 | -365,644.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 17,835.62 | 17,835.62 |
| Fair Value | $-17.23 | $-20.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.87% | 80.87% |
| Buy Price | $-3.30 | $-3.92 |
| Current Price | $5.91 | $5.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -155.79% | -166.36% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | -9,334.62 | -10,230.59 | -10,770.24 | -11,269.84 | -11,721.11 | -12,116.29 | -12,448.33 | -12,711.09 | -12,899.56 | -13,009.98 | Raw: -760,801.87 -615,681.46 |
Raw: -1,103,149.62 -683,382.75 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -669,007.86 | -799,894.39 |
| (-) Net Debt | 34,827.58 | 34,827.58 |
| Equity Value | -703,835.43 | -834,721.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 17,835.62 | 17,835.62 |
| Fair Value | $-39.46 | $-46.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.87% | 80.87% |
| Buy Price | $-7.55 | $-8.95 |
| Current Price | $5.91 | $5.91 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -227.74% | -251.49% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 322,409.16 | 609,574.50 | 1,152,514.00 | 2,179,042.13 | 4,119,884.52 | 7,789,408.14 | 14,727,325.18 | 27,844,748.06 | 52,645,676.31 | 99,536,445.01 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% | 89.07% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 32.24 | 60.96 | 115.25 | 217.90 | 411.99 | 778.94 | 1,472.73 | 2,784.47 | 5,264.57 | 9,953.64 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 30.60 | 52.22 | 92.72 | 164.62 | 292.27 | 518.91 | 921.30 | 1,635.74 | 2,904.18 | 5,156.26 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $2.34 | 5.62% | $12.24 | 422.95% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.55 | 13.99% | $6.09 | 138.82% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $3.13 | 20.72% | $1.05 | -66.39% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $3.15 | 28.88% | $1.84 | -41.65% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $3.94 | 26.86% | $2.33 | -40.99% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $4.64 | 19.38% | $-9.12 | -296.53% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $2.36 | 6.23% | $-12.60 | -634.10% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $2.63 | -7.90% | $-14.41 | -648.02% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $2.80 | -8.93% | $-15.22 | -643.60% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $3.06 | -3.73% | $-27.23 | -989.93% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.64 | 1.82% | $-14.42 | -496.11% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.74 | 8.08% | $-25.77 | -1,040.53% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $4.53 | 21.75% | $-26.27 | -680.02% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $1.52 | 21.73% | $-15.05 | -1,090.07% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $1.23 | 23.12% | $-13.66 | -1,210.68% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $1.23 | 17.36% | $-13.26 | -1,178.03% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $1.23 | 14.89% | $-7.70 | -726.02% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.23 | 28.56% | $-5.03 | -509.21% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $1.23 | 33.95% | $5.18 | 320.91% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.23 | 34.05% | $1.63 | 32.88% |
| 1999 | 1999-12-31 | $1.23 | 39.14% | $-0.28 | -122.96% |
| 1998 | 1998-12-31 | $1.23 | 48.42% | $1.11 | -9.40% |
| 1997 | 1997-12-31 | $1.23 | 65.94% | $0.00 | -100.32% |
| 1996 | 1996-12-31 | $1.23 | 69.54% | $-0.01 | -100.59% |
| 1995 | 1995-12-31 | $1.23 | 61.07% | $-0.01 | -100.78% |
| $-3,186.61 - $-3,027.72 | 1 |
| $-3,027.72 - $-2,868.84 | 0 |
| $-2,868.84 - $-2,709.95 | 0 |
| $-2,709.95 - $-2,551.07 | 0 |
| $-2,551.07 - $-2,392.18 | 0 |
| $-2,392.18 - $-2,233.29 | 0 |
| $-2,233.29 - $-2,074.41 | 0 |
| $-2,074.41 - $-1,915.52 | 0 |
| $-1,915.52 - $-1,756.64 | 0 |
| $-1,756.64 - $-1,597.75 | 0 |
| $-1,597.75 - $-1,438.87 | 0 |
| $-1,438.87 - $-1,279.98 | 0 |
| $-1,279.98 - $-1,121.10 | 0 |
| $-1,121.10 - $-962.21 | 0 |
| $-962.21 - $-803.32 | 0 |
| $-803.32 - $-644.44 | 0 |
| $-644.44 - $-485.55 | 0 |
| $-485.55 - $-326.67 | 2 |
| $-326.67 - $-167.78 | 1 |
| $-167.78 - $-8.90 | 995 |