Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $41.60 |
| 5Y Range | 58.57 – 109.90 |
| 5Y Selected | 84.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.72% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $18.05 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.61% |
| 10Y Range | 60.76 – 110.02 |
| 10Y Selected | 85.39 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.72% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $18.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.01% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0570 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0722 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8748 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.6958 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.8627 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7010 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1707 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0148 |
| Safety Score | 0.2143 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | -1.24% | -0.66% | -0.08% | 0.51% | 1.09% | 1.67% | 2.25% | 2.84% | 3.42% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,030.32 | 1,023.53 | 1,022.74 | 1,027.90 | 1,039.09 | 1,056.44 | 1,080.24 | 1,110.86 | 1,148.83 | 1,194.78 |
| EBITDA | 241.43 | 239.84 | 239.66 | 240.87 | 243.49 | 247.55 | 253.13 | 260.31 | 269.20 | 279.97 |
| D&A | -12.03 | -11.95 | -11.94 | -12.00 | -12.13 | -12.33 | -12.61 | -12.97 | -13.41 | -13.94 |
| EBIT | 229.41 | 227.90 | 227.72 | 228.87 | 231.36 | 235.22 | 240.52 | 247.34 | 255.79 | 266.03 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -46.34 | -46.03 | -46.00 | -46.23 | -46.73 | -47.51 | -48.58 | -49.96 | -51.67 | -53.74 |
| NOPAT | 183.07 | 181.86 | 181.72 | 182.64 | 184.63 | 187.71 | 191.94 | 197.38 | 204.13 | 212.29 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4.68 | -4.65 | -4.64 | -4.67 | -4.72 | -4.80 | -4.91 | -5.04 | -5.22 | -5.43 |
| NWC Investment | 1.30 | 0.68 | 0.08 | -0.52 | -1.12 | -1.74 | -2.39 | -3.07 | -3.81 | -4.61 |
| (+) D&A | 12.03 | 11.95 | 11.94 | 12.00 | 12.13 | 12.33 | 12.61 | 12.97 | 13.41 | 13.94 |
| Free Cash Flow | 191.71 | 189.84 | 189.09 | 189.45 | 190.91 | 193.50 | 197.26 | 202.23 | 208.51 | 216.20 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 | 55,897,087.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 190.50 | 184.51 | 172.50 | 162.12 | 153.34 | 145.88 | 139.59 | 134.33 | 130.00 | 126.52 | Raw: 4,326.70 3,366.91 |
Raw: 4,899.82 2,777.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,229.89 | 4,317.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.78 | -0.78 |
| Equity Value | 4,230.67 | 4,318.02 |
| (/) Shares Out | 55.90 | 55.90 |
| Fair Value | $75.69 | $77.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.72% | 81.72% |
| Buy Price | $13.84 | $14.12 |
| Current Price | $41.60 | $41.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -66.74% | -66.05% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 190.33 | 183.73 | 170.18 | 158.43 | 148.47 | 139.93 | 132.65 | 126.46 | 121.25 | 116.91 | Raw: 3,229.54 2,421.86 |
Raw: 3,657.33 1,907.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,273.00 | 3,395.34 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.78 | -0.78 |
| Equity Value | 3,273.78 | 3,396.12 |
| (/) Shares Out | 55.90 | 55.90 |
| Fair Value | $58.57 | $60.76 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.72% | 81.72% |
| Buy Price | $10.71 | $11.11 |
| Current Price | $41.60 | $41.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -74.26% | -73.30% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 190.68 | 185.29 | 174.88 | 165.92 | 158.43 | 152.15 | 146.96 | 142.76 | 139.47 | 137.03 | Raw: 6,520.17 5,266.88 |
Raw: 7,383.85 4,555.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,142.08 | 6,148.96 |
| (-) Net Debt | -0.78 | -0.78 |
| Equity Value | 6,142.87 | 6,149.74 |
| (/) Shares Out | 55.90 | 55.90 |
| Fair Value | $109.90 | $110.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 81.72% | 81.72% |
| Buy Price | $20.09 | $20.11 |
| Current Price | $41.60 | $41.60 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -51.71% | -51.66% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 2,267.12 | 4,731.02 | 9,872.65 | 20,602.16 | 42,992.43 | 89,716.25 | 187,219.16 | 390,687.44 | 815,283.41 | 1,701,326.90 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% | 108.68% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.23 | 0.47 | 0.99 | 2.06 | 4.30 | 8.97 | 18.72 | 39.07 | 81.53 | 170.13 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.22 | 0.40 | 0.79 | 1.55 | 3.04 | 5.96 | 11.67 | 22.86 | 44.78 | 87.71 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $37.00 | -1.47% | $59.15 | 59.87% |
| $45.33 - $56.62 | 44 |
| $56.62 - $67.90 | 209 |
| $67.90 - $79.18 | 274 |
| $79.18 - $90.47 | 193 |
| $90.47 - $101.75 | 125 |
| $101.75 - $113.04 | 71 |
| $113.04 - $124.32 | 35 |
| $124.32 - $135.61 | 15 |
| $135.61 - $146.89 | 13 |
| $146.89 - $158.17 | 10 |
| $158.17 - $169.46 | 4 |
| $169.46 - $180.74 | 1 |
| $180.74 - $192.03 | 2 |
| $192.03 - $203.31 | 1 |
| $203.31 - $214.59 | 0 |
| $214.59 - $225.88 | 2 |
| $225.88 - $237.16 | 0 |
| $237.16 - $248.45 | 0 |
| $248.45 - $259.73 | 0 |
| $259.73 - $271.02 | 1 |