Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.65 |
| 5Y Range | 10.18 – 22.24 |
| 5Y Selected | 16.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.21% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $10.43 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 124.37% |
| 10Y Range | 11.97 – 25.64 |
| 10Y Selected | 18.81 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.21% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $12.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 160.29% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9337 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9476 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9264 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9616 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9430 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9301 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1415 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5011 |
| Safety Score | 0.6436 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 14.08% | 12.96% | 11.84% | 10.72% | 9.60% | 8.48% | 7.36% | 6.24% | 5.12% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 29,548.20 | 33,377.17 | 37,328.56 | 41,329.73 | 45,296.96 | 49,137.78 | 52,754.02 | 56,045.66 | 58,915.08 | 61,271.69 |
| EBITDA | 6,852.56 | 7,740.54 | 8,656.92 | 9,584.83 | 10,504.88 | 11,395.61 | 12,234.26 | 12,997.62 | 13,663.08 | 14,209.60 |
| D&A | -1,361.28 | -1,537.68 | -1,719.72 | -1,904.06 | -2,086.83 | -2,263.77 | -2,430.37 | -2,582.02 | -2,714.21 | -2,822.78 |
| EBIT | 5,491.28 | 6,202.86 | 6,937.19 | 7,680.77 | 8,418.05 | 9,131.83 | 9,803.88 | 10,415.60 | 10,948.86 | 11,386.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,545.12 | -1,745.34 | -1,951.97 | -2,161.19 | -2,368.64 | -2,569.49 | -2,758.59 | -2,930.71 | -3,080.76 | -3,203.99 |
| NOPAT | 3,946.16 | 4,457.52 | 4,985.23 | 5,519.58 | 6,049.41 | 6,562.35 | 7,045.30 | 7,484.89 | 7,868.10 | 8,182.83 |
| Capital Expenditures | -993.50 | -1,122.25 | -1,255.10 | -1,389.64 | -1,523.03 | -1,652.17 | -1,773.76 | -1,884.43 | -1,980.91 | -2,060.15 |
| NWC Investment | -25.03 | -26.29 | -27.13 | -27.47 | -27.24 | -26.37 | -24.83 | -22.60 | -19.70 | -16.18 |
| (+) D&A | 1,361.28 | 1,537.68 | 1,719.72 | 1,904.06 | 2,086.83 | 2,263.77 | 2,430.37 | 2,582.02 | 2,714.21 | 2,822.78 |
| Free Cash Flow | 4,288.91 | 4,846.67 | 5,422.72 | 6,006.53 | 6,585.97 | 7,147.58 | 7,677.09 | 8,159.88 | 8,581.71 | 8,929.28 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 | 11,476,025,250.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 3/31/25 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 9/29/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,262.64 | 4,642.64 | 4,881.90 | 5,085.26 | 5,243.55 | 5,351.58 | 5,405.50 | 5,403.07 | 5,343.77 | 5,228.86 | Raw: 174,712.12 134,892.39 |
Raw: 236,875.38 134,514.52 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 159,008.38 | 185,363.30 |
| (-) Net Debt | -136.18 | -136.18 |
| Equity Value | 159,144.56 | 185,499.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11,476.03 | 11,476.03 |
| Fair Value | $13.87 | $16.16 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.21% | 39.21% |
| Buy Price | $8.43 | $9.83 |
| Current Price | $4.65 | $4.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 81.29% | 111.32% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,258.65 | 4,612.32 | 4,804.38 | 4,957.89 | 5,064.59 | 5,120.78 | 5,124.18 | 5,074.16 | 4,971.71 | 4,819.49 | Raw: 125,230.89 92,952.69 |
Raw: 169,788.54 88,454.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 116,650.52 | 137,262.33 |
| (-) Net Debt | -136.18 | -136.18 |
| Equity Value | 116,786.70 | 137,398.51 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11,476.03 | 11,476.03 |
| Fair Value | $10.18 | $11.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.21% | 39.21% |
| Buy Price | $6.19 | $7.28 |
| Current Price | $4.65 | $4.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 33.04% | 56.52% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 4,266.66 | 4,673.45 | 4,961.42 | 5,217.15 | 5,430.62 | 5,595.12 | 5,705.15 | 5,756.72 | 5,747.58 | 5,677.39 | Raw: 287,016.95 230,593.77 |
Raw: 389,138.72 241,071.93 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 255,143.08 | 294,103.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | -136.18 | -136.18 |
| Equity Value | 255,279.26 | 294,239.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 11,476.03 | 11,476.03 |
| Fair Value | $22.24 | $25.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 39.21% | 39.21% |
| Buy Price | $13.52 | $15.59 |
| Current Price | $4.65 | $4.65 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 190.81% | 235.19% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 94,562.20 | 182,059.94 | 350,518.72 | 674,851.23 | 1,299,286.33 | 2,501,506.83 | 4,816,133.52 | 9,272,467.99 | 17,852,217.43 | 34,370,748.70 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% | 92.53% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 9.46 | 18.21 | 35.05 | 67.49 | 129.93 | 250.15 | 481.61 | 927.25 | 1,785.22 | 3,437.07 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.90 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.70 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 9.34 | 16.39 | 29.68 | 53.73 | 97.28 | 176.13 | 318.90 | 577.39 | 1,045.40 | 1,892.77 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $1.66 | 15.89% | $1.44 | -12.98% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $1.64 | 14.45% | $3.16 | 92.91% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $0.62 | 11.33% | $2.06 | 235.19% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $0.59 | 14.08% | $3.06 | 415.96% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $0.52 | 13.79% | $2.09 | 305.83% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $0.66 | 11.92% | $0.50 | -24.34% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $0.94 | 5.81% | $-1.09 | -216.83% |
| 2013 | 2013-03-31 | $1.89 | -4.95% | $0.44 | -76.66% |
| 2012 | 2012-03-31 | $1.97 | -12.87% | $0.76 | -61.49% |
| 2011 | 2011-03-31 | $1.95 | -11.53% | $0.00 | -100.00% |
| 2010 | 2010-03-31 | $1.53 | -2.99% | $2.82 | 84.12% |
| 2009 | 2009-03-31 | $0.48 | 9.35% | $4.45 | 818.65% |
| 2008 | 2008-03-31 | $1.31 | 19.05% | $-0.38 | -129.17% |
| 2007 | 2007-03-31 | $3.37 | 11.85% | $0.14 | -95.98% |
| $8.33 - $12.21 | 142 |
| $12.21 - $16.08 | 371 |
| $16.08 - $19.95 | 242 |
| $19.95 - $23.83 | 123 |
| $23.83 - $27.70 | 50 |
| $27.70 - $31.58 | 28 |
| $31.58 - $35.45 | 17 |
| $35.45 - $39.32 | 11 |
| $39.32 - $43.20 | 5 |
| $43.20 - $47.07 | 2 |
| $47.07 - $50.95 | 2 |
| $50.95 - $54.82 | 3 |
| $54.82 - $58.69 | 1 |
| $58.69 - $62.57 | 2 |
| $62.57 - $66.44 | 0 |
| $66.44 - $70.32 | 0 |
| $70.32 - $74.19 | 0 |
| $74.19 - $78.06 | 0 |
| $78.06 - $81.94 | 0 |
| $81.94 - $85.81 | 1 |