| Current Price | $2.34 |
| 5Y Range | 2.99 – 7.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 5.23 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.37% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.07 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -54.18% |
| 10Y Range | 3.17 – 7.63 |
| 10Y Selected | 5.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.37% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.11 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.67% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0798 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5520 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.1526 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4733 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0380 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2214 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1230 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0012 |
| Safety Score | 0.2051 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.15% | 3.24% | 3.34% | 3.43% | 3.53% | 3.62% | 3.72% | 3.81% | 3.91% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 12,322.50 | 12,722.05 | 13,146.60 | 13,597.76 | 14,077.29 | 14,587.06 | 15,129.10 | 15,705.61 | 16,318.96 | 16,971.72 |
| EBITDA | 1,420.38 | 1,466.43 | 1,515.37 | 1,567.37 | 1,622.65 | 1,681.41 | 1,743.88 | 1,810.34 | 1,881.04 | 1,956.28 |
| D&A | -787.16 | -812.68 | -839.80 | -868.62 | -899.25 | -931.82 | -966.44 | -1,003.27 | -1,042.45 | -1,084.15 |
| EBIT | 633.22 | 653.75 | 675.57 | 698.75 | 723.39 | 749.59 | 777.44 | 807.07 | 838.59 | 872.13 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -176.96 | -182.70 | -188.80 | -195.28 | -202.17 | -209.49 | -217.27 | -225.55 | -234.36 | -243.73 |
| NOPAT | 456.25 | 471.05 | 486.77 | 503.47 | 521.23 | 540.10 | 560.17 | 581.52 | 604.23 | 628.40 |
| Capital Expenditures | -636.68 | -657.32 | -679.25 | -702.57 | -727.34 | -753.68 | -781.69 | -811.47 | -843.16 | -876.89 |
| NWC Investment | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.55 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.80 |
| (+) D&A | 787.16 | 812.68 | 839.80 | 868.62 | 899.25 | 931.82 | 966.44 | 1,003.27 | 1,042.45 | 1,084.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 607.20 | 626.90 | 647.84 | 670.08 | 693.73 | 718.87 | 745.59 | 774.02 | 804.27 | 836.46 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 | 4,610,000,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 603.56 | 610.16 | 593.73 | 577.92 | 563.39 | 549.73 | 536.88 | 524.82 | 513.49 | 502.87 | Raw: 21,270.67 16,762.57 |
Raw: 25,646.94 14,961.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 19,711.33 | 20,538.52 |
| (-) Net Debt | 220.28 | 220.28 |
| Equity Value | 19,491.05 | 20,318.23 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,610.00 | 4,610.00 |
| Fair Value | $4.23 | $4.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.37% | 83.37% |
| Buy Price | $0.70 | $0.73 |
| Current Price | $2.34 | $2.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -69.95% | -68.68% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 602.99 | 607.59 | 585.72 | 564.75 | 545.41 | 527.22 | 510.10 | 493.99 | 478.82 | 464.54 | Raw: 14,626.38 11,106.52 |
Raw: 17,635.64 9,459.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,012.98 | 14,840.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | 220.28 | 220.28 |
| Equity Value | 13,792.70 | 14,620.48 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,610.00 | 4,610.00 |
| Fair Value | $2.99 | $3.17 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.37% | 83.37% |
| Buy Price | $0.50 | $0.53 |
| Current Price | $2.34 | $2.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.74% | -77.46% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 604.13 | 612.76 | 601.93 | 591.53 | 582.14 | 573.42 | 565.35 | 557.90 | 551.05 | 544.78 | Raw: 38,664.96 31,633.55 |
Raw: 46,619.97 29,603.27 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 34,626.04 | 35,388.25 |
| (-) Net Debt | 220.28 | 220.28 |
| Equity Value | 34,405.76 | 35,167.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 4,610.00 | 4,610.00 |
| Fair Value | $7.46 | $7.63 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.37% | 83.37% |
| Buy Price | $1.24 | $1.27 |
| Current Price | $2.34 | $2.34 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -46.96% | -45.78% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 43,313.81 | 76,230.09 | 134,161.05 | 236,116.57 | 415,553.06 | 731,352.08 | 1,287,142.16 | 2,265,304.22 | 3,986,819.28 | 7,016,597.53 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% | 75.99% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 4.33 | 7.62 | 13.42 | 23.61 | 41.56 | 73.14 | 128.71 | 226.53 | 398.68 | 701.66 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.15 | 6.57 | 10.90 | 18.06 | 29.92 | 49.59 | 82.18 | 136.19 | 225.69 | 374.02 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.72 | 2.43% | $2.58 | 50.09% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $2.16 | 6.74% | $8.33 | 285.52% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $2.09 | 6.85% | $7.46 | 256.86% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.92 | 5.48% | $3.32 | 72.86% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $1.77 | 5.09% | $3.93 | 122.03% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.17 | 3.15% | $3.18 | 46.72% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.78 | -0.01% | $5.36 | 41.90% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.18 | -4.19% | $3.33 | -20.27% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $4.77 | -4.72% | $2.59 | -45.70% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $4.76 | 1.85% | $2.19 | -53.97% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $4.18 | 10.00% | $2.99 | -28.55% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.80 | 16.78% | $11.21 | 300.20% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $4.72 | 18.53% | $10.54 | 123.32% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $3.47 | 18.39% | $13.08 | 277.07% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $2.35 | 10.65% | $3.69 | 57.23% |
| $1.27 - $4.83 | 610 |
| $4.83 - $8.39 | 311 |
| $8.39 - $11.95 | 59 |
| $11.95 - $15.51 | 9 |
| $15.51 - $19.07 | 6 |
| $19.07 - $22.63 | 1 |
| $22.63 - $26.19 | 0 |
| $26.19 - $29.75 | 0 |
| $29.75 - $33.31 | 0 |
| $33.31 - $36.87 | 1 |
| $36.87 - $40.43 | 0 |
| $40.43 - $43.99 | 0 |
| $43.99 - $47.55 | 0 |
| $47.55 - $51.11 | 0 |
| $51.11 - $54.67 | 1 |
| $54.67 - $58.23 | 1 |
| $58.23 - $61.79 | 0 |
| $61.79 - $65.35 | 0 |
| $65.35 - $68.91 | 0 |
| $68.91 - $72.47 | 1 |