Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Valuations
Miscellaneous
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

China BlueChemical Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.34
5Y Range2.99 – 7.46
5Y Selected5.23
(-) Safety Margin83.37%
5Y Buy Price$1.07
Upside (to Buy Price)-54.18%
10Y Range3.17 – 7.63
10Y Selected5.40
(-) Safety Margin83.37%
10Y Buy Price$1.11
Upside (to Buy Price)-52.67%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0798
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.5520
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1526
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.4733
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0380
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2214
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1230
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0012
Safety Score0.2051

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth3.15%3.24%3.34%3.43%3.53%3.62%3.72%3.81%3.91%4.00%
Revenue12,322.5012,722.0513,146.6013,597.7614,077.2914,587.0615,129.1015,705.6116,318.9616,971.72
EBITDA1,420.381,466.431,515.371,567.371,622.651,681.411,743.881,810.341,881.041,956.28
D&A-787.16-812.68-839.80-868.62-899.25-931.82-966.44-1,003.27-1,042.45-1,084.15
EBIT633.22653.75675.57698.75723.39749.59777.44807.07838.59872.13
Pro forma Taxes-176.96-182.70-188.80-195.28-202.17-209.49-217.27-225.55-234.36-243.73
NOPAT456.25471.05486.77503.47521.23540.10560.17581.52604.23628.40
Capital Expenditures-636.68-657.32-679.25-702.57-727.34-753.68-781.69-811.47-843.16-876.89
NWC Investment0.460.490.520.550.590.630.670.710.750.80
(+) D&A787.16812.68839.80868.62899.25931.82966.441,003.271,042.451,084.15
Free Cash Flow607.20626.90647.84670.08693.73718.87745.59774.02804.27836.46
Diluted Shares Outstanding4,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.004,610,000,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.20%Terminal Growth: 2.85%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.760.720.680.640.60
PV UFCF603.56610.16593.73577.92563.39549.73536.88524.82513.49502.87
Raw: 21,270.67
16,762.57
Raw: 25,646.94
14,961.96

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,711.3320,538.52
(-) Net Debt220.28220.28
Equity Value19,491.0520,318.23
(/) Shares Out4,610.004,610.00
Fair Value$4.23$4.41
(-) Safety Margin83.37%83.37%
Buy Price$0.70$0.73
Current Price$2.34$2.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.95%-68.68%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.20%Terminal Growth: 2.35%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.790.730.680.640.600.56
PV UFCF602.99607.59585.72564.75545.41527.22510.10493.99478.82464.54
Raw: 14,626.38
11,106.52
Raw: 17,635.64
9,459.63

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,012.9814,840.77
(-) Net Debt220.28220.28
Equity Value13,792.7014,620.48
(/) Shares Out4,610.004,610.00
Fair Value$2.99$3.17
(-) Safety Margin83.37%83.37%
Buy Price$0.50$0.53
Current Price$2.34$2.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-78.74%-77.46%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.20%Terminal Growth: 3.35%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.800.760.720.690.65
PV UFCF604.13612.76601.93591.53582.14573.42565.35557.90551.05544.78
Raw: 38,664.96
31,633.55
Raw: 46,619.97
29,603.27

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value34,626.0435,388.25
(-) Net Debt220.28220.28
Equity Value34,405.7635,167.97
(/) Shares Out4,610.004,610.00
Fair Value$7.46$7.63
(-) Safety Margin83.37%83.37%
Buy Price$1.24$1.27
Current Price$2.34$2.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-46.96%-45.78%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.34
WACC Used6.2%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH75.99%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue43,313.8176,230.09134,161.05236,116.57415,553.06731,352.081,287,142.162,265,304.223,986,819.287,016,597.53
Constant Implied Growth75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%75.99%
Implied Free Cash Flow4.337.6213.4223.6141.5673.14128.71226.53398.68701.66
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.680.640.600.570.53
Present Value of Implied FCF4.156.5710.9018.0629.9249.5982.18136.19225.69374.02

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.722.43%$2.5850.09%
20182018-12-31$2.166.74%$8.33285.52%
20172017-12-31$2.096.85%$7.46256.86%
20162016-12-31$1.925.48%$3.3272.86%
20152015-12-31$1.775.09%$3.93122.03%
20142014-12-31$2.173.15%$3.1846.72%
20132013-12-31$3.78-0.01%$5.3641.90%
20122012-12-31$4.18-4.19%$3.33-20.27%
20112011-12-31$4.77-4.72%$2.59-45.70%
20102010-12-31$4.761.85%$2.19-53.97%
20092009-12-31$4.1810.00%$2.99-28.55%
20082008-12-31$2.8016.78%$11.21300.20%
20072007-12-31$4.7218.53%$10.54123.32%
20062006-12-31$3.4718.39%$13.08277.07%
20052005-12-31$2.3510.65%$3.6957.23%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$5.21
Median
$4.43
10th Percentile
$3.15
90th Percentile
$7.72

Fair Value Distribution

$1.27 - $4.83
610
$4.83 - $8.39
311
$8.39 - $11.95
59
$11.95 - $15.51
9
$15.51 - $19.07
6
$19.07 - $22.63
1
$22.63 - $26.19
0
$26.19 - $29.75
0
$29.75 - $33.31
0
$33.31 - $36.87
1
$36.87 - $40.43
0
$40.43 - $43.99
0
$43.99 - $47.55
0
$47.55 - $51.11
0
$51.11 - $54.67
1
$54.67 - $58.23
1
$58.23 - $61.79
0
$61.79 - $65.35
0
$65.35 - $68.91
0
$68.91 - $72.47
1