Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $8.61 |
| 5Y Range | -84.11 – -35.69 |
| 5Y Selected | -59.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.10% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $-23.83 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -376.81% |
| 10Y Range | 22.97 – 104.75 |
| 10Y Selected | 63.86 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.10% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $25.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 195.13% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9504 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9480 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6997 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2986 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0780 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8143 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9943 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5284 |
| Safety Score | 0.3979 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 17.00% | 15.56% | 14.11% | 12.67% | 11.22% | 9.78% | 8.33% | 6.89% | 5.44% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 185,502.69 | 214,362.47 | 244,615.26 | 275,603.63 | 306,536.02 | 336,511.58 | 364,556.81 | 389,672.60 | 410,889.11 | 427,324.67 |
| EBITDA | 12,624.86 | 14,588.99 | 16,647.92 | 18,756.92 | 20,862.10 | 22,902.16 | 24,810.85 | 26,520.17 | 27,964.12 | 29,082.68 |
| D&A | -1,229.31 | -1,420.56 | -1,621.04 | -1,826.40 | -2,031.38 | -2,230.03 | -2,415.88 | -2,582.32 | -2,722.92 | -2,831.84 |
| EBIT | 11,395.56 | 13,168.43 | 15,026.88 | 16,930.52 | 18,830.72 | 20,672.13 | 22,394.97 | 23,937.85 | 25,241.20 | 26,250.84 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -5,226.57 | -6,039.70 | -6,892.08 | -7,765.18 | -8,636.70 | -9,481.27 | -10,271.45 | -10,979.09 | -11,576.87 | -12,039.94 |
| NOPAT | 6,168.99 | 7,128.73 | 8,134.81 | 9,165.34 | 10,194.01 | 11,190.86 | 12,123.52 | 12,958.76 | 13,664.33 | 14,210.90 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,155.35 | -1,335.10 | -1,523.52 | -1,716.52 | -1,909.18 | -2,095.87 | -2,270.54 | -2,426.97 | -2,559.11 | -2,661.48 |
| NWC Investment | -11,947.74 | -12,791.31 | -13,408.72 | -13,734.75 | -13,709.94 | -13,285.85 | -12,430.28 | -11,131.89 | -9,403.64 | -7,284.61 |
| (+) D&A | 1,229.31 | 1,420.56 | 1,621.04 | 1,826.40 | 2,031.38 | 2,230.03 | 2,415.88 | 2,582.32 | 2,722.92 | 2,831.84 |
| Free Cash Flow | -5,704.80 | -5,577.12 | -5,176.39 | -4,459.53 | -3,393.72 | -1,960.83 | -161.42 | 1,982.23 | 4,424.50 | 7,096.65 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 | 2,533,981,922.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | -5,670.61 | -5,425.04 | -4,741.54 | -3,846.63 | -2,756.55 | -1,499.78 | -116.26 | 1,344.43 | 2,825.85 | 4,268.12 | Raw: -112,794.75 -88,905.39 |
Raw: 235,866.57 137,657.39 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -111,345.76 | 122,039.38 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,804.50 | 10,804.50 |
| Equity Value | -122,150.26 | 111,234.88 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,533.98 | 2,533.98 |
| Fair Value | $-48.20 | $43.90 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.10% | 64.10% |
| Buy Price | $-17.31 | $15.76 |
| Current Price | $8.61 | $8.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -300.99% | 83.03% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | -5,665.30 | -5,401.70 | -4,677.10 | -3,758.95 | -2,668.59 | -1,438.38 | -110.46 | 1,265.45 | 2,635.02 | 3,942.76 | Raw: -75,659.51 -57,462.38 |
Raw: 158,212.59 84,899.01 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -79,634.03 | 69,021.75 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,804.50 | 10,804.50 |
| Equity Value | -90,438.53 | 58,217.25 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,533.98 | 2,533.98 |
| Fair Value | $-35.69 | $22.97 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.10% | 64.10% |
| Buy Price | $-12.81 | $8.25 |
| Current Price | $8.61 | $8.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -248.81% | -4.21% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.69 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | -5,675.98 | -5,448.71 | -4,807.49 | -3,937.21 | -2,848.28 | -1,564.42 | -122.43 | 1,429.17 | 3,032.51 | 4,623.80 | Raw: -219,480.26 -179,599.99 |
Raw: 458,958.04 291,556.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | -202,317.66 | 276,237.48 |
| (-) Net Debt | 10,804.50 | 10,804.50 |
| Equity Value | -213,122.16 | 265,432.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,533.98 | 2,533.98 |
| Fair Value | $-84.11 | $104.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 64.10% | 64.10% |
| Buy Price | $-30.19 | $37.61 |
| Current Price | $8.61 | $8.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -450.68% | 336.76% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 438,586.50 | 671,826.49 | 1,029,103.37 | 1,576,379.83 | 2,414,697.55 | 3,698,832.05 | 5,665,868.41 | 8,678,973.36 | 13,294,445.46 | 20,364,422.46 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% | 53.18% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 43.86 | 67.18 | 102.91 | 157.64 | 241.47 | 369.88 | 566.59 | 867.90 | 1,329.44 | 2,036.44 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 42.05 | 57.95 | 83.59 | 120.57 | 173.92 | 250.87 | 361.87 | 521.98 | 752.93 | 1,086.06 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $8.55 | 18.63% | $-167.11 | -2,054.55% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $5.16 | 17.80% | $-281.11 | -5,547.93% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $9.09 | 15.40% | $-217.88 | -2,496.88% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $5.62 | 14.61% | $30.16 | 436.69% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6.44 | 18.48% | $-5.42 | -184.22% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $6.16 | 24.48% | $-38.32 | -722.06% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $9.24 | 17.32% | $-11.73 | -226.95% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $11.41 | 8.67% | $30.47 | 167.03% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $2.73 | -4.96% | $-22.48 | -923.27% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $7.31 | -3.63% | $-70.38 | -1,062.73% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $10.70 | 14.49% | $42.14 | 293.80% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $2.85 | 24.80% | $-119.22 | -4,283.29% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $11.40 | 36.60% | $-411.71 | -3,711.45% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $14.50 | 29.26% | $-111.72 | -870.48% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $9.09 | 7.70% | $-5.49 | -160.41% |
| $7.68 - $61.04 | 717 |
| $61.04 - $114.39 | 215 |
| $114.39 - $167.74 | 42 |
| $167.74 - $221.10 | 13 |
| $221.10 - $274.45 | 5 |
| $274.45 - $327.80 | 4 |
| $327.80 - $381.16 | 1 |
| $381.16 - $434.51 | 0 |
| $434.51 - $487.86 | 1 |
| $487.86 - $541.22 | 0 |
| $541.22 - $594.57 | 1 |
| $594.57 - $647.92 | 0 |
| $647.92 - $701.28 | 0 |
| $701.28 - $754.63 | 0 |
| $754.63 - $807.98 | 0 |
| $807.98 - $861.34 | 0 |
| $861.34 - $914.69 | 0 |
| $914.69 - $968.04 | 0 |
| $968.04 - $1,021.39 | 0 |
| $1,021.39 - $1,074.75 | 1 |