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CSSC (Hong Kong) Shipping Company Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.13
5Y Range-10.71 – -6.07
5Y Selected-8.39
(-) Safety Margin59.29%
5Y Buy Price$-3.60
Upside (to Buy Price)-268.84%
10Y Range-10.56 – -6.21
10Y Selected-8.38
(-) Safety Margin59.29%
10Y Buy Price$-3.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-268.71%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4995
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.8678
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9921
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8297
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8768
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8966
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2841
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1740
Safety Score0.4286

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.26%6.90%6.54%6.18%5.81%5.45%5.09%4.73%4.36%4.00%
Revenue3,105.243,319.503,536.523,754.913,973.174,189.714,402.864,610.904,812.055,004.53
EBITDA2,967.363,172.123,379.503,588.193,796.764,003.684,207.374,406.174,598.394,782.33
D&A-410.70-439.03-467.74-496.62-525.49-554.13-582.32-609.83-636.44-661.89
EBIT2,556.672,733.082,911.763,091.573,271.273,449.563,625.053,796.343,961.964,120.43
Pro forma Taxes-32.49-34.74-37.01-39.29-41.58-43.84-46.07-48.25-50.35-52.37
NOPAT2,524.172,698.352,874.763,052.283,229.693,405.713,578.983,748.093,911.604,068.07
Capital Expenditures-3,998.70-4,274.62-4,554.08-4,835.30-5,116.36-5,395.20-5,669.69-5,937.58-6,196.61-6,444.47
NWC Investment-705.96-719.44-728.67-733.26-732.84-727.07-715.70-698.52-675.40-646.29
(+) D&A410.70439.03467.74496.62525.49554.13582.32609.83636.44661.89
Free Cash Flow-1,769.79-1,856.67-1,940.26-2,019.66-2,094.01-2,162.43-2,224.09-2,278.18-2,323.97-2,360.80
Diluted Shares Outstanding6,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.006,168,655,267.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 7.10%Terminal Growth: 2.43%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.840.790.740.690.640.600.56
PV UFCF-1,757.69-1,800.21-1,756.49-1,705.94-1,651.43-1,592.28-1,529.06-1,462.37-1,392.83-1,321.06
Raw: -45,935.94
-35,005.13
Raw: -51,788.45
-28,002.43

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-43,676.89-43,971.80
(-) Net Debt3,486.043,486.04
Equity Value-47,162.93-47,457.84
(/) Shares Out6,168.666,168.66
Fair Value$-7.65$-7.69
(-) Safety Margin59.29%59.29%
Buy Price$-3.11$-3.13
Current Price$2.13$2.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-246.13%-247.04%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 8.10%Terminal Growth: 1.93%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF-1,756.06-1,792.70-1,732.97-1,667.38-1,599.17-1,527.63-1,453.41-1,377.16-1,299.54-1,221.18
Raw: -34,597.76
-25,412.31
Raw: -39,005.72
-19,405.63

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-33,960.59-34,832.83
(-) Net Debt3,486.043,486.04
Equity Value-37,446.64-38,318.87
(/) Shares Out6,168.666,168.66
Fair Value$-6.07$-6.21
(-) Safety Margin59.29%59.29%
Buy Price$-2.47$-2.53
Current Price$2.13$2.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-216.02%-218.73%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 6.10%Terminal Growth: 2.93%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.770.720.680.640.61
PV UFCF-1,759.34-1,807.83-1,780.54-1,745.76-1,705.91-1,660.31-1,609.42-1,553.73-1,493.79-1,430.18
Raw: -68,005.96
-53,784.72
Raw: -76,670.31
-45,091.29

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-62,584.10-61,638.10
(-) Net Debt3,486.043,486.04
Equity Value-66,070.15-65,124.15
(/) Shares Out6,168.666,168.66
Fair Value$-10.71$-10.56
(-) Safety Margin59.29%59.29%
Buy Price$-4.36$-4.30
Current Price$2.13$2.13
Upside (to Buy Price)-304.71%-301.78%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.13
WACC Used7.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH115.60%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue14,389.2031,023.2066,886.21144,207.06310,911.28670,326.531,445,227.933,115,919.886,717,941.5214,483,921.29
Constant Implied Growth115.60%115.60%115.60%115.60%115.60%115.60%115.60%115.60%115.60%115.60%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.443.106.6914.4231.0967.03144.52311.59671.791,448.39
Discount Factor0.950.840.790.740.690.640.600.560.520.49
Present Value of Implied FCF1.372.625.2710.6221.3843.0386.62174.36350.99706.55

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.3111.15%$1.27-3.14%
20182018-12-31$1.2412.34%$-14.75-1,289.14%
20172017-12-31$1.249.24%$-14.86-1,298.57%
20162016-12-31$1.2412.14%$-23.04-1,958.38%
20152015-12-31$1.2419.51%$-23.81-2,019.90%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-8.21
Median
$-7.78
10th Percentile
$-10.65
90th Percentile
$-6.29

Fair Value Distribution

$-26.47 - $-25.40
1
$-25.40 - $-24.32
0
$-24.32 - $-23.25
0
$-23.25 - $-22.18
0
$-22.18 - $-21.10
1
$-21.10 - $-20.03
1
$-20.03 - $-18.96
0
$-18.96 - $-17.88
1
$-17.88 - $-16.81
1
$-16.81 - $-15.74
1
$-15.74 - $-14.67
9
$-14.67 - $-13.59
7
$-13.59 - $-12.52
12
$-12.52 - $-11.45
23
$-11.45 - $-10.37
57
$-10.37 - $-9.30
99
$-9.30 - $-8.23
175
$-8.23 - $-7.16
282
$-7.16 - $-6.08
266
$-6.08 - $-5.01
64