Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $29.62 |
| 5Y Range | 20.96 – 43.46 |
| 5Y Selected | 32.21 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.85% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $6.98 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -76.43% |
| 10Y Range | 22.46 – 45.15 |
| 10Y Selected | 33.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.85% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $7.32 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.27% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0200 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.6632 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0063 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.4443 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0214 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.3826 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0149 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0925 |
| Safety Score | 0.2167 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.26% | 3.34% | 3.42% | 3.50% | 3.59% | 3.67% | 3.75% | 3.83% | 3.92% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 98,156.98 | 101,434.29 | 104,904.85 | 108,580.85 | 112,475.40 | 116,602.60 | 120,977.61 | 125,616.75 | 130,537.60 | 135,759.10 |
| EBITDA | 4,748.65 | 4,907.20 | 5,075.10 | 5,252.93 | 5,441.35 | 5,641.01 | 5,852.67 | 6,077.10 | 6,315.16 | 6,567.77 |
| D&A | -2,067.24 | -2,136.26 | -2,209.36 | -2,286.77 | -2,368.80 | -2,455.72 | -2,547.86 | -2,645.56 | -2,749.20 | -2,859.16 |
| EBIT | 2,681.41 | 2,770.93 | 2,865.74 | 2,966.16 | 3,072.55 | 3,185.30 | 3,304.81 | 3,431.54 | 3,565.96 | 3,708.60 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -520.08 | -537.44 | -555.83 | -575.31 | -595.94 | -617.81 | -640.99 | -665.57 | -691.64 | -719.31 |
| NOPAT | 2,161.33 | 2,233.49 | 2,309.91 | 2,390.85 | 2,476.61 | 2,567.49 | 2,663.82 | 2,765.97 | 2,874.32 | 2,989.30 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2,033.39 | -2,101.28 | -2,173.17 | -2,249.32 | -2,330.00 | -2,415.50 | -2,506.13 | -2,602.23 | -2,704.17 | -2,812.34 |
| NWC Investment | 495.60 | 524.72 | 555.67 | 588.56 | 623.55 | 660.80 | 700.47 | 742.77 | 787.87 | 836.01 |
| (+) D&A | 2,067.24 | 2,136.26 | 2,209.36 | 2,286.77 | 2,368.80 | 2,455.72 | 2,547.86 | 2,645.56 | 2,749.20 | 2,859.16 |
| Free Cash Flow | 2,690.78 | 2,793.20 | 2,901.76 | 3,016.86 | 3,138.95 | 3,268.50 | 3,406.02 | 3,552.06 | 3,707.22 | 3,872.13 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 | 2,749,283,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,672.94 | 2,709.02 | 2,633.17 | 2,561.42 | 2,493.55 | 2,429.34 | 2,368.62 | 2,311.19 | 2,256.89 | 2,205.57 | Raw: 81,484.46 62,612.53 |
Raw: 100,517.00 55,381.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 75,682.62 | 80,023.17 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1,174.73 | -1,174.73 |
| Equity Value | 76,857.36 | 81,197.90 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,749.28 | 2,749.28 |
| Fair Value | $27.96 | $29.53 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.85% | 80.85% |
| Buy Price | $5.35 | $5.66 |
| Current Price | $29.62 | $29.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.93% | -80.91% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,670.45 | 2,697.44 | 2,597.61 | 2,503.40 | 2,414.48 | 2,330.51 | 2,251.19 | 2,176.25 | 2,105.42 | 2,038.47 | Raw: 58,829.77 43,567.96 |
Raw: 72,570.79 36,783.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 56,451.35 | 60,568.27 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1,174.73 | -1,174.73 |
| Equity Value | 57,626.08 | 61,743.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,749.28 | 2,749.28 |
| Fair Value | $20.96 | $22.46 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.85% | 80.85% |
| Buy Price | $4.01 | $4.30 |
| Current Price | $29.62 | $29.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -86.45% | -85.48% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 2,675.46 | 2,720.76 | 2,669.56 | 2,621.34 | 2,575.98 | 2,533.36 | 2,493.37 | 2,455.89 | 2,420.85 | 2,388.14 | Raw: 131,716.57 105,049.45 |
Raw: 162,481.95 97,388.95 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 118,312.54 | 122,943.65 |
| (-) Net Debt | -1,174.73 | -1,174.73 |
| Equity Value | 119,487.28 | 124,118.38 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,749.28 | 2,749.28 |
| Fair Value | $43.46 | $45.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 80.85% | 80.85% |
| Buy Price | $8.32 | $8.65 |
| Current Price | $29.62 | $29.62 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -71.90% | -70.81% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 340,078.28 | 608,545.84 | 1,088,949.41 | 1,948,597.33 | 3,486,876.01 | 6,239,516.05 | 11,165,169.16 | 19,979,274.25 | 35,751,486.97 | 63,974,737.25 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% | 78.94% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 34.01 | 60.85 | 108.89 | 194.86 | 348.69 | 623.95 | 1,116.52 | 1,997.93 | 3,575.15 | 6,397.47 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 32.46 | 51.67 | 86.50 | 144.83 | 242.48 | 405.98 | 679.72 | 1,138.02 | 1,905.34 | 3,190.03 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $14.85 | -1.39% | $46.82 | 215.30% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $10.36 | 1.18% | $19.48 | 88.00% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7.32 | 2.87% | $29.54 | 303.51% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $4.95 | 14.90% | $51.52 | 940.77% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $2.57 | 23.05% | $5.63 | 119.14% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.46 | 22.31% | $73.10 | 2,012.78% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.39 | 19.69% | $0.89 | -73.69% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $4.76 | 12.06% | $-1.06 | -122.33% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $3.52 | 2.62% | $-21.17 | -701.34% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $6.73 | -3.52% | $-37.09 | -651.16% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $7.98 | -5.64% | $3.07 | -61.52% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $4.59 | -5.83% | $-20.14 | -538.86% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $11.35 | -1.84% | $2.87 | -74.71% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $10.88 | 1.73% | $4.60 | -57.74% |
| $15.63 - $32.64 | 641 |
| $32.64 - $49.65 | 296 |
| $49.65 - $66.67 | 43 |
| $66.67 - $83.68 | 11 |
| $83.68 - $100.69 | 6 |
| $100.69 - $117.70 | 0 |
| $117.70 - $134.72 | 0 |
| $134.72 - $151.73 | 0 |
| $151.73 - $168.74 | 0 |
| $168.74 - $185.75 | 1 |
| $185.75 - $202.77 | 0 |
| $202.77 - $219.78 | 0 |
| $219.78 - $236.79 | 0 |
| $236.79 - $253.80 | 0 |
| $253.80 - $270.82 | 1 |
| $270.82 - $287.83 | 0 |
| $287.83 - $304.84 | 0 |
| $304.84 - $321.85 | 0 |
| $321.85 - $338.87 | 0 |
| $338.87 - $355.88 | 0 |