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Dali Foods Group Company Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.73
5Y Range5.23 – 12.27
5Y Selected8.75
(-) Safety Margin79.86%
5Y Buy Price$2.08
Upside (to Buy Price)-44.23%
10Y Range5.40 – 12.18
10Y Selected8.79
(-) Safety Margin79.86%
10Y Buy Price$2.09
Upside (to Buy Price)-43.97%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0277
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7055
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4756
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.3824
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0202
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.5840
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5042
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0097
Safety Score0.2377

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032
% Growth0.57%0.95%1.33%1.71%2.09%2.47%2.86%3.24%3.62%4.00%
Revenue20,070.0320,260.0820,529.2620,880.3621,317.1521,844.4222,468.1123,195.3424,034.6424,996.02
EBITDA4,660.864,705.004,767.514,849.044,950.485,072.935,217.765,386.655,581.565,804.82
D&A-647.36-653.49-662.17-673.49-687.58-704.59-724.71-748.16-775.24-806.25
EBIT4,013.504,051.514,105.344,175.554,262.894,368.344,493.064,638.494,806.324,998.58
Pro forma Taxes-945.18-954.13-966.81-983.35-1,003.92-1,028.75-1,058.12-1,092.37-1,131.89-1,177.17
NOPAT3,068.323,097.373,138.533,192.203,258.983,339.593,434.943,546.123,674.433,821.41
Capital Expenditures-854.35-862.44-873.90-888.85-907.44-929.89-956.44-987.39-1,023.12-1,064.05
NWC Investment0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
(+) D&A647.36653.49662.17673.49687.58704.59724.71748.16775.24806.25
Free Cash Flow2,861.322,888.422,926.792,976.853,039.123,114.293,203.213,306.893,426.543,563.61
Diluted Shares Outstanding13,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.0013,694,117,500.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-23Dec-24Dec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32
Period Start12/31/191/1/241/1/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/32
Period End12/31/2312/31/2412/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/32
Mid-Point12/30/217/1/247/2/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/32
Time (t)0.100.100.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.31%Terminal Growth: 2.94%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.67
PV UFCF2,843.872,870.802,908.942,894.232,779.412,679.122,592.062,517.142,453.422,400.12
Raw: 92,872.68
82,377.10
Raw: 108,900.48
71,135.67

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value96,674.3698,074.79
(-) Net Debt-1,697.78-1,697.78
Equity Value98,372.1499,772.57
(/) Shares Out13,694.1213,694.12
Fair Value$7.18$7.29
(-) Safety Margin79.86%79.86%
Buy Price$1.45$1.47
Current Price$3.73$3.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-61.21%-60.66%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.31%Terminal Growth: 2.44%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.63
PV UFCF2,841.212,868.112,906.222,881.802,741.682,618.122,509.442,414.202,331.162,259.26
Raw: 63,946.73
55,688.73
Raw: 74,982.54
45,889.97

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value69,927.7472,261.15
(-) Net Debt-1,697.78-1,697.78
Equity Value71,625.5273,958.93
(/) Shares Out13,694.1213,694.12
Fair Value$5.23$5.40
(-) Safety Margin79.86%79.86%
Buy Price$1.05$1.09
Current Price$3.73$3.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-71.76%-70.84%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.31%Terminal Growth: 3.44%
Metric2023202420252026202720282029203020312032TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.72
PV UFCF2,846.562,873.512,911.692,906.842,818.032,742.142,678.232,625.512,583.352,551.22
Raw: 168,238.95
152,016.23
Raw: 197,273.33
137,623.77

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value166,372.86165,160.85
(-) Net Debt-1,697.78-1,697.78
Equity Value168,070.64166,858.64
(/) Shares Out13,694.1213,694.12
Fair Value$12.27$12.18
(-) Safety Margin79.86%79.86%
Buy Price$2.47$2.45
Current Price$3.73$3.73
Upside (to Buy Price)-33.73%-34.21%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.73
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH94.58%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue82,686.12160,890.72313,061.30609,154.921,185,294.122,306,346.224,487,690.278,732,151.2416,991,026.7133,061,153.04
Constant Implied Growth94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%94.58%
Implied Free Cash Flow8.2716.0931.3160.92118.53230.63448.77873.221,699.103,306.12
Discount Factor0.990.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF8.2213.8425.3346.3784.87155.33284.31520.38952.461,743.30

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20172017-12-31$5.80-0.47%$2.31-60.22%
20162016-12-31$3.672.42%$4.3217.79%
20152015-12-31$3.683.99%$5.9461.46%
20142014-12-31$3.993.79%$2.55-36.03%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$8.73
Median
$7.24
10th Percentile
$5.39
90th Percentile
$12.05

Fair Value Distribution

$3.46 - $12.66
913
$12.66 - $21.85
66
$21.85 - $31.04
13
$31.04 - $40.23
2
$40.23 - $49.42
2
$49.42 - $58.61
0
$58.61 - $67.80
1
$67.80 - $76.99
0
$76.99 - $86.18
0
$86.18 - $95.37
0
$95.37 - $104.57
0
$104.57 - $113.76
1
$113.76 - $122.95
1
$122.95 - $132.14
0
$132.14 - $141.33
0
$141.33 - $150.52
0
$150.52 - $159.71
0
$159.71 - $168.90
0
$168.90 - $178.09
0
$178.09 - $187.28
1