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Modern Dental Group Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$5.40
5Y Range8.29 – 15.43
5Y Selected11.86
(-) Safety Margin54.55%
5Y Buy Price$5.65
Upside (to Buy Price)4.55%
10Y Range9.32 – 16.93
10Y Selected13.13
(-) Safety Margin54.55%
10Y Buy Price$6.25
Upside (to Buy Price)15.69%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8210
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9177
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5964
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.7201
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6587
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7684
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0458
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5178
Safety Score0.4759

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth7.97%7.53%7.09%6.65%6.21%5.77%5.32%4.88%4.44%4.00%
Revenue3,632.293,905.924,182.914,461.074,738.035,011.255,278.105,535.845,781.726,012.99
EBITDA709.83763.30817.43871.79925.91979.311,031.451,081.821,129.871,175.07
D&A-175.23-188.43-201.80-215.22-228.58-241.76-254.63-267.07-278.93-290.09
EBIT534.59574.87615.63656.57697.33737.55776.82814.76850.94884.98
Pro forma Taxes-125.67-135.14-144.72-154.34-163.92-173.38-182.61-191.53-200.03-208.03
NOPAT408.93439.73470.92502.23533.41564.17594.21623.23650.91676.95
Capital Expenditures-193.06-207.61-222.33-237.11-251.83-266.36-280.54-294.24-307.31-319.60
NWC Investment-19.92-20.32-20.57-20.65-20.56-20.29-19.81-19.14-18.26-17.17
(+) D&A175.23188.43201.80215.22228.58241.76254.63267.07278.93290.09
Free Cash Flow371.18400.24429.82459.68489.59519.29548.49576.92604.28630.26
Diluted Shares Outstanding944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00944,325,549.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 7.11%Terminal Growth: 2.46%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.840.790.740.690.640.600.56
PV UFCF368.64388.06389.07388.21386.03382.26376.96370.17361.99352.49
Raw: 10,784.21
8,215.91
Raw: 13,882.77
7,502.16

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,135.9211,266.03
(-) Net Debt20.5520.55
Equity Value10,115.3711,245.48
(/) Shares Out944.33944.33
Fair Value$10.71$11.91
(-) Safety Margin54.55%54.55%
Buy Price$4.87$5.41
Current Price$5.40$5.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-9.84%0.23%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 8.11%Terminal Growth: 1.96%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.760.710.650.600.560.52
PV UFCF368.29386.44383.86379.44373.81366.74358.31348.60337.74325.84
Raw: 8,114.77
5,958.84
Raw: 10,446.34
5,194.13

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,850.698,823.21
(-) Net Debt20.5520.55
Equity Value7,830.148,802.67
(/) Shares Out944.33944.33
Fair Value$8.29$9.32
(-) Safety Margin54.55%54.55%
Buy Price$3.77$4.24
Current Price$5.40$5.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-30.21%-21.54%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 6.11%Terminal Growth: 2.96%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.770.720.680.640.61
PV UFCF368.98389.70394.40397.28398.76398.59396.76393.30388.22381.60
Raw: 15,994.76
12,646.69
Raw: 20,590.44
12,102.52

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,595.8116,010.11
(-) Net Debt20.5520.55
Equity Value14,575.2715,989.57
(/) Shares Out944.33944.33
Fair Value$15.43$16.93
(-) Safety Margin54.55%54.55%
Buy Price$7.02$7.70
Current Price$5.40$5.40
Upside (to Buy Price)29.91%42.51%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$5.40
WACC Used7.1%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH91.25%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue12,946.1724,759.2447,351.4590,558.49173,190.90331,223.36633,456.591,211,470.262,316,907.294,431,028.63
Constant Implied Growth91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.292.484.749.0617.3233.1263.35121.15231.69443.10
Discount Factor0.950.840.790.740.690.640.600.560.520.49
Present Value of Implied FCF1.232.093.736.6711.9021.2537.9567.75120.98216.01

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.549.70%$3.25110.98%
20182018-12-31$1.328.79%$0.96-27.13%
20172017-12-31$2.127.18%$-0.33-115.58%
20162016-12-31$2.856.68%$1.63-42.65%
20152015-12-31$4.117.49%$2.68-34.81%
20142014-12-31$4.0410.49%$4.6013.87%
20132013-12-31$4.0411.18%$4.162.97%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$12.92
Median
$12.00
10th Percentile
$9.39
90th Percentile
$17.06

Fair Value Distribution

$7.23 - $10.25
218
$10.25 - $13.27
442
$13.27 - $16.29
210
$16.29 - $19.31
79
$19.31 - $22.33
24
$22.33 - $25.35
10
$25.35 - $28.37
7
$28.37 - $31.39
2
$31.39 - $34.41
1
$34.41 - $37.44
2
$37.44 - $40.46
0
$40.46 - $43.48
2
$43.48 - $46.50
2
$46.50 - $49.52
0
$49.52 - $52.54
0
$52.54 - $55.56
0
$55.56 - $58.58
0
$58.58 - $61.60
0
$61.60 - $64.62
0
$64.62 - $67.64
0