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Far East Horizon Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$8.14
5Y Range18.91 – 43.63
5Y Selected31.27
(-) Safety Margin66.29%
5Y Buy Price$11.49
Upside (to Buy Price)41.11%
10Y Range17.35 – 37.79
10Y Selected27.57
(-) Safety Margin66.29%
10Y Buy Price$10.13
Upside (to Buy Price)24.40%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9855
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9638
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0800
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5410
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0497
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8307
FCF R2 (5Y)0.9443
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1636
Safety Score0.3673

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth2.05%2.26%2.48%2.70%2.91%3.13%3.35%3.57%3.78%4.00%
Revenue38,521.4139,393.1040,370.0641,458.9042,667.1444,003.2445,476.7247,098.2948,879.9650,835.15
EBITDA21,860.8322,355.5122,909.9323,527.8524,213.5224,971.7625,807.9626,728.2027,739.2928,848.86
D&A-2,509.88-2,566.68-2,630.33-2,701.28-2,780.00-2,867.05-2,963.06-3,068.71-3,184.80-3,312.19
EBIT19,350.9419,788.8320,279.6020,826.5721,433.5222,104.7022,844.9023,659.4824,554.4925,536.67
Pro forma Taxes-6,662.70-6,813.47-6,982.45-7,170.78-7,379.76-7,610.85-7,865.70-8,146.17-8,454.33-8,792.50
NOPAT12,688.2412,975.3613,297.1513,655.8014,053.7714,493.8514,979.1915,513.3116,100.1616,744.16
Capital Expenditures-6,639.86-6,790.11-6,958.51-7,146.19-7,354.45-7,584.75-7,838.74-8,118.24-8,425.35-8,762.36
NWC Investment-1,944.66-2,195.08-2,460.15-2,741.91-3,042.56-3,364.53-3,710.49-4,083.41-4,486.54-4,923.53
(+) D&A2,509.882,566.682,630.332,701.282,780.002,867.052,963.063,068.713,184.803,312.19
Free Cash Flow6,613.606,556.856,508.826,468.986,436.766,411.636,393.026,380.376,373.076,370.46
Diluted Shares Outstanding4,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.004,747,827,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.60%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.710.660.620.58
PV UFCF6,571.466,366.865,928.875,527.705,159.594,821.204,509.544,221.943,955.973,709.50
Raw: 160,149.70
124,335.06
Raw: 158,500.12
89,390.91

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value153,889.53140,163.53
(-) Net Debt26,777.0626,777.06
Equity Value127,112.47113,386.48
(/) Shares Out4,747.834,747.83
Fair Value$26.77$23.88
(-) Safety Margin66.29%66.29%
Buy Price$9.03$8.05
Current Price$8.14$8.14
Upside (to Buy Price)10.87%-1.10%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.60%Terminal Growth: 1.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF6,565.336,339.575,848.595,402.184,995.574,624.554,285.413,974.813,689.803,427.75
Raw: 116,824.49
87,406.44
Raw: 115,621.17
59,974.69

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value116,557.67109,128.25
(-) Net Debt26,777.0626,777.06
Equity Value89,780.6182,351.19
(/) Shares Out4,747.834,747.83
Fair Value$18.91$17.35
(-) Safety Margin66.29%66.29%
Buy Price$6.37$5.85
Current Price$8.14$8.14
Upside (to Buy Price)-21.69%-28.17%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.60%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.870.830.780.740.700.670.63
PV UFCF6,577.656,394.526,011.025,657.365,330.625,028.194,747.684,486.984,244.134,017.39
Raw: 253,103.50
203,974.05
Raw: 250,496.46
153,723.74

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value233,945.22206,219.28
(-) Net Debt26,777.0626,777.06
Equity Value207,168.16179,442.22
(/) Shares Out4,747.834,747.83
Fair Value$43.63$37.79
(-) Safety Margin66.29%66.29%
Buy Price$14.71$12.74
Current Price$8.14$8.14
Upside (to Buy Price)80.70%56.52%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$8.14
WACC Used6.6%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH91.25%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue140,988.71269,637.47515,675.08986,216.001,886,114.013,607,147.006,898,580.5813,193,366.9425,231,992.1648,255,569.00
Constant Implied Growth91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%91.25%
Implied Free Cash Flow14.1026.9651.5798.62188.61360.71689.861,319.342,523.204,825.56
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.710.660.620.580.550.51
Present Value of Implied FCF13.4823.0441.3474.16133.04238.69428.22768.251,378.272,472.69

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$6.521.64%$22.03237.91%
20182018-12-31$6.931.41%$-120.88-1,844.27%
20172017-12-31$5.852.32%$-225.71-3,958.35%
20162016-12-31$5.958.96%$-157.60-2,748.75%
20152015-12-31$6.0318.67%$-134.60-2,332.10%
20142014-12-31$6.1121.23%$-177.73-3,008.83%
20132013-12-31$5.1719.34%$-205.54-4,075.66%
20122012-12-31$5.0115.89%$-120.04-2,496.11%
20112011-12-31$5.6214.67%$-141.47-2,617.31%
20102010-12-31$0.0316.81%$-141.87-558,089.00%
20092009-12-31$0.0322.90%$-61.82-234,269.21%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$26.67
Median
$23.89
10th Percentile
$17.08
90th Percentile
$37.92

Fair Value Distribution

$11.42 - $18.07
159
$18.07 - $24.72
382
$24.72 - $31.37
241
$31.37 - $38.02
120
$38.02 - $44.67
45
$44.67 - $51.32
17
$51.32 - $57.97
11
$57.97 - $64.62
6
$64.62 - $71.27
9
$71.27 - $77.92
1
$77.92 - $84.57
4
$84.57 - $91.22
2
$91.22 - $97.87
1
$97.87 - $104.52
0
$104.52 - $111.17
0
$111.17 - $117.82
0
$117.82 - $124.47
0
$124.47 - $131.11
1
$131.11 - $137.76
0
$137.76 - $144.41
1