Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $4.61 |
| 5Y Range | 31.88 – 67.47 |
| 5Y Selected | 49.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $20.71 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 349.23% |
| 10Y Range | 36.64 – 75.67 |
| 10Y Selected | 56.15 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $23.41 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 407.83% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9086 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9767 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.7631 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1874 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.6999 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8087 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9147 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.7170 |
| Safety Score | 0.4169 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.49% | 6.22% | 5.94% | 5.66% | 5.38% | 5.11% | 4.83% | 4.55% | 4.28% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 291,984.46 | 310,133.56 | 328,551.78 | 347,153.83 | 365,847.58 | 384,534.66 | 403,111.20 | 421,468.66 | 439,494.76 | 457,074.55 |
| EBITDA | 17,947.16 | 19,062.72 | 20,194.82 | 21,338.21 | 22,487.25 | 23,635.87 | 24,777.70 | 25,906.06 | 27,014.05 | 28,094.62 |
| D&A | -2,731.33 | -2,901.11 | -3,073.40 | -3,247.41 | -3,422.28 | -3,597.08 | -3,770.86 | -3,942.58 | -4,111.20 | -4,275.65 |
| EBIT | 15,215.83 | 16,161.61 | 17,121.42 | 18,090.80 | 19,064.97 | 20,038.78 | 21,006.84 | 21,963.48 | 22,902.85 | 23,818.97 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3,317.45 | -3,523.65 | -3,732.92 | -3,944.27 | -4,156.66 | -4,368.98 | -4,580.04 | -4,788.61 | -4,993.42 | -5,193.16 |
| NOPAT | 11,898.38 | 12,637.96 | 13,388.50 | 14,146.53 | 14,908.31 | 15,669.80 | 16,426.80 | 17,174.87 | 17,909.43 | 18,625.81 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3,227.36 | -3,427.96 | -3,631.54 | -3,837.16 | -4,043.78 | -4,250.33 | -4,455.66 | -4,658.57 | -4,857.82 | -5,052.13 |
| NWC Investment | -2,439.25 | -2,486.81 | -2,523.69 | -2,548.87 | -2,561.44 | -2,560.53 | -2,545.38 | -2,515.36 | -2,469.96 | -2,408.80 |
| (+) D&A | 2,731.33 | 2,901.11 | 3,073.40 | 3,247.41 | 3,422.28 | 3,597.08 | 3,770.86 | 3,942.58 | 4,111.20 | 4,275.65 |
| Free Cash Flow | 8,963.11 | 9,624.29 | 10,306.67 | 11,007.92 | 11,725.36 | 12,456.03 | 13,196.61 | 13,943.52 | 14,692.86 | 15,440.53 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 | 6,282,510,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,906.60 | 9,348.34 | 9,397.62 | 9,421.90 | 9,420.93 | 9,394.66 | 9,343.25 | 9,267.05 | 9,166.63 | 9,042.72 | Raw: 297,438.06 231,542.59 |
Raw: 391,680.80 222,247.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 278,037.99 | 314,956.89 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,463.68 | 7,463.68 |
| Equity Value | 270,574.30 | 307,493.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6,282.51 | 6,282.51 |
| Fair Value | $43.07 | $48.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.47% | 61.47% |
| Buy Price | $16.59 | $18.86 |
| Current Price | $4.61 | $4.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 259.96% | 309.07% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,898.29 | 9,308.24 | 9,270.30 | 9,207.81 | 9,121.24 | 9,011.21 | 8,878.56 | 8,724.25 | 8,549.46 | 8,355.46 | Raw: 215,849.19 161,925.78 |
Raw: 284,240.64 148,331.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 207,731.65 | 237,656.02 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,463.68 | 7,463.68 |
| Equity Value | 200,267.97 | 230,192.34 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6,282.51 | 6,282.51 |
| Fair Value | $31.88 | $36.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.47% | 61.47% |
| Buy Price | $12.28 | $14.12 |
| Current Price | $4.61 | $4.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 166.43% | 206.24% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,915.01 | 9,388.98 | 9,527.92 | 9,643.06 | 9,733.43 | 9,798.27 | 9,836.99 | 9,849.22 | 9,834.81 | 9,793.81 | Raw: 475,383.63 384,148.30 |
Raw: 626,008.13 386,531.18 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 431,356.71 | 482,852.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,463.68 | 7,463.68 |
| Equity Value | 423,893.02 | 475,389.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6,282.51 | 6,282.51 |
| Fair Value | $67.47 | $75.67 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 61.47% | 61.47% |
| Buy Price | $26.00 | $29.16 |
| Current Price | $4.61 | $4.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 463.92% | 532.43% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 812,860.14 | 1,189,919.28 | 1,741,883.79 | 2,549,886.53 | 3,732,695.23 | 5,464,170.06 | 7,998,819.26 | 11,709,209.05 | 17,140,726.92 | 25,091,747.71 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% | 46.39% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 81.29 | 118.99 | 174.19 | 254.99 | 373.27 | 546.42 | 799.88 | 1,170.92 | 1,714.07 | 2,509.17 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 77.77 | 101.85 | 139.95 | 192.32 | 264.28 | 363.16 | 499.03 | 685.75 | 942.32 | 1,294.90 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $7.23 | 7.60% | $4.74 | -34.47% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $10.22 | 7.97% | $15.33 | 49.96% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $10.12 | 7.33% | $5.31 | -47.48% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $8.75 | 6.89% | $4.65 | -46.85% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $9.01 | 1.70% | $6.98 | -22.58% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $9.01 | -0.01% | $-1.92 | -121.29% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $9.01 | 4.91% | $0.74 | -91.75% |
| $27.75 - $37.24 | 122 |
| $37.24 - $46.72 | 297 |
| $46.72 - $56.21 | 243 |
| $56.21 - $65.69 | 140 |
| $65.69 - $75.18 | 81 |
| $75.18 - $84.67 | 42 |
| $84.67 - $94.15 | 31 |
| $94.15 - $103.64 | 13 |
| $103.64 - $113.12 | 8 |
| $113.12 - $122.61 | 6 |
| $122.61 - $132.09 | 5 |
| $132.09 - $141.58 | 3 |
| $141.58 - $151.07 | 2 |
| $151.07 - $160.55 | 2 |
| $160.55 - $170.04 | 2 |
| $170.04 - $179.52 | 0 |
| $179.52 - $189.01 | 1 |
| $189.01 - $198.49 | 0 |
| $198.49 - $207.98 | 0 |
| $207.98 - $217.46 | 1 |