Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $25.22 |
| 5Y Range | 163.64 – 413.24 |
| 5Y Selected | 288.44 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.47% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $187.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 642.26% |
| 10Y Range | 186.35 – 453.94 |
| 10Y Selected | 320.14 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.47% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $207.77 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 723.84% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9849 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8779 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9879 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9442 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9795 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9308 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2231 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6050 |
| Safety Score | 0.6490 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 34.79% | 31.37% | 27.95% | 24.53% | 21.11% | 17.68% | 14.26% | 10.84% | 7.42% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,845.33 | 6,365.29 | 8,144.27 | 10,141.82 | 12,282.33 | 14,454.43 | 16,516.14 | 18,306.87 | 19,665.46 | 20,452.08 |
| EBITDA | 960.85 | 1,262.27 | 1,615.05 | 2,011.17 | 2,435.65 | 2,866.38 | 3,275.23 | 3,630.34 | 3,899.76 | 4,055.75 |
| D&A | -25.06 | -32.92 | -42.12 | -52.45 | -63.52 | -74.75 | -85.41 | -94.67 | -101.70 | -105.77 |
| EBIT | 935.80 | 1,229.35 | 1,572.93 | 1,958.73 | 2,372.13 | 2,791.64 | 3,189.82 | 3,535.67 | 3,798.06 | 3,949.98 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -237.16 | -311.56 | -398.63 | -496.40 | -601.17 | -707.49 | -808.40 | -896.05 | -962.55 | -1,001.05 |
| NOPAT | 698.64 | 917.79 | 1,174.30 | 1,462.32 | 1,770.96 | 2,084.14 | 2,381.42 | 2,639.62 | 2,835.51 | 2,948.93 |
| Capital Expenditures | -43.32 | -56.91 | -72.82 | -90.68 | -109.82 | -129.24 | -147.67 | -163.68 | -175.83 | -182.86 |
| NWC Investment | 380.72 | 462.71 | 541.56 | 608.10 | 651.62 | 661.23 | 627.63 | 545.14 | 413.58 | 239.46 |
| (+) D&A | 25.06 | 32.92 | 42.12 | 52.45 | 63.52 | 74.75 | 85.41 | 94.67 | 101.70 | 105.77 |
| Free Cash Flow | 1,061.09 | 1,356.50 | 1,685.16 | 2,032.19 | 2,376.27 | 2,690.89 | 2,946.78 | 3,115.75 | 3,174.96 | 3,111.29 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 | 276,407,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,054.50 | 1,319.02 | 1,539.66 | 1,743.54 | 1,915.67 | 2,038.33 | 2,097.40 | 2,083.77 | 1,995.17 | 1,837.12 | Raw: 72,517.86 56,669.01 |
Raw: 94,948.80 54,345.51 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 64,241.39 | 71,969.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | -157.90 | -157.90 |
| Equity Value | 64,399.29 | 72,127.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 276.41 | 276.41 |
| Fair Value | $232.99 | $260.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.47% | 38.47% |
| Buy Price | $143.36 | $160.56 |
| Current Price | $25.22 | $25.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 468.43% | 536.64% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,053.51 | 1,313.48 | 1,518.92 | 1,703.88 | 1,854.67 | 1,955.05 | 1,992.99 | 1,961.60 | 1,860.72 | 1,697.37 | Raw: 49,968.87 37,628.41 |
Raw: 65,425.05 34,437.02 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 45,072.88 | 51,349.21 |
| (-) Net Debt | -157.90 | -157.90 |
| Equity Value | 45,230.78 | 51,507.11 |
| (/) Shares Out | 276.41 | 276.41 |
| Fair Value | $163.64 | $186.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.47% | 38.47% |
| Buy Price | $100.69 | $114.66 |
| Current Price | $25.22 | $25.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 299.23% | 354.63% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 1,055.49 | 1,324.63 | 1,560.88 | 1,784.51 | 1,979.27 | 2,125.98 | 2,208.35 | 2,214.81 | 2,140.75 | 1,989.87 | Raw: 131,112.27 106,360.44 |
Raw: 171,667.42 106,929.70 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 114,065.23 | 125,314.24 |
| (-) Net Debt | -157.90 | -157.90 |
| Equity Value | 114,223.13 | 125,472.14 |
| (/) Shares Out | 276.41 | 276.41 |
| Fair Value | $413.24 | $453.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 38.47% | 38.47% |
| Buy Price | $254.27 | $279.31 |
| Current Price | $25.22 | $25.22 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 908.20% | 1,007.49% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 13,844.19 | 26,476.68 | 50,636.00 | 96,840.11 | 185,204.35 | 354,198.79 | 677,396.54 | 1,295,504.35 | 2,477,620.44 | 4,738,388.61 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% | 91.25% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.38 | 2.65 | 5.06 | 9.68 | 18.52 | 35.42 | 67.74 | 129.55 | 247.76 | 473.84 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.33 | 2.27 | 4.08 | 7.34 | 13.18 | 23.69 | 42.57 | 76.50 | 137.46 | 247.02 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $6.43 | 33.37% | $35.33 | 449.51% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $6.42 | 33.80% | $33.32 | 418.95% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $6.09 | 32.76% | $30.00 | 392.63% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.55 | 33.02% | $20.88 | 218.80% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6.13 | 35.44% | $0.42 | -93.09% |
| $123.23 - $1,208.79 | 992 |
| $1,208.79 - $2,294.35 | 6 |
| $2,294.35 - $3,379.92 | 0 |
| $3,379.92 - $4,465.48 | 1 |
| $4,465.48 - $5,551.04 | 0 |
| $5,551.04 - $6,636.61 | 0 |
| $6,636.61 - $7,722.17 | 0 |
| $7,722.17 - $8,807.73 | 0 |
| $8,807.73 - $9,893.30 | 0 |
| $9,893.30 - $10,978.86 | 0 |
| $10,978.86 - $12,064.42 | 0 |
| $12,064.42 - $13,149.99 | 0 |
| $13,149.99 - $14,235.55 | 0 |
| $14,235.55 - $15,321.11 | 0 |
| $15,321.11 - $16,406.68 | 0 |
| $16,406.68 - $17,492.24 | 0 |
| $17,492.24 - $18,577.80 | 0 |
| $18,577.80 - $19,663.37 | 0 |
| $19,663.37 - $20,748.93 | 0 |
| $20,748.93 - $21,834.49 | 1 |