Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $9.72 |
| 5Y Range | 59.10 – 128.02 |
| 5Y Selected | 93.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.64% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $40.93 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 321.10% |
| 10Y Range | 74.31 – 158.69 |
| 10Y Selected | 116.50 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.64% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $50.97 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 424.38% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9248 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9248 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.9743 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9043 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9669 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9261 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.9657 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0006 |
| Safety Score | 0.4375 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 14.46% | 13.30% | 12.13% | 10.97% | 9.81% | 8.65% | 7.49% | 6.32% | 5.16% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 131,748.71 | 149,265.84 | 167,377.59 | 185,742.09 | 203,963.24 | 221,601.85 | 238,190.85 | 253,253.96 | 266,326.89 | 276,979.97 |
| EBITDA | 17,544.60 | 19,877.30 | 22,289.19 | 24,734.74 | 27,161.20 | 29,510.08 | 31,719.19 | 33,725.10 | 35,465.99 | 36,884.63 |
| D&A | -957.59 | -1,084.91 | -1,216.55 | -1,350.03 | -1,482.47 | -1,610.67 | -1,731.24 | -1,840.73 | -1,935.74 | -2,013.17 |
| EBIT | 16,587.01 | 18,792.39 | 21,072.64 | 23,384.71 | 25,678.73 | 27,899.41 | 29,987.95 | 31,884.38 | 33,530.24 | 34,871.45 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3,456.60 | -3,916.18 | -4,391.37 | -4,873.19 | -5,351.24 | -5,814.01 | -6,249.25 | -6,644.45 | -6,987.43 | -7,266.93 |
| NOPAT | 13,130.41 | 14,876.21 | 16,681.27 | 18,511.53 | 20,327.49 | 22,085.40 | 23,738.70 | 25,239.93 | 26,542.81 | 27,604.52 |
| Capital Expenditures | -1,210.62 | -1,371.58 | -1,538.01 | -1,706.76 | -1,874.19 | -2,036.27 | -2,188.70 | -2,327.12 | -2,447.24 | -2,545.13 |
| NWC Investment | -2,272.20 | -2,391.69 | -2,472.88 | -2,507.39 | -2,487.82 | -2,408.28 | -2,264.97 | -2,056.63 | -1,784.91 | -1,454.51 |
| (+) D&A | 957.59 | 1,084.91 | 1,216.55 | 1,350.03 | 1,482.47 | 1,610.67 | 1,731.24 | 1,840.73 | 1,935.74 | 2,013.17 |
| Free Cash Flow | 10,605.18 | 12,197.84 | 13,886.94 | 15,647.41 | 17,447.95 | 19,251.52 | 21,016.27 | 22,696.91 | 24,246.41 | 25,618.06 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 | 5,074,441,917.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10,539.40 | 11,853.69 | 12,681.09 | 13,426.79 | 14,068.70 | 14,586.60 | 14,963.19 | 15,185.00 | 15,243.16 | 15,133.99 | Raw: 451,807.16 353,144.31 |
Raw: 663,368.39 379,884.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 415,713.98 | 517,566.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,262.36 | 7,262.36 |
| Equity Value | 408,451.61 | 510,303.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5,074.44 | 5,074.44 |
| Fair Value | $80.49 | $100.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.64% | 59.64% |
| Buy Price | $32.49 | $40.59 |
| Current Price | $9.72 | $9.72 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 234.22% | 317.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10,529.55 | 11,802.80 | 12,509.11 | 13,121.39 | 13,620.70 | 13,990.65 | 14,218.25 | 14,294.69 | 14,215.86 | 13,982.65 | Raw: 326,015.27 245,556.73 |
Raw: 478,673.75 252,081.96 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 307,140.28 | 384,367.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,262.36 | 7,262.36 |
| Equity Value | 299,877.92 | 377,105.24 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5,074.44 | 5,074.44 |
| Fair Value | $59.10 | $74.31 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.64% | 59.64% |
| Buy Price | $23.85 | $29.99 |
| Current Price | $9.72 | $9.72 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 145.38% | 208.57% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 10,549.35 | 11,905.29 | 12,857.10 | 13,742.28 | 14,535.86 | 15,213.92 | 15,754.75 | 16,139.96 | 16,355.47 | 16,392.37 | Raw: 731,196.86 593,294.72 |
Raw: 1,073,583.88 669,069.68 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 656,884.61 | 812,516.03 |
| (-) Net Debt | 7,262.36 | 7,262.36 |
| Equity Value | 649,622.25 | 805,253.67 |
| (/) Shares Out | 5,074.44 | 5,074.44 |
| Fair Value | $128.02 | $158.69 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 59.64% | 59.64% |
| Buy Price | $51.67 | $64.05 |
| Current Price | $9.72 | $9.72 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 431.57% | 558.91% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 384,480.71 | 641,677.29 | 1,070,924.30 | 1,787,314.09 | 2,982,929.47 | 4,978,346.16 | 8,308,587.48 | 13,866,578.13 | 23,142,560.58 | 38,623,668.00 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% | 66.89% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 38.45 | 64.17 | 107.09 | 178.73 | 298.29 | 497.83 | 830.86 | 1,386.66 | 2,314.26 | 3,862.37 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 36.81 | 55.06 | 86.35 | 135.42 | 212.38 | 333.07 | 522.34 | 819.17 | 1,284.69 | 2,014.74 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $7.08 | 16.14% | $-24.81 | -450.46% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $6.22 | 17.21% | $-22.08 | -454.91% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $11.42 | 14.45% | $-40.92 | -458.29% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $11.59 | 8.07% | $11.12 | -4.02% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $13.45 | 3.91% | $-2.99 | -122.20% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $10.95 | 5.37% | $-12.64 | -215.44% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $13.89 | 5.82% | $-18.42 | -232.60% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $9.30 | 10.74% | $-24.87 | -367.38% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $5.51 | 17.13% | $-14.04 | -354.80% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $7.06 | 18.59% | $-3.95 | -155.98% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $3.17 | 20.22% | $13.42 | 323.25% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $1.23 | 14.22% | $1.21 | -1.92% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $2.81 | 6.87% | $-3.68 | -230.92% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $1.10 | 3.44% | $1.29 | 17.17% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $0.41 | -1.79% | $1.26 | 205.98% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $0.44 | 0.43% | $5.87 | 1,244.07% |
| $52.40 - $72.48 | 91 |
| $72.48 - $92.55 | 314 |
| $92.55 - $112.63 | 264 |
| $112.63 - $132.71 | 140 |
| $132.71 - $152.79 | 92 |
| $152.79 - $172.86 | 42 |
| $172.86 - $192.94 | 20 |
| $192.94 - $213.02 | 9 |
| $213.02 - $233.09 | 5 |
| $233.09 - $253.17 | 3 |
| $253.17 - $273.25 | 6 |
| $273.25 - $293.33 | 3 |
| $293.33 - $313.40 | 0 |
| $313.40 - $333.48 | 2 |
| $333.48 - $353.56 | 1 |
| $353.56 - $373.63 | 1 |
| $373.63 - $393.71 | 2 |
| $393.71 - $413.79 | 1 |
| $413.79 - $433.87 | 1 |
| $433.87 - $453.94 | 3 |