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Jing-Jan Retail Business Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$30.80
5Y Range130.18 – 296.79
5Y Selected213.48
(-) Safety Margin82.00%
5Y Buy Price$46.84
Upside (to Buy Price)52.07%
10Y Range138.71 – 305.91
10Y Selected222.31
(-) Safety Margin82.00%
10Y Buy Price$48.78
Upside (to Buy Price)58.36%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.1049
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.0725
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0892
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1577
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0558
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7136
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5046
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5046
Safety Score0.2194

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-0.06%0.39%0.84%1.29%1.74%2.19%2.65%3.10%3.55%4.00%
Revenue1,338.671,343.881,355.181,372.691,396.621,427.281,465.041,510.421,564.021,626.58
EBITDA834.93838.18845.23856.15871.08890.20913.75942.06975.491,014.51
D&A-460.22-462.02-465.90-471.92-480.15-490.69-503.67-519.27-537.70-559.21
EBIT374.71376.17379.33384.23390.93399.51410.08422.78437.79455.30
Pro forma Taxes-72.57-72.85-73.46-74.41-75.71-77.37-79.42-81.88-84.78-88.17
NOPAT302.14303.32305.87309.82315.22322.14330.66340.91353.00367.12
Capital Expenditures-381.14-382.63-385.85-390.83-397.65-406.37-417.13-430.05-445.31-463.12
NWC Investment-0.352.234.837.4810.2313.1016.1419.3922.9026.73
(+) D&A460.22462.02465.90471.92480.15490.69503.67519.27537.70559.21
Free Cash Flow380.87384.93390.75398.39407.95419.55433.35449.52468.30489.94
Diluted Shares Outstanding60,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.0060,280,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.18%Terminal Growth: 2.55%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.860.810.770.720.680.640.60
PV UFCF378.59374.69358.23343.79331.56321.16312.42305.23299.49295.11
Raw: 11,523.72
9,089.41
Raw: 13,839.79
8,090.04

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,876.2811,410.32
(-) Net Debt81.8081.80
Equity Value10,794.4811,328.52
(/) Shares Out60.2860.28
Fair Value$179.07$187.93
(-) Safety Margin82.00%82.00%
Buy Price$32.23$33.83
Current Price$30.80$30.80
Upside (to Buy Price)4.65%9.83%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.18%Terminal Growth: 2.05%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.790.730.680.640.600.56
PV UFCF378.24373.12353.40335.95320.98308.01296.83287.30279.26272.61
Raw: 8,114.59
6,167.20
Raw: 9,745.48
5,237.77

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,928.878,443.46
(-) Net Debt81.8081.80
Equity Value7,847.078,361.66
(/) Shares Out60.2860.28
Fair Value$130.18$138.71
(-) Safety Margin82.00%82.00%
Buy Price$23.43$24.97
Current Price$30.80$30.80
Upside (to Buy Price)-23.92%-18.93%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.18%Terminal Growth: 3.05%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.800.760.720.690.65
PV UFCF378.95376.29363.18351.89342.60335.00328.99324.48321.40319.70
Raw: 19,733.97
16,159.66
Raw: 23,700.16
15,079.81

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,972.5718,522.28
(-) Net Debt81.8081.80
Equity Value17,890.7718,440.48
(/) Shares Out60.2860.28
Fair Value$296.79$305.91
(-) Safety Margin82.00%82.00%
Buy Price$53.42$55.06
Current Price$30.80$30.80
Upside (to Buy Price)73.45%78.78%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$30.80
WACC Used6.2%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH84.45%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue4,991.619,207.2516,983.1731,326.1957,782.52106,582.37196,595.81362,629.52668,885.911,233,789.14
Constant Implied Growth84.45%84.45%84.45%84.45%84.45%84.45%84.45%84.45%84.45%84.45%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.500.921.703.135.7810.6619.6636.2666.89123.38
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.770.720.680.640.600.570.53
Present Value of Implied FCF0.480.791.382.404.177.2412.5721.8437.9565.92

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$50.901.97%$0.00-100.00%
20182018-12-31$48.00-1.02%$0.00-100.00%
20172017-12-31$45.31-5.08%$0.00-100.00%
20162016-12-31$45.31-4.63%$0.00-100.00%
20152015-12-31$45.310.38%$0.00-100.00%
20142014-12-31$45.311.18%$0.00-100.00%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$217.15
Median
$190.85
10th Percentile
$139.05
90th Percentile
$313.03

Fair Value Distribution

$58.31 - $274.82
846
$274.82 - $491.33
142
$491.33 - $707.85
10
$707.85 - $924.36
0
$924.36 - $1,140.87
0
$1,140.87 - $1,357.38
0
$1,357.38 - $1,573.90
0
$1,573.90 - $1,790.41
0
$1,790.41 - $2,006.92
0
$2,006.92 - $2,223.43
0
$2,223.43 - $2,439.95
0
$2,439.95 - $2,656.46
1
$2,656.46 - $2,872.97
0
$2,872.97 - $3,089.48
0
$3,089.48 - $3,306.00
0
$3,306.00 - $3,522.51
0
$3,522.51 - $3,739.02
0
$3,739.02 - $3,955.53
0
$3,955.53 - $4,172.04
0
$4,172.04 - $4,388.56
1