Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis
Financial Statements
Company Industry Sector
Periods / Units
Fundamentals
Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios
Valuations
Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations
Miscellaneous
Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability
Analysis Mode
Full Access
See Pricing Start Trial

Binhai Investment Company Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.09
5Y Range-18.11 – -8.51
5Y Selected-13.31
(-) Safety Margin79.62%
5Y Buy Price$-3.19
Upside (to Buy Price)-392.90%
10Y Range-20.65 – -9.87
10Y Selected-15.26
(-) Safety Margin79.62%
10Y Buy Price$-3.66
Upside (to Buy Price)-435.88%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8052
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9152
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.8131
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1746
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4067
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6124
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4922
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0013
Safety Score0.2399

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.79%9.14%8.50%7.86%7.21%6.57%5.93%5.29%4.64%4.00%
Revenue6,804.277,426.358,057.578,690.649,317.599,929.8710,518.5611,074.5311,588.7012,052.25
EBITDA508.14554.60601.74649.01695.83741.56785.52827.04865.44900.06
D&A-251.78-274.79-298.15-321.58-344.78-367.43-389.21-409.79-428.81-445.96
EBIT256.36279.80303.58327.44351.06374.13396.31417.25436.63454.09
Pro forma Taxes-64.07-69.93-75.87-81.83-87.73-93.50-99.04-104.28-109.12-113.48
NOPAT192.29209.88227.71245.60263.32280.63297.26312.98327.51340.61
Capital Expenditures-935.70-1,021.25-1,108.05-1,195.11-1,281.32-1,365.52-1,446.47-1,522.93-1,593.64-1,657.38
NWC Investment53.7155.0955.9056.0655.5254.2252.1349.2445.5341.05
(+) D&A251.78274.79298.15321.58344.78367.43389.21409.79428.81445.96
Free Cash Flow-437.92-481.49-526.28-571.86-617.70-663.24-707.86-750.93-791.78-829.76
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.001,367,334,500.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.32%Terminal Growth: 2.46%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF-435.25-468.39-481.55-491.85-499.70-504.66-506.60-505.48-501.31-494.13
Raw: -16,391.93
-12,860.51
Raw: -22,019.28
-12,717.05

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-15,237.25-17,605.96
(-) Net Debt408.61408.61
Equity Value-15,645.86-18,014.57
(/) Shares Out1,367.331,367.33
Fair Value$-11.44$-13.17
(-) Safety Margin79.62%79.62%
Buy Price$-2.33$-2.69
Current Price$1.09$1.09
Upside (to Buy Price)-313.95%-346.34%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.32%Terminal Growth: 1.96%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF-434.84-466.42-475.05-480.65-483.78-484.02-481.36-475.82-467.49-456.50
Raw: -11,747.83
-8,881.48
Raw: -15,780.86
-8,380.79

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-11,222.23-13,086.72
(-) Net Debt408.61408.61
Equity Value-11,630.84-13,495.33
(/) Shares Out1,367.331,367.33
Fair Value$-8.51$-9.87
(-) Safety Margin79.62%79.62%
Buy Price$-1.73$-2.01
Current Price$1.09$1.09
Upside (to Buy Price)-259.04%-284.54%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.32%Terminal Growth: 2.96%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.65
PV UFCF-435.66-470.39-488.19-503.42-516.31-526.38-533.43-537.30-537.92-535.26
Raw: -26,937.18
-21,939.81
Raw: -36,184.72
-22,744.79

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-24,353.78-27,829.04
(-) Net Debt408.61408.61
Equity Value-24,762.39-28,237.65
(/) Shares Out1,367.331,367.33
Fair Value$-18.11$-20.65
(-) Safety Margin79.62%79.62%
Buy Price$-3.69$-4.21
Current Price$1.09$1.09
Upside (to Buy Price)-438.61%-486.13%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.09
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH58.44%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue19,671.7731,166.9849,379.4278,234.31123,950.57196,381.16311,136.61492,949.47781,004.781,237,385.38
Constant Implied Growth58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%58.44%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.973.124.947.8212.4019.6431.1149.2978.10123.74
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF1.882.683.995.958.8713.2219.7029.3643.7565.19

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.4611.09%$-0.09-106.47%
20182018-12-31$1.2513.06%$0.62-50.56%
20172017-12-31$1.7911.11%$-0.17-109.65%
20162016-12-31$2.009.13%$1.16-42.00%
20152015-12-31$2.4512.45%$-0.53-121.47%
20142014-12-31$4.2010.95%$-3.99-195.04%
20132013-12-31$4.755.96%$-3.50-173.64%
20122012-03-31$4.202.31%$-5.38-228.19%
20112011-03-31$5.006.05%$-4.00-180.04%
20102010-03-31$8.2018.55%$0.76-90.74%
20092009-03-31$6.4026.74%$-1.80-128.07%
20082008-03-31$6.40-1.71%$-4.22-165.86%
20072007-03-31$6.40-22.51%$-4.14-164.69%
20062006-03-31$6.40-24.93%$-5.20-181.31%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-14.28
Median
$-13.00
10th Percentile
$-19.94
90th Percentile
$-9.86

Fair Value Distribution

$-66.37 - $-63.40
1
$-63.40 - $-60.42
0
$-60.42 - $-57.44
1
$-57.44 - $-54.47
0
$-54.47 - $-51.49
1
$-51.49 - $-48.52
0
$-48.52 - $-45.54
0
$-45.54 - $-42.56
2
$-42.56 - $-39.59
1
$-39.59 - $-36.61
0
$-36.61 - $-33.64
5
$-33.64 - $-30.66
8
$-30.66 - $-27.69
8
$-27.69 - $-24.71
15
$-24.71 - $-21.73
22
$-21.73 - $-18.76
60
$-18.76 - $-15.78
133
$-15.78 - $-12.81
269
$-12.81 - $-9.83
378
$-9.83 - $-6.85
95