Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $73.45 |
| 5Y Range | 8.56 – 24.54 |
| 5Y Selected | 16.55 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.60% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $8.28 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -88.73% |
| 10Y Range | 5.64 – 14.48 |
| 10Y Selected | 10.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.60% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $5.03 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -93.15% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7605 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9615 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0972 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7263 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0729 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.8611 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.6487 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4046 |
| Safety Score | 0.5001 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.38% | 9.67% | 8.96% | 8.25% | 7.54% | 6.83% | 6.13% | 5.42% | 4.71% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 121,253.68 | 132,978.24 | 144,894.11 | 156,850.90 | 168,682.79 | 180,211.79 | 191,251.64 | 201,612.44 | 211,105.72 | 219,549.95 |
| EBITDA | 10,804.34 | 11,849.06 | 12,910.82 | 13,976.23 | 15,030.52 | 16,057.81 | 17,041.52 | 17,964.72 | 18,810.62 | 19,563.05 |
| D&A | -3,107.93 | -3,408.45 | -3,713.87 | -4,020.34 | -4,323.61 | -4,619.12 | -4,902.09 | -5,167.65 | -5,410.98 | -5,627.42 |
| EBIT | 7,696.41 | 8,440.61 | 9,196.95 | 9,955.89 | 10,706.90 | 11,438.69 | 12,139.43 | 12,797.07 | 13,399.64 | 13,935.63 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,917.40 | -2,102.80 | -2,291.23 | -2,480.30 | -2,667.40 | -2,849.71 | -3,024.29 | -3,188.12 | -3,338.24 | -3,471.77 |
| NOPAT | 5,779.01 | 6,337.81 | 6,905.72 | 7,475.59 | 8,039.50 | 8,588.98 | 9,115.14 | 9,608.94 | 10,061.40 | 10,463.85 |
| Capital Expenditures | -8,915.42 | -9,777.50 | -10,653.64 | -11,532.78 | -12,402.75 | -13,250.44 | -14,062.17 | -14,823.97 | -15,521.98 | -16,142.86 |
| NWC Investment | 563.29 | 579.29 | 588.74 | 590.76 | 584.59 | 569.63 | 545.46 | 511.91 | 469.05 | 417.22 |
| (+) D&A | 3,107.93 | 3,408.45 | 3,713.87 | 4,020.34 | 4,323.61 | 4,619.12 | 4,902.09 | 5,167.65 | 5,410.98 | 5,627.42 |
| Free Cash Flow | 534.80 | 548.05 | 554.70 | 553.91 | 544.96 | 527.29 | 500.53 | 464.54 | 419.45 | 365.63 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 | 1,119,205,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 531.53 | 532.82 | 507.23 | 476.41 | 440.86 | 401.21 | 358.21 | 312.70 | 265.57 | 217.74 | Raw: 17,462.08 13,700.12 |
Raw: 11,715.84 6,766.38 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 16,188.97 | 10,810.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,828.95 | 1,828.95 |
| Equity Value | 14,360.03 | 8,981.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,119.21 | 1,119.21 |
| Fair Value | $12.83 | $8.03 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.60% | 53.60% |
| Buy Price | $5.95 | $3.72 |
| Current Price | $73.45 | $73.45 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -91.89% | -94.93% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 531.04 | 530.53 | 500.35 | 465.57 | 426.81 | 384.80 | 340.36 | 294.35 | 247.65 | 201.16 | Raw: 11,852.12 8,960.33 |
Raw: 7,951.94 4,223.06 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 11,414.61 | 8,145.67 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,828.95 | 1,828.95 |
| Equity Value | 9,585.66 | 6,316.73 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,119.21 | 1,119.21 |
| Fair Value | $8.56 | $5.64 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.60% | 53.60% |
| Buy Price | $3.97 | $2.62 |
| Current Price | $73.45 | $73.45 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -94.59% | -96.43% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 532.04 | 535.14 | 514.28 | 487.62 | 455.51 | 418.48 | 377.18 | 332.39 | 284.97 | 235.86 | Raw: 32,870.51 26,772.40 |
Raw: 22,053.82 13,862.47 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,296.98 | 18,035.92 |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,828.95 | 1,828.95 |
| Equity Value | 27,468.04 | 16,206.98 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,119.21 | 1,119.21 |
| Fair Value | $24.54 | $14.48 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 53.60% | 53.60% |
| Buy Price | $11.39 | $6.72 |
| Current Price | $73.45 | $73.45 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -84.50% | -90.85% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 390,982.85 | 678,588.16 | 1,177,754.69 | 2,044,105.98 | 3,547,741.55 | 6,157,444.98 | 10,686,835.06 | 18,548,025.01 | 32,191,872.50 | 55,872,075.59 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% | 73.56% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 39.10 | 67.86 | 117.78 | 204.41 | 354.77 | 615.74 | 1,068.68 | 1,854.80 | 3,219.19 | 5,587.21 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 37.46 | 58.36 | 95.28 | 155.53 | 253.90 | 414.48 | 676.62 | 1,104.55 | 1,803.12 | 2,943.50 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $76.06 | 10.71% | $82.51 | 8.47% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $60.95 | 13.87% | $45.82 | -24.82% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $47.86 | 14.15% | $28.39 | -40.69% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $28.55 | 13.69% | $42.09 | 47.44% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $34.61 | 18.82% | $56.90 | 64.41% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $35.15 | 21.22% | $59.84 | 70.23% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $44.74 | 24.17% | $31.31 | -30.03% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $27.12 | 18.60% | $28.12 | 3.70% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $20.18 | 14.50% | $-11.07 | -154.85% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $19.70 | 16.35% | $11.67 | -40.77% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $17.60 | 16.67% | $16.11 | -8.47% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $7.19 | 23.66% | $-0.67 | -109.25% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $14.49 | 20.02% | $-19.66 | -235.69% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $8.58 | 20.72% | $-16.98 | -297.94% |
| 2005 | 2005-12-31 | $6.39 | 24.99% | $-27.46 | -529.77% |
| 2004 | 2004-12-31 | $4.73 | 33.28% | $-45.31 | -1,057.90% |
| 2003 | 2003-12-31 | $4.60 | 40.62% | $-52.71 | -1,245.95% |
| 2002 | 2002-12-31 | $1.97 | 39.31% | $-22.50 | -1,241.96% |
| 2001 | 2001-12-31 | $2.48 | 37.75% | $-3.33 | -234.47% |
| 2000 | 2000-12-31 | $1.45 | 41.49% | $10.54 | 626.75% |
| $3.97 - $32.51 | 990 |
| $32.51 - $61.04 | 7 |
| $61.04 - $89.58 | 1 |
| $89.58 - $118.11 | 0 |
| $118.11 - $146.65 | 1 |
| $146.65 - $175.19 | 0 |
| $175.19 - $203.72 | 0 |
| $203.72 - $232.26 | 0 |
| $232.26 - $260.79 | 0 |
| $260.79 - $289.33 | 0 |
| $289.33 - $317.86 | 0 |
| $317.86 - $346.40 | 0 |
| $346.40 - $374.93 | 0 |
| $374.93 - $403.47 | 0 |
| $403.47 - $432.01 | 0 |
| $432.01 - $460.54 | 0 |
| $460.54 - $489.08 | 0 |
| $489.08 - $517.61 | 0 |
| $517.61 - $546.15 | 0 |
| $546.15 - $574.68 | 1 |