Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $6.24 |
| 5Y Range | 116.21 – 282.59 |
| 5Y Selected | 199.40 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.35% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $138.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2,126.31% |
| 10Y Range | 133.49 – 316.10 |
| 10Y Selected | 224.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.35% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $156.61 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2,409.84% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9469 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9760 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8742 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.9507 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.9683 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.9260 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3072 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.6222 |
| Safety Score | 0.6967 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 10.44% | 9.72% | 9.01% | 8.29% | 7.58% | 6.86% | 6.15% | 5.43% | 4.72% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 15,089.87 | 16,557.19 | 18,048.73 | 19,545.50 | 21,026.54 | 22,469.37 | 23,850.45 | 25,145.76 | 26,331.50 | 27,384.76 |
| EBITDA | 13,809.94 | 15,152.81 | 16,517.83 | 17,887.64 | 19,243.07 | 20,563.52 | 21,827.45 | 23,012.89 | 24,098.06 | 25,061.98 |
| D&A | -471.30 | -517.13 | -563.72 | -610.47 | -656.72 | -701.79 | -744.92 | -785.38 | -822.41 | -855.31 |
| EBIT | 13,338.64 | 14,635.67 | 15,954.12 | 17,277.18 | 18,586.35 | 19,861.73 | 21,082.52 | 22,227.51 | 23,275.65 | 24,206.67 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -3,279.60 | -3,598.51 | -3,922.68 | -4,247.98 | -4,569.87 | -4,883.45 | -5,183.61 | -5,465.13 | -5,722.84 | -5,951.75 |
| NOPAT | 10,059.04 | 11,037.17 | 12,031.44 | 13,029.20 | 14,016.48 | 14,978.28 | 15,898.91 | 16,762.38 | 17,552.81 | 18,254.92 |
| Capital Expenditures | -761.91 | -835.99 | -911.30 | -986.88 | -1,061.66 | -1,134.51 | -1,204.24 | -1,269.64 | -1,329.51 | -1,382.69 |
| NWC Investment | -937.71 | -964.62 | -980.54 | -983.98 | -973.64 | -948.52 | -907.92 | -851.54 | -779.51 | -692.42 |
| (+) D&A | 471.30 | 517.13 | 563.72 | 610.47 | 656.72 | 701.79 | 744.92 | 785.38 | 822.41 | 855.31 |
| Free Cash Flow | 8,830.73 | 9,753.68 | 10,703.31 | 11,668.81 | 12,637.90 | 13,597.04 | 14,531.68 | 15,426.58 | 16,266.20 | 17,035.12 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 | 2,026,137,787.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,774.46 | 9,471.06 | 9,749.62 | 9,970.92 | 10,130.31 | 10,224.25 | 10,250.43 | 10,207.87 | 10,096.97 | 9,919.49 | Raw: 373,286.61 289,807.68 |
Raw: 503,167.74 283,776.60 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 337,904.05 | 382,571.99 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,320.46 | 6,320.46 |
| Equity Value | 331,583.59 | 376,251.53 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,026.14 | 2,026.14 |
| Fair Value | $163.65 | $185.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.35% | 33.35% |
| Buy Price | $109.07 | $123.77 |
| Current Price | $6.24 | $6.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,647.99% | 1,883.47% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,766.27 | 9,430.47 | 9,617.61 | 9,744.50 | 9,808.27 | 9,807.22 | 9,740.96 | 9,610.36 | 9,417.60 | 9,166.09 | Raw: 259,829.60 194,400.85 |
Raw: 350,234.56 181,672.71 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 241,767.98 | 276,782.07 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,320.46 | 6,320.46 |
| Equity Value | 235,447.52 | 270,461.61 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,026.14 | 2,026.14 |
| Fair Value | $116.21 | $133.49 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.35% | 33.35% |
| Buy Price | $77.45 | $88.97 |
| Current Price | $6.24 | $6.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 1,141.20% | 1,325.78% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.83 | 0.78 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.63 | ||
| PV UFCF | 8,782.73 | 9,512.22 | 9,884.71 | 10,204.80 | 10,466.11 | 10,663.20 | 10,791.74 | 10,848.70 | 10,832.45 | 10,742.82 | Raw: 657,709.85 530,043.00 |
Raw: 886,553.04 544,056.58 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 578,893.57 | 646,786.05 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,320.46 | 6,320.46 |
| Equity Value | 572,573.11 | 640,465.59 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,026.14 | 2,026.14 |
| Fair Value | $282.59 | $316.10 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 33.35% | 33.35% |
| Buy Price | $188.35 | $210.68 |
| Current Price | $6.24 | $6.24 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 2,918.41% | 3,276.31% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 51,638.70 | 96,176.45 | 179,127.46 | 333,622.71 | 621,368.22 | 1,157,290.72 | 2,155,439.84 | 4,014,480.40 | 7,476,920.74 | 13,925,673.61 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% | 86.25% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.16 | 9.62 | 17.91 | 33.36 | 62.14 | 115.73 | 215.54 | 401.45 | 747.69 | 1,392.57 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.94 | 8.22 | 14.36 | 25.09 | 43.83 | 76.58 | 133.80 | 233.76 | 408.42 | 713.57 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $5.27 | 11.11% | $-50.19 | -1,052.37% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $5.14 | 11.43% | $-101.36 | -2,072.02% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $6.42 | 18.32% | $-111.72 | -1,840.14% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $5.74 | 23.94% | $-67.81 | -1,281.42% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $5.01 | 29.04% | $-156.59 | -3,225.49% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $3.99 | 24.16% | $-198.19 | -5,067.22% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $3.90 | 10.39% | $-79.55 | -2,139.66% |
| $95.56 - $174.84 | 434 |
| $174.84 - $254.11 | 382 |
| $254.11 - $333.39 | 104 |
| $333.39 - $412.67 | 42 |
| $412.67 - $491.95 | 13 |
| $491.95 - $571.22 | 10 |
| $571.22 - $650.50 | 6 |
| $650.50 - $729.78 | 4 |
| $729.78 - $809.05 | 1 |
| $809.05 - $888.33 | 0 |
| $888.33 - $967.61 | 1 |
| $967.61 - $1,046.89 | 2 |
| $1,046.89 - $1,126.16 | 0 |
| $1,126.16 - $1,205.44 | 0 |
| $1,205.44 - $1,284.72 | 0 |
| $1,284.72 - $1,364.00 | 0 |
| $1,364.00 - $1,443.27 | 0 |
| $1,443.27 - $1,522.55 | 0 |
| $1,522.55 - $1,601.83 | 0 |
| $1,601.83 - $1,681.10 | 1 |