Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $6.30 |
| 5Y Range | 8.05 – 16.54 |
| 5Y Selected | 12.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $2.23 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -64.63% |
| 10Y Range | 8.75 – 17.37 |
| 10Y Selected | 13.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $2.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.43% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7123 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.0047 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.8555 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.1970 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.7588 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0310 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.1957 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.3332 |
| Safety Score | 0.1812 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 2.11% | 2.32% | 2.53% | 2.74% | 2.95% | 3.16% | 3.37% | 3.58% | 3.79% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 12,310.81 | 12,595.87 | 12,914.06 | 13,267.48 | 13,658.51 | 14,089.82 | 14,564.41 | 15,085.66 | 15,657.32 | 16,283.61 |
| EBITDA | 9,230.65 | 9,444.39 | 9,682.97 | 9,947.96 | 10,241.16 | 10,564.55 | 10,920.40 | 11,311.23 | 11,739.86 | 12,209.46 |
| D&A | -3,269.61 | -3,345.32 | -3,429.83 | -3,523.69 | -3,627.54 | -3,742.09 | -3,868.14 | -4,006.58 | -4,158.40 | -4,324.74 |
| EBIT | 5,961.04 | 6,099.07 | 6,253.14 | 6,424.27 | 6,613.61 | 6,822.46 | 7,052.26 | 7,304.65 | 7,581.46 | 7,884.72 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -1,078.20 | -1,103.17 | -1,131.04 | -1,161.99 | -1,196.24 | -1,234.01 | -1,275.58 | -1,321.23 | -1,371.30 | -1,426.15 |
| NOPAT | 4,882.83 | 4,995.90 | 5,122.10 | 5,262.28 | 5,417.37 | 5,588.44 | 5,776.68 | 5,983.42 | 6,210.16 | 6,458.57 |
| Capital Expenditures | -4,176.78 | -4,273.49 | -4,381.45 | -4,501.36 | -4,634.02 | -4,780.36 | -4,941.37 | -5,118.22 | -5,312.17 | -5,524.66 |
| NWC Investment | 11.30 | 12.69 | 14.16 | 15.73 | 17.40 | 19.20 | 21.12 | 23.20 | 25.44 | 27.88 |
| (+) D&A | 3,269.61 | 3,345.32 | 3,429.83 | 3,523.69 | 3,627.54 | 3,742.09 | 3,868.14 | 4,006.58 | 4,158.40 | 4,324.74 |
| Free Cash Flow | 3,986.96 | 4,080.41 | 4,184.65 | 4,300.35 | 4,428.30 | 4,569.38 | 4,724.57 | 4,894.98 | 5,081.84 | 5,286.52 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 | 8,836,200,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,962.76 | 3,967.69 | 3,828.64 | 3,702.04 | 3,586.96 | 3,482.57 | 3,388.10 | 3,302.91 | 3,226.41 | 3,158.06 | Raw: 105,616.56 82,984.74 |
Raw: 126,085.55 73,062.07 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 102,032.84 | 108,668.23 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,522.22 | 6,522.22 |
| Equity Value | 95,510.62 | 102,146.01 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8,836.20 | 8,836.20 |
| Fair Value | $10.81 | $11.56 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% | 85.57% |
| Buy Price | $1.56 | $1.67 |
| Current Price | $6.30 | $6.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -75.24% | -73.52% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,959.05 | 3,950.64 | 3,776.65 | 3,617.73 | 3,472.60 | 3,340.10 | 3,219.21 | 3,109.02 | 3,008.69 | 2,917.51 | Raw: 77,808.77 58,909.92 |
Raw: 92,888.48 49,493.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 77,686.58 | 83,864.43 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,522.22 | 6,522.22 |
| Equity Value | 71,164.36 | 77,342.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8,836.20 | 8,836.20 |
| Fair Value | $8.05 | $8.75 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% | 85.57% |
| Buy Price | $1.16 | $1.26 |
| Current Price | $6.30 | $6.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -81.55% | -79.95% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 3,966.50 | 3,984.99 | 3,881.85 | 3,789.15 | 3,706.23 | 3,632.54 | 3,567.58 | 3,510.91 | 3,462.17 | 3,421.02 | Raw: 163,467.75 133,338.91 |
Raw: 195,148.58 123,077.64 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 152,667.64 | 160,000.59 |
| (-) Net Debt | 6,522.22 | 6,522.22 |
| Equity Value | 146,145.41 | 153,478.37 |
| (/) Shares Out | 8,836.20 | 8,836.20 |
| Fair Value | $16.54 | $17.37 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.57% | 85.57% |
| Buy Price | $2.39 | $2.51 |
| Current Price | $6.30 | $6.30 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.12% | -60.22% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 50,216.86 | 105,950.70 | 223,541.49 | 471,641.99 | 995,100.11 | 2,099,525.18 | 4,429,711.09 | 9,346,084.78 | 19,718,961.11 | 41,604,311.98 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% | 110.99% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 5.02 | 10.60 | 22.35 | 47.16 | 99.51 | 209.95 | 442.97 | 934.61 | 1,971.90 | 4,160.43 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 4.81 | 9.12 | 18.11 | 35.95 | 71.36 | 141.67 | 281.24 | 558.32 | 1,108.38 | 2,200.36 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $7.68 | 3.03% | $0.41 | -94.62% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $7.90 | 1.59% | $-2.05 | -125.94% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $7.15 | -0.91% | $0.75 | -89.56% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $6.40 | -1.72% | $3.66 | -42.87% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $6.50 | -2.74% | $4.01 | -38.36% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $5.12 | -0.69% | $3.28 | -35.90% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $5.34 | 0.83% | $-3.28 | -161.50% |
| $6.49 - $8.39 | 65 |
| $8.39 - $10.29 | 243 |
| $10.29 - $12.18 | 303 |
| $12.18 - $14.08 | 158 |
| $14.08 - $15.98 | 96 |
| $15.98 - $17.88 | 60 |
| $17.88 - $19.78 | 32 |
| $19.78 - $21.68 | 17 |
| $21.68 - $23.58 | 9 |
| $23.58 - $25.47 | 7 |
| $25.47 - $27.37 | 2 |
| $27.37 - $29.27 | 2 |
| $29.27 - $31.17 | 3 |
| $31.17 - $33.07 | 1 |
| $33.07 - $34.97 | 1 |
| $34.97 - $36.87 | 0 |
| $36.87 - $38.77 | 0 |
| $38.77 - $40.66 | 0 |
| $40.66 - $42.56 | 0 |
| $42.56 - $44.46 | 1 |