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Jacobson Pharma Corporation Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.29
5Y Range3.02 – 5.94
5Y Selected4.48
(-) Safety Margin72.41%
5Y Buy Price$1.38
Upside (to Buy Price)6.73%
10Y Range3.17 – 6.03
10Y Selected4.60
(-) Safety Margin72.41%
10Y Buy Price$1.41
Upside (to Buy Price)9.64%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0247
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.4824
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9328
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5485
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9506
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6693
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0307
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5041
Safety Score0.3075

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth0.42%0.82%1.22%1.61%2.01%2.41%2.81%3.20%3.60%4.00%
Revenue1,583.541,596.501,615.921,642.001,675.041,715.401,763.551,820.061,885.631,961.05
EBITDA496.89500.96507.06515.24525.61538.27553.38571.11591.69615.35
D&A-149.95-151.18-153.02-155.48-158.61-162.43-166.99-172.35-178.55-185.70
EBIT346.95349.79354.04359.76366.99375.83386.38398.77413.13429.66
Pro forma Taxes-61.29-61.79-62.54-63.55-64.83-66.39-68.26-70.44-72.98-75.90
NOPAT285.66287.99291.50296.20302.16309.44318.13328.32340.15353.76
Capital Expenditures-107.99-108.87-110.20-111.98-114.23-116.98-120.26-124.12-128.59-133.73
NWC Investment-0.48-0.93-1.39-1.87-2.37-2.90-3.46-4.06-4.71-5.42
(+) D&A149.95151.18153.02155.48158.61162.43166.99172.35178.55185.70
Free Cash Flow327.14329.37332.92337.84344.17352.00361.40372.49385.41400.30
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.001,952,603,973.00

Discounting Periods

MetricMar-26Mar-27Mar-28Mar-29Mar-30Mar-31Mar-32Mar-33Mar-34Mar-35
Period Start3/31/254/1/264/1/274/1/284/1/294/1/304/1/314/1/324/1/334/1/34
Period End3/31/263/31/273/31/283/31/293/31/303/31/313/31/323/31/333/31/343/31/35
Mid-Point9/29/259/30/269/30/279/30/289/30/299/30/309/30/319/30/329/30/339/30/34
Time (t)0.100.701.712.713.714.715.716.717.718.71
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.53%Terminal Growth: 2.24%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.900.840.790.740.700.650.610.58
PV UFCF325.08315.10298.80284.63272.19261.32251.86243.68236.68230.76
Raw: 8,207.55
6,289.00
Raw: 9,546.05
5,331.65

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value7,784.808,051.74
(-) Net Debt39.7639.76
Equity Value7,745.038,011.98
(/) Shares Out1,952.601,952.60
Fair Value$3.97$4.10
(-) Safety Margin72.41%72.41%
Buy Price$1.09$1.13
Current Price$1.29$1.29
Upside (to Buy Price)-15.17%-12.24%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.53%Terminal Growth: 1.74%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.880.820.760.710.660.610.570.53
PV UFCF324.77313.05294.06277.51262.92250.07238.77228.87220.23212.72
Raw: 6,050.54
4,457.37
Raw: 7,037.27
3,606.37

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,929.686,229.35
(-) Net Debt39.7639.76
Equity Value5,889.926,189.58
(/) Shares Out1,952.601,952.60
Fair Value$3.02$3.17
(-) Safety Margin72.41%72.41%
Buy Price$0.83$0.87
Current Price$1.29$1.29
Upside (to Buy Price)-35.49%-32.20%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.53%Terminal Growth: 2.74%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.910.860.820.780.740.700.660.63
PV UFCF325.38317.19303.65292.00281.89273.19265.79259.60254.53250.52
Raw: 12,686.12
10,114.42
Raw: 14,755.00
8,988.79

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value11,634.5411,812.53
(-) Net Debt39.7639.76
Equity Value11,594.7711,772.77
(/) Shares Out1,952.601,952.60
Fair Value$5.94$6.03
(-) Safety Margin72.41%72.41%
Buy Price$1.64$1.66
Current Price$1.29$1.29
Upside (to Buy Price)27.00%28.95%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.29
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH88.81%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue5,748.7610,854.3620,494.3638,695.8673,062.53137,951.01260,468.41491,796.28928,571.661,753,257.09
Constant Implied Growth88.81%88.81%88.81%88.81%88.81%88.81%88.81%88.81%88.81%88.81%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.571.092.053.877.3113.8026.0549.1892.86175.33
Discount Factor0.990.900.840.790.740.700.650.610.580.54
Present Value of Implied FCF0.570.971.733.065.429.6117.0430.2053.5394.87

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-03-31$1.410.16%$1.6013.83%
20192019-03-31$1.591.41%$2.5761.72%
20182018-03-31$1.824.48%$1.19-34.56%
20172017-03-31$1.60-0.62%$0.29-81.61%
20162016-03-31$1.68-1.85%$0.65-61.25%
20152015-03-31$1.68-1.29%$-1.68-199.83%
20142014-03-31$1.687.22%$-0.69-141.06%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$4.50
Median
$4.19
10th Percentile
$3.19
90th Percentile
$6.21

Fair Value Distribution

$2.53 - $3.06
75
$3.06 - $3.60
178
$3.60 - $4.13
227
$4.13 - $4.67
192
$4.67 - $5.20
107
$5.20 - $5.73
75
$5.73 - $6.27
53
$6.27 - $6.80
26
$6.80 - $7.34
28
$7.34 - $7.87
14
$7.87 - $8.40
10
$8.40 - $8.94
1
$8.94 - $9.47
2
$9.47 - $10.00
2
$10.00 - $10.54
3
$10.54 - $11.07
1
$11.07 - $11.61
1
$11.61 - $12.14
3
$12.14 - $12.67
1
$12.67 - $13.21
1