Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $183.50 |
| 5Y Range | 1,859.40 – 4,255.89 |
| 5Y Selected | 3,057.65 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.80% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $715.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 290.08% |
| 10Y Range | 2,063.11 – 4,582.79 |
| 10Y Selected | 3,322.95 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.80% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $777.90 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 323.92% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.0782 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5794 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0010 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.3632 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0149 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.4702 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0035 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.2745 |
| Safety Score | 0.2341 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.13% | 11.22% | 10.32% | 9.42% | 8.51% | 7.61% | 6.71% | 5.81% | 4.90% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 519,782.86 | 578,121.39 | 637,787.44 | 697,852.51 | 757,273.05 | 814,915.29 | 869,586.84 | 920,074.25 | 965,185.07 | 1,003,792.48 |
| EBITDA | 175,872.09 | 195,611.32 | 215,799.74 | 236,123.17 | 256,228.51 | 275,732.16 | 294,230.65 | 311,313.41 | 326,576.97 | 339,640.05 |
| D&A | -36,333.89 | -40,411.87 | -44,582.65 | -48,781.32 | -52,934.94 | -56,964.25 | -60,785.90 | -64,315.07 | -67,468.41 | -70,167.15 |
| EBIT | 139,538.20 | 155,199.46 | 171,217.09 | 187,341.85 | 203,293.58 | 218,767.91 | 233,444.75 | 246,998.34 | 259,108.56 | 269,472.90 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -21,037.77 | -23,398.97 | -25,813.90 | -28,244.99 | -30,649.98 | -32,983.00 | -35,195.79 | -37,239.22 | -39,065.05 | -40,627.65 |
| NOPAT | 118,500.43 | 131,800.48 | 145,403.19 | 159,096.86 | 172,643.59 | 185,784.91 | 198,248.96 | 209,759.12 | 220,043.51 | 228,845.25 |
| Capital Expenditures | -17,587.07 | -19,560.98 | -21,579.80 | -23,612.13 | -25,622.65 | -27,573.00 | -29,422.83 | -31,131.10 | -32,657.44 | -33,963.74 |
| NWC Investment | 14,310.47 | 14,851.05 | 15,189.00 | 15,290.58 | 15,126.50 | 14,673.80 | 13,917.56 | 12,852.42 | 11,483.72 | 9,828.17 |
| (+) D&A | 36,333.89 | 40,411.87 | 44,582.65 | 48,781.32 | 52,934.94 | 56,964.25 | 60,785.90 | 64,315.07 | 67,468.41 | 70,167.15 |
| Free Cash Flow | 151,557.71 | 167,502.43 | 183,595.03 | 199,556.62 | 215,082.38 | 229,849.96 | 243,529.59 | 255,795.52 | 266,338.20 | 274,876.83 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 | 2,165,223,750.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 150,605.04 | 162,713.59 | 167,447.35 | 170,882.72 | 172,922.49 | 173,502.49 | 172,594.78 | 170,209.37 | 166,394.37 | 161,234.49 | Raw: 6,066,901.85 4,726,296.07 |
Raw: 7,753,544.06 4,406,841.08 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 5,550,867.27 | 6,075,347.77 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2,487.58 | -2,487.58 |
| Equity Value | 5,553,354.84 | 6,077,835.35 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,165.22 | 2,165.22 |
| Fair Value | $2,564.79 | $2,807.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.80% | 79.80% |
| Buy Price | $518.09 | $567.02 |
| Current Price | $183.50 | $183.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 182.34% | 209.00% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.54 | ||
| PV UFCF | 150,464.36 | 162,015.63 | 165,178.24 | 166,999.12 | 167,420.63 | 166,419.68 | 164,009.16 | 160,237.96 | 155,189.40 | 148,978.24 | Raw: 4,277,795.38 3,211,457.71 |
Raw: 5,467,053.16 2,857,696.17 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,023,535.70 | 4,464,608.60 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2,487.58 | -2,487.58 |
| Equity Value | 4,026,023.28 | 4,467,096.18 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,165.22 | 2,165.22 |
| Fair Value | $1,859.40 | $2,063.11 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.80% | 79.80% |
| Buy Price | $375.60 | $416.75 |
| Current Price | $183.50 | $183.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 104.69% | 127.11% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.92 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 150,747.18 | 163,421.19 | 169,769.49 | 174,894.56 | 178,659.63 | 180,957.87 | 181,717.28 | 180,904.29 | 178,525.74 | 174,629.23 | Raw: 10,356,338.87 8,374,976.01 |
Raw: 13,235,475.33 8,186,044.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,212,468.06 | 9,920,270.61 |
| (-) Net Debt | -2,487.58 | -2,487.58 |
| Equity Value | 9,214,955.63 | 9,922,758.19 |
| (/) Shares Out | 2,165.22 | 2,165.22 |
| Fair Value | $4,255.89 | $4,582.79 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.80% | 79.80% |
| Buy Price | $859.69 | $925.72 |
| Current Price | $183.50 | $183.50 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 368.50% | 404.48% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 786,755.53 | 1,512,718.06 | 2,908,547.63 | 5,592,350.31 | 10,752,576.86 | 20,674,296.65 | 39,751,079.90 | 76,430,573.68 | 146,955,318.11 | 282,555,324.17 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% | 92.27% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 78.68 | 151.27 | 290.85 | 559.24 | 1,075.26 | 2,067.43 | 3,975.11 | 7,643.06 | 14,695.53 | 28,255.53 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.86 | 0.80 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 74.66 | 129.54 | 233.84 | 422.14 | 762.06 | 1,375.69 | 2,483.44 | 4,483.19 | 8,093.19 | 14,610.08 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $31.00 | 8.12% | $89.02 | 187.15% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $29.54 | 14.52% | $-147.77 | -600.25% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $42.30 | 29.76% | $293.71 | 594.36% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $25.82 | 17.64% | $-82.92 | -421.13% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $30.83 | 5.32% | $6.66 | -78.40% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $51.60 | 4.53% | $65.24 | 26.43% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $41.92 | 1.82% | $-104.63 | -349.59% |
| 2012 | 2012-12-31 | $42.04 | -0.05% | $-215.07 | -611.58% |
| 2011 | 2011-12-31 | $35.24 | -2.88% | $-197.95 | -661.72% |
| 2010 | 2010-12-31 | $63.45 | 4.75% | $173.19 | 172.96% |
| 2009 | 2009-12-31 | $37.38 | 7.71% | $-229.61 | -714.26% |
| 2008 | 2008-12-31 | $32.35 | 12.93% | $-84.34 | -360.73% |
| 2007 | 2007-12-31 | $61.98 | 4.06% | $144.72 | 133.50% |
| 2006 | 2006-12-31 | $39.47 | -8.94% | $-31.22 | -179.10% |
| $1,555.81 - $2,555.33 | 374 |
| $2,555.33 - $3,554.85 | 390 |
| $3,554.85 - $4,554.37 | 128 |
| $4,554.37 - $5,553.89 | 58 |
| $5,553.89 - $6,553.41 | 22 |
| $6,553.41 - $7,552.94 | 11 |
| $7,552.94 - $8,552.46 | 1 |
| $8,552.46 - $9,551.98 | 5 |
| $9,551.98 - $10,551.50 | 0 |
| $10,551.50 - $11,551.02 | 4 |
| $11,551.02 - $12,550.54 | 0 |
| $12,550.54 - $13,550.06 | 0 |
| $13,550.06 - $14,549.59 | 1 |
| $14,549.59 - $15,549.11 | 1 |
| $15,549.11 - $16,548.63 | 2 |
| $16,548.63 - $17,548.15 | 1 |
| $17,548.15 - $18,547.67 | 0 |
| $18,547.67 - $19,547.19 | 1 |
| $19,547.19 - $20,546.71 | 0 |
| $20,546.71 - $21,546.24 | 1 |