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Anhui Conch Material Technology Co Ltd

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$1.72
5Y Range-10.17 – -4.34
5Y Selected-7.26
(-) Safety Margin80.83%
5Y Buy Price$-1.62
Upside (to Buy Price)-194.46%
10Y Range-10.36 – -4.58
10Y Selected-7.47
(-) Safety Margin80.83%
10Y Buy Price$-1.67
Upside (to Buy Price)-197.23%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9078
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9078
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.1516
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1516
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4016
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4016
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1232
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1232
Safety Score0.2239

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.35%5.20%5.05%4.90%4.75%4.60%4.45%4.30%4.15%4.00%
Revenue2,511.722,642.352,775.812,911.843,050.173,190.493,332.483,475.783,620.033,764.83
EBITDA281.38296.02310.97326.21341.70357.42373.33389.39405.55421.77
D&A-59.24-62.32-65.46-68.67-71.93-75.24-78.59-81.97-85.37-88.79
EBIT222.15233.70245.50257.54269.77282.18294.74307.41320.17332.98
Pro forma Taxes-37.77-39.73-41.74-43.78-45.86-47.97-50.11-52.26-54.43-56.61
NOPAT184.38193.97203.77213.75223.91234.21244.63255.15265.74276.37
Capital Expenditures-326.80-343.80-361.16-378.86-396.86-415.11-433.59-452.23-471.00-489.84
NWC Investment-11.25-11.52-11.77-12.00-12.20-12.38-12.52-12.64-12.72-12.77
(+) D&A59.2462.3265.4668.6771.9375.2478.5981.9785.3788.79
Free Cash Flow-94.43-99.03-103.70-108.43-113.22-118.04-122.89-127.75-132.61-137.45
Diluted Shares Outstanding540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00540,593,750.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.50%Terminal Growth: 3.07%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-93.84-96.26-94.65-92.87-91.05-89.13-87.13-85.05-82.90-80.68
Raw: -3,398.95
-2,648.71
Raw: -4,126.65
-2,347.09

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-3,117.38-3,240.65
(-) Net Debt116.78116.78
Equity Value-3,234.15-3,357.42
(/) Shares Out540.59540.59
Fair Value$-5.98$-6.21
(-) Safety Margin80.83%80.83%
Buy Price$-1.15$-1.19
Current Price$1.72$1.72
Upside (to Buy Price)-166.68%-169.22%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.50%Terminal Growth: 2.57%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF-93.75-95.86-93.38-90.76-88.15-85.49-82.80-80.07-77.31-74.55
Raw: -2,353.95
-1,767.72
Raw: -2,857.92
-1,494.91

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-2,229.62-2,357.02
(-) Net Debt116.78116.78
Equity Value-2,346.39-2,473.80
(/) Shares Out540.59540.59
Fair Value$-4.34$-4.58
(-) Safety Margin80.83%80.83%
Buy Price$-0.83$-0.88
Current Price$1.72$1.72
Upside (to Buy Price)-148.38%-151.00%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.50%Terminal Growth: 3.57%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF-93.93-96.67-95.95-95.05-94.07-92.96-91.74-90.39-88.94-87.38
Raw: -6,065.74
-4,906.79
Raw: -7,364.39
-4,558.05

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-5,382.46-5,485.13
(-) Net Debt116.78116.78
Equity Value-5,499.24-5,601.91
(/) Shares Out540.59540.59
Fair Value$-10.17$-10.36
(-) Safety Margin80.83%80.83%
Buy Price$-1.95$-1.99
Current Price$1.72$1.72
Upside (to Buy Price)-213.38%-215.49%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$1.72
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH63.95%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue8,550.9814,019.0322,983.7237,681.0161,776.72101,280.79166,046.34272,227.21446,307.08731,704.99
Constant Implied Growth63.95%63.95%63.95%63.95%63.95%63.95%63.95%63.95%63.95%63.95%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.861.402.303.776.1810.1316.6027.2244.6373.17
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF0.821.201.852.854.386.7410.3815.9824.6037.87

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
Error: Rolling DCF Data Not Available
Debug Info: Read Error

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-6.95
Median
$-6.07
10th Percentile
$-10.34
90th Percentile
$-4.57

Fair Value Distribution

$-41.42 - $-39.45
1
$-39.45 - $-37.48
0
$-37.48 - $-35.51
0
$-35.51 - $-33.54
0
$-33.54 - $-31.57
0
$-31.57 - $-29.60
0
$-29.60 - $-27.63
0
$-27.63 - $-25.66
0
$-25.66 - $-23.69
2
$-23.69 - $-21.72
1
$-21.72 - $-19.75
6
$-19.75 - $-17.78
2
$-17.78 - $-15.81
6
$-15.81 - $-13.84
16
$-13.84 - $-11.87
31
$-11.87 - $-9.90
49
$-9.90 - $-7.93
123
$-7.93 - $-5.96
289
$-5.96 - $-3.99
448
$-3.99 - $-2.02
25