Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $7.15 |
| 5Y Range | 9.29 – 21.86 |
| 5Y Selected | 15.58 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.48% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $3.14 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -56.10% |
| 10Y Range | 9.62 – 21.78 |
| 10Y Selected | 15.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.48% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $3.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -55.76% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.5919 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.5919 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0907 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0907 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0301 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0301 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.5160 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.5160 |
| Safety Score | 0.2015 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.00% | 0.44% | 0.89% | 1.33% | 1.78% | 2.22% | 2.67% | 3.11% | 3.56% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,917.81 | 4,939.50 | 4,983.25 | 5,049.57 | 5,139.23 | 5,253.35 | 5,393.37 | 5,561.12 | 5,758.82 | 5,989.18 |
| EBITDA | 834.55 | 838.23 | 845.65 | 856.91 | 872.12 | 891.49 | 915.25 | 943.71 | 977.26 | 1,016.36 |
| D&A | -61.20 | -61.47 | -62.02 | -62.84 | -63.96 | -65.38 | -67.12 | -69.21 | -71.67 | -74.54 |
| EBIT | 773.34 | 776.75 | 783.64 | 794.06 | 808.16 | 826.11 | 848.13 | 874.51 | 905.60 | 941.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -130.73 | -131.30 | -132.46 | -134.23 | -136.61 | -139.64 | -143.37 | -147.83 | -153.08 | -159.20 |
| NOPAT | 642.62 | 645.45 | 651.17 | 659.84 | 671.55 | 686.46 | 704.76 | 726.68 | 752.52 | 782.62 |
| Capital Expenditures | -109.55 | -110.04 | -111.01 | -112.49 | -114.49 | -117.03 | -120.15 | -123.89 | -128.29 | -133.42 |
| NWC Investment | -0.01 | 0.87 | 1.76 | 2.67 | 3.61 | 4.59 | 5.64 | 6.75 | 7.96 | 9.27 |
| (+) D&A | 61.20 | 61.47 | 62.02 | 62.84 | 63.96 | 65.38 | 67.12 | 69.21 | 71.67 | 74.54 |
| Free Cash Flow | 594.26 | 597.76 | 603.94 | 612.86 | 624.63 | 639.41 | 657.37 | 678.76 | 703.85 | 733.00 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 | 1,385,711,047.75 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 590.63 | 581.17 | 552.33 | 527.22 | 505.46 | 486.70 | 470.68 | 457.15 | 445.92 | 436.82 | Raw: 18,681.29 14,661.58 |
Raw: 21,922.40 12,670.72 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,418.39 | 17,724.81 |
| (-) Net Debt | -371.06 | -371.06 |
| Equity Value | 17,789.46 | 18,095.87 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 |
| Fair Value | $12.84 | $13.06 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.48% | 83.48% |
| Buy Price | $2.12 | $2.16 |
| Current Price | $7.15 | $7.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -70.34% | -69.83% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 590.08 | 578.67 | 544.83 | 515.22 | 489.35 | 466.80 | 447.22 | 430.32 | 415.83 | 403.56 | Raw: 12,945.13 9,789.91 |
Raw: 15,191.05 8,073.63 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,508.06 | 12,955.51 |
| (-) Net Debt | -371.06 | -371.06 |
| Equity Value | 12,879.12 | 13,326.58 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 |
| Fair Value | $9.29 | $9.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.48% | 83.48% |
| Buy Price | $1.54 | $1.59 |
| Current Price | $7.15 | $7.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -78.53% | -77.78% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 591.19 | 583.70 | 560.00 | 539.62 | 522.26 | 507.66 | 495.61 | 485.93 | 478.49 | 473.18 | Raw: 33,289.66 27,122.98 |
Raw: 39,065.26 24,574.26 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 29,919.76 | 29,811.91 |
| (-) Net Debt | -371.06 | -371.06 |
| Equity Value | 30,290.82 | 30,182.97 |
| (/) Shares Out | 1,385.71 | 1,385.71 |
| Fair Value | $21.86 | $21.78 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 83.48% | 83.48% |
| Buy Price | $3.61 | $3.60 |
| Current Price | $7.15 | $7.15 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.49% | -49.67% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 19,872.62 | 37,751.18 | 71,714.33 | 136,232.72 | 258,795.60 | 491,623.19 | 933,916.02 | 1,774,121.23 | 3,370,223.95 | 6,402,273.57 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% | 89.97% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.99 | 3.78 | 7.17 | 13.62 | 25.88 | 49.16 | 93.39 | 177.41 | 337.02 | 640.23 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.90 | 3.25 | 5.80 | 10.37 | 18.53 | 33.11 | 59.17 | 105.73 | 188.92 | 337.59 |
| $6.53 - $17.73 | 823 |
| $17.73 - $28.94 | 139 |
| $28.94 - $40.14 | 22 |
| $40.14 - $51.35 | 6 |
| $51.35 - $62.55 | 1 |
| $62.55 - $73.76 | 3 |
| $73.76 - $84.97 | 2 |
| $84.97 - $96.17 | 0 |
| $96.17 - $107.38 | 1 |
| $107.38 - $118.58 | 0 |
| $118.58 - $129.79 | 1 |
| $129.79 - $140.99 | 0 |
| $140.99 - $152.20 | 1 |
| $152.20 - $163.41 | 0 |
| $163.41 - $174.61 | 0 |
| $174.61 - $185.82 | 0 |
| $185.82 - $197.02 | 0 |
| $197.02 - $208.23 | 0 |
| $208.23 - $219.43 | 0 |
| $219.43 - $230.64 | 1 |