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Goldsun Building Materials Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$36.55
5Y Range40.15 – 89.17
5Y Selected64.66
(-) Safety Margin79.90%
5Y Buy Price$15.34
Upside (to Buy Price)-58.04%
10Y Range44.26 – 95.52
10Y Selected69.89
(-) Safety Margin79.90%
10Y Buy Price$16.58
Upside (to Buy Price)-54.64%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4229
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.1060
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.7883
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5917
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.8426
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.5606
FCF R2 (5Y)0.6102
FCF R2 (10Y)0.4195
Safety Score0.2372

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.43%5.27%5.11%4.95%4.79%4.63%4.48%4.32%4.16%4.00%
Revenue22,897.1624,103.3525,334.8926,589.1927,863.4629,154.6330,459.4431,774.3633,095.6934,419.52
EBITDA5,913.106,224.596,542.636,866.557,195.627,529.067,866.028,205.608,546.838,888.70
D&A-1,032.25-1,086.63-1,142.15-1,198.70-1,256.14-1,314.35-1,373.18-1,432.46-1,492.02-1,551.70
EBIT4,880.855,137.965,400.485,667.855,939.486,214.716,492.856,773.147,054.807,336.99
Pro forma Taxes-1,204.51-1,267.96-1,332.74-1,398.73-1,465.76-1,533.68-1,602.32-1,671.49-1,741.00-1,810.64
NOPAT3,676.343,870.004,067.744,269.134,473.724,681.034,890.535,101.655,313.805,526.35
Capital Expenditures-2,411.99-2,539.05-2,668.78-2,800.91-2,935.14-3,071.15-3,208.60-3,347.11-3,486.30-3,625.75
NWC Investment-236.03-241.57-246.64-251.20-255.20-258.59-261.31-263.34-264.63-265.12
(+) D&A1,032.251,086.631,142.151,198.701,256.141,314.351,373.181,432.461,492.021,551.70
Free Cash Flow2,060.582,176.022,294.472,415.712,539.532,665.652,793.792,923.653,054.903,187.18
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.501,178,050,660.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.32%Terminal Growth: 2.57%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF2,048.002,115.572,098.212,077.862,054.592,028.511,999.731,968.361,934.551,898.42
Raw: 69,468.15
54,507.90
Raw: 87,184.52
50,364.60

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value64,902.1370,588.39
(-) Net Debt280.23280.23
Equity Value64,621.9070,308.16
(/) Shares Out1,178.051,178.05
Fair Value$54.85$59.68
(-) Safety Margin79.90%79.90%
Buy Price$11.03$12.00
Current Price$36.55$36.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-69.83%-67.18%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.32%Terminal Growth: 2.07%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF2,046.082,106.482,069.732,030.551,989.101,945.561,900.081,852.851,804.051,753.86
Raw: 49,376.28
37,332.86
Raw: 61,968.64
32,917.58

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value47,574.8052,415.91
(-) Net Debt280.23280.23
Equity Value47,294.5752,135.67
(/) Shares Out1,178.051,178.05
Fair Value$40.15$44.26
(-) Safety Margin79.90%79.90%
Buy Price$8.07$8.90
Current Price$36.55$36.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-77.92%-75.66%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.32%Terminal Growth: 3.07%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.65
PV UFCF2,049.932,124.792,127.362,126.732,122.882,115.842,105.622,092.282,075.852,056.43
Raw: 116,355.34
94,779.19
Raw: 146,029.27
91,812.18

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value105,330.89112,809.90
(-) Net Debt280.23280.23
Equity Value105,050.66112,529.67
(/) Shares Out1,178.051,178.05
Fair Value$89.17$95.52
(-) Safety Margin79.90%79.90%
Buy Price$17.92$19.20
Current Price$36.55$36.55
Upside (to Buy Price)-50.96%-47.47%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$36.55
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH104.83%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue46,067.7094,362.31193,286.09395,915.59810,969.681,661,141.513,402,582.346,969,644.9814,276,201.5029,242,512.35
Constant Implied Growth104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%104.83%
Implied Free Cash Flow4.619.4419.3339.5981.10166.11340.26696.961,427.622,924.25
Discount Factor0.950.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF4.388.1215.6430.1358.05111.84215.47415.14799.831,541.01

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$16.834.40%$-2.50-114.83%
20182018-12-31$9.754.31%$-20.24-307.62%
20172017-12-31$11.424.30%$-7.66-167.05%
20162016-12-31$7.755.29%$-117.13-1,611.37%
20152015-12-31$10.45-5.94%$-42.74-508.98%
20142014-12-31$12.91-5.35%$-80.66-724.81%
20132013-12-31$14.49-13.58%$-35.25-343.25%
20122012-12-31$13.20-13.99%$-40.18-404.36%
20112011-12-31$12.21-1.86%$-24.11-297.45%
20102010-12-31$18.970.99%$9.85-48.06%
20092009-12-31$16.739.83%$55.58232.25%
20082008-12-31$10.118.27%$-16.80-266.21%
20072007-12-31$14.953.27%$12.90-13.70%
20062006-12-31$17.673.74%$-20.71-217.23%
20052005-12-31$9.005.56%$-16.02-277.97%
20042004-12-31$8.236.88%$37.66357.64%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$68.75
Median
$59.36
10th Percentile
$44.63
90th Percentile
$97.64

Fair Value Distribution

$29.53 - $95.99
893
$95.99 - $162.45
89
$162.45 - $228.91
13
$228.91 - $295.37
2
$295.37 - $361.83
1
$361.83 - $428.29
1
$428.29 - $494.75
0
$494.75 - $561.21
0
$561.21 - $627.67
0
$627.67 - $694.13
0
$694.13 - $760.59
0
$760.59 - $827.05
0
$827.05 - $893.51
0
$893.51 - $959.97
0
$959.97 - $1,026.43
0
$1,026.43 - $1,092.89
0
$1,092.89 - $1,159.35
0
$1,159.35 - $1,225.81
0
$1,225.81 - $1,292.26
0
$1,292.26 - $1,358.72
1