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Sunrex Technology Corporation

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$39.15
5Y Range90.74 – 184.65
5Y Selected137.69
(-) Safety Margin77.33%
5Y Buy Price$34.40
Upside (to Buy Price)-12.14%
10Y Range107.35 – 214.81
10Y Selected161.08
(-) Safety Margin77.33%
10Y Buy Price$40.24
Upside (to Buy Price)2.78%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0577
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.5749
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.4337
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5212
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7804
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7049
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5955
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0915
Safety Score0.2498

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth8.13%7.67%7.21%6.75%6.29%5.83%5.38%4.92%4.46%4.00%
Revenue25,462.1127,414.9929,391.9031,376.5333,351.2535,297.2537,194.8939,023.9240,763.8942,394.45
EBITDA3,009.483,240.303,473.963,708.533,941.934,171.944,396.234,612.414,818.065,010.79
D&A-1,556.93-1,676.35-1,797.23-1,918.58-2,039.33-2,158.33-2,274.36-2,386.20-2,492.59-2,592.30
EBIT1,452.541,563.951,676.731,789.951,902.602,013.612,121.872,226.212,325.472,418.49
Pro forma Taxes-497.98-536.18-574.84-613.65-652.27-690.33-727.45-763.22-797.25-829.14
NOPAT954.561,027.781,101.891,176.291,250.321,323.281,394.421,462.991,528.221,589.35
Capital Expenditures-1,475.32-1,588.47-1,703.02-1,818.01-1,932.43-2,045.18-2,155.14-2,261.11-2,361.93-2,456.41
NWC Investment-298.20-304.25-307.99-309.19-307.65-303.17-295.64-284.95-271.08-254.03
(+) D&A1,556.931,676.351,797.231,918.582,039.332,158.332,274.362,386.202,492.592,592.30
Free Cash Flow737.98811.41888.11967.671,049.581,133.251,218.011,303.131,387.811,471.21
Diluted Shares Outstanding198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25198,371,221.25

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start9/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point11/15/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 7.01%Terminal Growth: 2.86%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.790.740.690.650.600.56
PV UFCF733.00787.05805.06819.19830.35837.84841.55841.41837.42829.62
Raw: 26,034.19
19,910.66
Raw: 36,492.47
19,893.05

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value23,885.3128,055.53
(-) Net Debt-59.90-59.90
Equity Value23,945.2128,115.42
(/) Shares Out198.37198.37
Fair Value$120.71$141.73
(-) Safety Margin77.33%77.33%
Buy Price$27.36$32.13
Current Price$39.15$39.15
Upside (to Buy Price)-30.10%-17.93%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 8.01%Terminal Growth: 2.36%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.890.830.770.710.660.610.560.52
PV UFCF732.31783.77794.27800.66804.05803.79799.87792.34781.28766.83
Raw: 19,025.63
14,024.37
Raw: 26,668.48
13,375.20

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,939.4321,234.37
(-) Net Debt-59.90-59.90
Equity Value17,999.3321,294.27
(/) Shares Out198.37198.37
Fair Value$90.74$107.35
(-) Safety Margin77.33%77.33%
Buy Price$20.57$24.34
Current Price$39.15$39.15
Upside (to Buy Price)-47.46%-37.84%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 6.01%Terminal Growth: 3.36%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.920.870.820.770.730.690.650.61
PV UFCF733.68790.39816.09838.33857.77873.67885.81894.02898.17898.20
Raw: 40,986.49
32,533.44
Raw: 57,451.30
34,067.02

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value36,569.7042,553.16
(-) Net Debt-59.90-59.90
Equity Value36,629.6042,613.06
(/) Shares Out198.37198.37
Fair Value$184.65$214.81
(-) Safety Margin77.33%77.33%
Buy Price$41.86$48.70
Current Price$39.15$39.15
Upside (to Buy Price)6.92%24.39%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$39.15
WACC Used7.0%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH77.66%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue36,077.8164,096.25113,874.13202,310.06359,426.35638,560.931,134,474.582,015,520.383,580,796.356,361,683.35
Constant Implied Growth77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%77.66%
Implied Free Cash Flow3.616.4111.3920.2335.9463.86113.45201.55358.08636.17
Discount Factor0.950.850.790.740.690.650.600.560.530.49
Present Value of Implied FCF3.415.439.0114.9624.8341.2368.46113.66188.70313.30

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$39.000.88%$-127.04-425.74%
20182018-12-31$17.5011.66%$-39.78-327.31%
20172017-12-31$19.3424.91%$146.63658.19%
20162016-12-31$22.6226.58%$367.111,522.93%
20152015-12-31$19.7617.65%$123.37524.36%
20142014-12-31$36.25-3.00%$49.3336.08%
20132013-12-31$21.20-8.36%$-8.61-140.63%
20122012-12-31$22.85-3.94%$-27.11-218.66%
20112011-12-31$30.201.45%$-14.22-147.09%
20102010-12-31$60.305.75%$115.9292.24%
20092009-12-31$68.56-1.07%$37.63-45.12%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$155.39
Median
$141.19
10th Percentile
$107.92
90th Percentile
$209.08

Fair Value Distribution

$78.75 - $129.66
341
$129.66 - $180.57
473
$180.57 - $231.47
121
$231.47 - $282.38
38
$282.38 - $333.29
14
$333.29 - $384.19
3
$384.19 - $435.10
2
$435.10 - $486.01
1
$486.01 - $536.92
2
$536.92 - $587.82
1
$587.82 - $638.73
1
$638.73 - $689.64
1
$689.64 - $740.54
0
$740.54 - $791.45
0
$791.45 - $842.36
0
$842.36 - $893.26
1
$893.26 - $944.17
0
$944.17 - $995.08
0
$995.08 - $1,045.99
0
$1,045.99 - $1,096.89
0