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TK Group (Holdings) Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.59
5Y Range5.31 – 11.57
5Y Selected8.44
(-) Safety Margin83.61%
5Y Buy Price$1.66
Upside (to Buy Price)-36.05%
10Y Range5.44 – 11.42
10Y Selected8.43
(-) Safety Margin83.61%
10Y Buy Price$1.65
Upside (to Buy Price)-36.12%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0221
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.4575
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0148
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0000
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0554
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.4311
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0609
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3169
Safety Score0.1963

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth-0.10%0.36%0.81%1.27%1.72%2.18%2.63%3.09%3.54%4.00%
Revenue2,355.962,364.372,383.572,413.792,455.382,508.872,574.952,654.492,748.582,858.52
EBITDA393.37394.77397.98403.02409.97418.90429.93443.21458.92477.28
D&A-180.31-180.96-182.43-184.74-187.92-192.02-197.07-203.16-210.36-218.78
EBIT213.05213.81215.55218.28222.04226.88232.86240.05248.56258.50
Pro forma Taxes-30.53-30.64-30.89-31.28-31.82-32.51-33.37-34.40-35.62-37.04
NOPAT182.53183.18184.66187.01190.23194.37199.49205.65212.94221.46
Capital Expenditures-148.10-148.63-149.84-151.74-154.35-157.71-161.87-166.87-172.78-179.69
NWC Investment0.08-0.29-0.66-1.04-1.43-1.84-2.27-2.73-3.23-3.78
(+) D&A180.31180.96182.43184.74187.92192.02197.07203.16210.36218.78
Free Cash Flow214.82215.22216.59218.97222.37226.84232.43239.21247.29256.77
Diluted Shares Outstanding827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00827,785,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.49%Terminal Growth: 2.79%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF213.47209.08197.60187.60178.90171.38164.90159.38154.72150.86
Raw: 6,174.64
4,814.02
Raw: 7,129.72
4,059.51

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value5,800.675,847.41
(-) Net Debt-133.71-133.71
Equity Value5,934.385,981.12
(/) Shares Out827.79827.79
Fair Value$7.17$7.23
(-) Safety Margin83.61%83.61%
Buy Price$1.17$1.18
Current Price$2.59$2.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-54.63%-54.28%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.49%Terminal Growth: 2.29%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF213.27208.18194.92183.33173.21164.38156.70150.04144.30139.39
Raw: 4,372.69
3,285.26
Raw: 5,049.05
2,643.86

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,258.184,371.60
(-) Net Debt-133.71-133.71
Equity Value4,391.894,505.31
(/) Shares Out827.79827.79
Fair Value$5.31$5.44
(-) Safety Margin83.61%83.61%
Buy Price$0.87$0.89
Current Price$2.59$2.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-66.43%-65.56%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.49%Terminal Growth: 3.29%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF213.67209.99200.34192.00184.84178.74173.62169.40166.01163.40
Raw: 10,431.94
8,442.82
Raw: 12,045.53
7,463.48

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value9,443.679,315.50
(-) Net Debt-133.71-133.71
Equity Value9,577.379,449.20
(/) Shares Out827.79827.79
Fair Value$11.57$11.42
(-) Safety Margin83.61%83.61%
Buy Price$1.90$1.87
Current Price$2.59$2.59
Upside (to Buy Price)-26.78%-27.76%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.59
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH77.79%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue7,997.5914,218.8625,279.6144,944.4479,906.41142,065.05252,576.47449,053.96798,369.911,419,416.33
Constant Implied Growth77.79%77.79%77.79%77.79%77.79%77.79%77.79%77.79%77.79%77.79%
Implied Free Cash Flow0.801.422.534.497.9914.2125.2644.9179.84141.94
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF0.771.222.033.405.679.4715.8026.3844.0573.55

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$3.900.96%$4.176.82%
20182018-12-31$4.26-2.15%$4.25-0.33%
20172017-12-31$5.600.35%$5.691.62%
20162016-12-31$2.113.92%$3.3860.07%
20152015-12-31$2.206.49%$3.9780.37%
20142014-12-31$1.6010.50%$-0.55-134.31%
20132013-12-31$1.1512.05%$4.17262.59%
20122012-12-31$1.242.70%$2.3892.03%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$8.04
Median
$7.34
10th Percentile
$5.49
90th Percentile
$11.30

Fair Value Distribution

$4.05 - $6.42
292
$6.42 - $8.78
450
$8.78 - $11.15
153
$11.15 - $13.51
56
$13.51 - $15.88
24
$15.88 - $18.24
10
$18.24 - $20.61
8
$20.61 - $22.98
3
$22.98 - $25.34
0
$25.34 - $27.71
2
$27.71 - $30.07
0
$30.07 - $32.44
1
$32.44 - $34.80
0
$34.80 - $37.17
0
$37.17 - $39.53
0
$39.53 - $41.90
0
$41.90 - $44.26
0
$44.26 - $46.63
0
$46.63 - $48.99
0
$48.99 - $51.36
1