Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $5.17 |
| 5Y Range | 22.34 – 48.67 |
| 5Y Selected | 35.51 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.82% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.59 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 124.16% |
| 10Y Range | 25.74 – 54.89 |
| 10Y Selected | 40.32 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.82% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $13.16 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 154.52% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.9937 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9762 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0147 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7410 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.2618 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6057 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.3474 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0153 |
| Safety Score | 0.3264 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 12.81% | 11.83% | 10.85% | 9.87% | 8.89% | 7.92% | 6.94% | 5.96% | 4.98% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 7,073.72 | 7,910.54 | 8,768.94 | 9,634.65 | 10,491.54 | 11,321.94 | 12,107.26 | 12,828.55 | 13,467.25 | 14,005.94 |
| EBITDA | 237.52 | 265.62 | 294.44 | 323.51 | 352.29 | 380.17 | 406.54 | 430.76 | 452.20 | 470.29 |
| D&A | -55.46 | -62.02 | -68.75 | -75.54 | -82.26 | -88.77 | -94.93 | -100.59 | -105.59 | -109.82 |
| EBIT | 182.06 | 203.60 | 225.69 | 247.97 | 270.02 | 291.40 | 311.61 | 330.17 | 346.61 | 360.48 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -40.80 | -45.63 | -50.58 | -55.57 | -60.51 | -65.30 | -69.83 | -73.99 | -77.68 | -80.78 |
| NOPAT | 141.26 | 157.97 | 175.11 | 192.40 | 209.51 | 226.09 | 241.78 | 256.18 | 268.94 | 279.69 |
| Capital Expenditures | -22.50 | -25.16 | -27.90 | -30.65 | -33.37 | -36.02 | -38.51 | -40.81 | -42.84 | -44.55 |
| NWC Investment | -9.97 | -10.39 | -10.66 | -10.75 | -10.64 | -10.31 | -9.75 | -8.95 | -7.93 | -6.69 |
| (+) D&A | 55.46 | 62.02 | 68.75 | 75.54 | 82.26 | 88.77 | 94.93 | 100.59 | 105.59 | 109.82 |
| Free Cash Flow | 164.25 | 184.44 | 205.32 | 226.55 | 247.76 | 268.54 | 288.44 | 307.00 | 323.76 | 338.27 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 | 203,749,850.25 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 163.16 | 178.86 | 186.23 | 192.20 | 196.61 | 199.32 | 200.25 | 199.36 | 196.64 | 192.17 | Raw: 6,719.29 5,156.76 |
Raw: 9,173.84 5,040.46 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,073.81 | 6,945.25 |
| (-) Net Debt | -102.43 | -102.43 |
| Equity Value | 6,176.24 | 7,047.68 |
| (/) Shares Out | 203.75 | 203.75 |
| Fair Value | $30.31 | $34.59 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.82% | 69.82% |
| Buy Price | $9.15 | $10.44 |
| Current Price | $5.17 | $5.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 76.95% | 101.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.89 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 163.00 | 178.09 | 183.71 | 187.85 | 190.38 | 191.21 | 190.33 | 187.72 | 183.45 | 177.62 | Raw: 4,794.95 3,546.72 |
Raw: 6,546.55 3,309.05 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,449.75 | 5,142.41 |
| (-) Net Debt | -102.43 | -102.43 |
| Equity Value | 4,552.18 | 5,244.84 |
| (/) Shares Out | 203.75 | 203.75 |
| Fair Value | $22.34 | $25.74 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.82% | 69.82% |
| Buy Price | $6.74 | $7.77 |
| Current Price | $5.17 | $5.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 30.42% | 50.27% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.77 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 163.31 | 179.63 | 188.80 | 196.69 | 203.11 | 207.85 | 210.79 | 211.83 | 210.92 | 208.08 | Raw: 11,151.46 8,882.74 |
Raw: 15,225.07 9,100.10 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 9,814.28 | 11,081.13 |
| (-) Net Debt | -102.43 | -102.43 |
| Equity Value | 9,916.71 | 11,183.56 |
| (/) Shares Out | 203.75 | 203.75 |
| Fair Value | $48.67 | $54.89 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 69.82% | 69.82% |
| Buy Price | $14.69 | $16.57 |
| Current Price | $5.17 | $5.17 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 184.12% | 220.41% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 18,755.98 | 28,225.55 | 42,476.15 | 63,921.63 | 96,194.57 | 144,761.55 | 217,849.17 | 327,837.46 | 493,356.97 | 742,444.42 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% | 50.49% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.88 | 2.82 | 4.25 | 6.39 | 9.62 | 14.48 | 21.78 | 32.78 | 49.34 | 74.24 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.79 | 2.39 | 3.37 | 4.74 | 6.68 | 9.40 | 13.23 | 18.62 | 26.22 | 36.90 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $8.67 | 16.83% | $21.14 | 143.78% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $8.60 | 11.89% | $9.88 | 14.87% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $8.16 | 12.69% | $18.90 | 131.65% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $8.77 | 15.11% | $10.30 | 17.41% |
| $17.43 - $25.15 | 88 |
| $25.15 - $32.87 | 326 |
| $32.87 - $40.59 | 300 |
| $40.59 - $48.32 | 131 |
| $48.32 - $56.04 | 64 |
| $56.04 - $63.76 | 39 |
| $63.76 - $71.48 | 17 |
| $71.48 - $79.20 | 10 |
| $79.20 - $86.93 | 8 |
| $86.93 - $94.65 | 7 |
| $94.65 - $102.37 | 2 |
| $102.37 - $110.09 | 1 |
| $110.09 - $117.81 | 0 |
| $117.81 - $125.54 | 1 |
| $125.54 - $133.26 | 3 |
| $133.26 - $140.98 | 1 |
| $140.98 - $148.70 | 0 |
| $148.70 - $156.42 | 1 |
| $156.42 - $164.14 | 0 |
| $164.14 - $171.87 | 1 |