Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.95 |
| 5Y Range | 5.10 – 9.93 |
| 5Y Selected | 7.52 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.40% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $1.35 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -30.73% |
| 10Y Range | 5.30 – 9.94 |
| 10Y Selected | 7.62 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.40% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $1.37 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -29.80% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.1429 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.1903 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0445 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2114 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0523 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.2198 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2559 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0640 |
| Safety Score | 0.1797 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 0.98% | 1.32% | 1.65% | 1.99% | 2.32% | 2.66% | 2.99% | 3.33% | 3.66% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 4,693.62 | 4,755.52 | 4,834.18 | 4,930.33 | 5,044.93 | 5,179.10 | 5,334.19 | 5,511.80 | 5,713.80 | 5,942.35 |
| EBITDA | 165.87 | 168.06 | 170.84 | 174.24 | 178.29 | 183.03 | 188.51 | 194.79 | 201.93 | 210.01 |
| D&A | -8.04 | -8.15 | -8.28 | -8.45 | -8.64 | -8.87 | -9.14 | -9.44 | -9.79 | -10.18 |
| EBIT | 157.83 | 159.91 | 162.56 | 165.79 | 169.65 | 174.16 | 179.37 | 185.35 | 192.14 | 199.82 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -26.56 | -26.91 | -27.36 | -27.90 | -28.55 | -29.31 | -30.19 | -31.19 | -32.34 | -33.63 |
| NOPAT | 131.27 | 133.00 | 135.20 | 137.89 | 141.09 | 144.85 | 149.18 | 154.15 | 159.80 | 166.19 |
| Capital Expenditures | -2.61 | -2.64 | -2.69 | -2.74 | -2.80 | -2.88 | -2.96 | -3.06 | -3.18 | -3.30 |
| NWC Investment | -2.96 | -4.01 | -5.09 | -6.22 | -7.42 | -8.68 | -10.04 | -11.49 | -13.07 | -14.79 |
| (+) D&A | 8.04 | 8.15 | 8.28 | 8.45 | 8.64 | 8.87 | 9.14 | 9.44 | 9.79 | 10.18 |
| Free Cash Flow | 133.74 | 134.50 | 135.71 | 137.37 | 139.52 | 142.16 | 145.32 | 149.04 | 153.34 | 158.28 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 | 473,677,943.50 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | ||
| PV UFCF | 132.91 | 130.70 | 123.91 | 117.86 | 112.47 | 107.68 | 103.43 | 99.67 | 96.35 | 93.45 | Raw: 3,288.63 2,569.79 |
Raw: 3,730.91 2,135.25 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,187.65 | 3,253.69 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.98 | 22.98 |
| Equity Value | 3,164.67 | 3,230.71 |
| (/) Shares Out | 473.68 | 473.68 |
| Fair Value | $6.68 | $6.82 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.40% | 85.40% |
| Buy Price | $0.98 | $1.00 |
| Current Price | $1.95 | $1.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -49.98% | -48.93% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 132.79 | 130.14 | 122.23 | 115.18 | 108.89 | 103.28 | 98.28 | 93.82 | 89.86 | 86.34 | Raw: 2,430.73 1,830.36 |
Raw: 2,757.63 1,451.37 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 2,439.58 | 2,532.18 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.98 | 22.98 |
| Equity Value | 2,416.60 | 2,509.21 |
| (/) Shares Out | 473.68 | 473.68 |
| Fair Value | $5.10 | $5.30 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.40% | 85.40% |
| Buy Price | $0.74 | $0.77 |
| Current Price | $1.95 | $1.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -61.80% | -60.34% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.64 | ||
| PV UFCF | 133.04 | 131.27 | 125.63 | 120.63 | 116.21 | 112.31 | 108.90 | 105.94 | 103.39 | 101.22 | Raw: 5,055.54 4,100.98 |
Raw: 5,735.44 3,572.22 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 4,727.74 | 4,730.74 |
| (-) Net Debt | 22.98 | 22.98 |
| Equity Value | 4,704.77 | 4,707.76 |
| (/) Shares Out | 473.68 | 473.68 |
| Fair Value | $9.93 | $9.94 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.40% | 85.40% |
| Buy Price | $1.45 | $1.45 |
| Current Price | $1.95 | $1.95 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -25.63% | -25.59% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 15,038.24 | 22,785.00 | 34,522.38 | 52,306.13 | 79,250.94 | 120,076.01 | 181,931.57 | 275,651.20 | 417,649.26 | 632,795.73 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% | 51.51% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 1.50 | 2.28 | 3.45 | 5.23 | 7.93 | 12.01 | 18.19 | 27.57 | 41.76 | 63.28 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.71 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 1.44 | 1.95 | 2.78 | 3.96 | 5.64 | 8.03 | 11.43 | 16.27 | 23.17 | 32.99 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $1.50 | -8.24% | $-5.10 | -439.81% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $1.71 | 10.83% | $3.56 | 108.41% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $1.72 | 22.80% | $1.78 | 3.53% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $1.98 | 17.22% | $28.91 | 1,360.16% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $1.80 | -3.00% | $-3.27 | -281.93% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $1.80 | -4.47% | $-1.92 | -206.94% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $1.80 | 2.31% | $-1.81 | -200.31% |
| $4.07 - $4.94 | 59 |
| $4.94 - $5.81 | 188 |
| $5.81 - $6.69 | 216 |
| $6.69 - $7.56 | 205 |
| $7.56 - $8.44 | 125 |
| $8.44 - $9.31 | 77 |
| $9.31 - $10.18 | 43 |
| $10.18 - $11.06 | 35 |
| $11.06 - $11.93 | 23 |
| $11.93 - $12.81 | 12 |
| $12.81 - $13.68 | 4 |
| $13.68 - $14.55 | 2 |
| $14.55 - $15.43 | 2 |
| $15.43 - $16.30 | 2 |
| $16.30 - $17.17 | 1 |
| $17.17 - $18.05 | 0 |
| $18.05 - $18.92 | 2 |
| $18.92 - $19.80 | 0 |
| $19.80 - $20.67 | 2 |
| $20.67 - $21.54 | 2 |