Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $60,900.00 |
| 5Y Range | 1,054,327.81 – 2,337,055.63 |
| 5Y Selected | 1,695,691.72 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.57% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $390,009.10 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 540.41% |
| 10Y Range | 1,322,092.83 – 2,887,305.41 |
| 10Y Selected | 2,104,699.12 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.57% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $484,080.80 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 694.88% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7771 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.8303 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.0200 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.2127 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.1633 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.6576 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.2583 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0074 |
| Safety Score | 0.2300 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 21.94% | 19.95% | 17.96% | 15.96% | 13.97% | 11.98% | 9.98% | 7.99% | 5.99% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 756,033.72 | 906,868.06 | 1,069,713.44 | 1,240,472.40 | 1,413,756.64 | 1,583,059.24 | 1,741,072.75 | 1,880,144.17 | 1,992,837.05 | 2,072,550.53 |
| EBITDA | 297,907.65 | 357,342.43 | 421,510.05 | 488,795.94 | 557,076.89 | 623,788.92 | 686,052.58 | 740,852.31 | 785,257.83 | 816,668.14 |
| D&A | -51,448.27 | -61,712.58 | -72,794.25 | -84,414.44 | -96,206.47 | -107,727.55 | -118,480.41 | -127,944.25 | -135,613.03 | -141,037.55 |
| EBIT | 246,459.38 | 295,629.85 | 348,715.80 | 404,381.50 | 460,870.42 | 516,061.36 | 567,572.17 | 612,908.05 | 649,644.80 | 675,630.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -53,860.91 | -64,606.56 | -76,207.89 | -88,373.00 | -100,718.01 | -112,779.37 | -124,036.47 | -133,944.11 | -141,972.51 | -147,651.41 |
| NOPAT | 192,598.47 | 231,023.29 | 272,507.91 | 316,008.51 | 360,152.41 | 403,282.00 | 443,535.70 | 478,963.94 | 507,672.29 | 527,979.18 |
| Capital Expenditures | -44,937.81 | -53,903.23 | -63,582.58 | -73,732.30 | -84,032.13 | -94,095.28 | -103,487.43 | -111,753.68 | -118,452.02 | -123,190.10 |
| NWC Investment | -9,535.40 | -10,571.42 | -11,413.23 | -11,967.86 | -12,144.85 | -11,865.79 | -11,074.58 | -9,747.00 | -7,898.23 | -5,586.82 |
| (+) D&A | 51,448.27 | 61,712.58 | 72,794.25 | 84,414.44 | 96,206.47 | 107,727.55 | 118,480.41 | 127,944.25 | 135,613.03 | 141,037.55 |
| Free Cash Flow | 189,573.53 | 228,261.23 | 270,306.36 | 314,722.78 | 360,181.90 | 405,048.47 | 447,454.10 | 485,407.51 | 516,935.07 | 540,239.80 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 | 6,005,250.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 11/15/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.45 | 1.45 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/17/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | ||
| PV UFCF | 188,322.67 | 221,561.43 | 245,565.39 | 267,424.05 | 286,446.21 | 301,492.90 | 311,722.02 | 316,500.48 | 315,466.16 | 308,568.98 | Raw: 9,700,040.53 7,463,098.78 |
Raw: 14,549,170.55 8,039,487.65 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 8,672,418.53 | 10,802,557.94 |
| (-) Net Debt | -31.71 | -31.71 |
| Equity Value | 8,672,450.24 | 10,802,589.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6.01 | 6.01 |
| Fair Value | $1,444,144.75 | $1,798,857.61 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.57% | 79.57% |
| Buy Price | $295,038.77 | $367,506.61 |
| Current Price | $60,900.00 | $60,900.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 384.46% | 503.46% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.83 | 0.77 | 0.71 | 0.66 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | ||
| PV UFCF | 188,147.31 | 220,634.55 | 242,270.59 | 261,365.16 | 277,360.41 | 289,222.88 | 296,262.85 | 298,015.09 | 294,286.82 | 285,183.54 | Raw: 6,933,970.26 5,141,692.37 |
Raw: 10,400,319.01 5,286,717.09 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 6,331,470.39 | 7,939,466.29 |
| (-) Net Debt | -31.71 | -31.71 |
| Equity Value | 6,331,502.10 | 7,939,498.00 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6.01 | 6.01 |
| Fair Value | $1,054,327.81 | $1,322,092.83 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.57% | 79.57% |
| Buy Price | $215,399.17 | $270,103.57 |
| Current Price | $60,900.00 | $60,900.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 253.69% | 343.52% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.62 | ||
| PV UFCF | 188,499.84 | 222,500.97 | 248,936.62 | 273,682.37 | 295,919.32 | 314,406.29 | 328,144.78 | 336,322.78 | 338,390.82 | 334,119.59 | Raw: 16,034,774.50 12,805,032.48 |
Raw: 24,050,690.12 14,458,035.73 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 14,034,571.60 | 17,338,959.10 |
| (-) Net Debt | -31.71 | -31.71 |
| Equity Value | 14,034,603.31 | 17,338,990.81 |
| (/) Shares Out | 6.01 | 6.01 |
| Fair Value | $2,337,055.63 | $2,887,305.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 79.57% | 79.57% |
| Buy Price | $477,460.46 | $589,876.50 |
| Current Price | $60,900.00 | $60,900.00 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 684.01% | 868.60% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 949,859.80 | 1,794,669.18 | 3,390,855.66 | 6,406,697.25 | 12,104,841.31 | 22,870,939.19 | 43,212,450.77 | 81,645,790.16 | 154,261,906.76 | 291,463,109.47 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% | 88.94% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 94.99 | 179.47 | 339.09 | 640.67 | 1,210.48 | 2,287.09 | 4,321.25 | 8,164.58 | 15,426.19 | 29,146.31 |
| Discount Factor | 0.95 | 0.85 | 0.80 | 0.74 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.50 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 89.91 | 152.50 | 269.67 | 476.87 | 843.29 | 1,491.25 | 2,637.09 | 4,663.37 | 8,246.57 | 14,583.01 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $68,900.00 | 19.89% | $-54,569.26 | -179.20% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $33,300.00 | 28.22% | $135,059.20 | 305.58% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $44,850.00 | 28.64% | $562,623.15 | 1,154.46% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $64,400.00 | 19.85% | $155,611.60 | 141.63% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $87,900.00 | 8.49% | $140,405.69 | 59.73% |
| $519,587.19 - $1,500,753.50 | 235 |
| $1,500,753.50 - $2,481,919.82 | 590 |
| $2,481,919.82 - $3,463,086.13 | 133 |
| $3,463,086.13 - $4,444,252.45 | 26 |
| $4,444,252.45 - $5,425,418.76 | 9 |
| $5,425,418.76 - $6,406,585.08 | 2 |
| $6,406,585.08 - $7,387,751.39 | 2 |
| $7,387,751.39 - $8,368,917.71 | 0 |
| $8,368,917.71 - $9,350,084.02 | 1 |
| $9,350,084.02 - $10,331,250.33 | 0 |
| $10,331,250.33 - $11,312,416.65 | 1 |
| $11,312,416.65 - $12,293,582.96 | 0 |
| $12,293,582.96 - $13,274,749.28 | 0 |
| $13,274,749.28 - $14,255,915.59 | 0 |
| $14,255,915.59 - $15,237,081.91 | 0 |
| $15,237,081.91 - $16,218,248.22 | 0 |
| $16,218,248.22 - $17,199,414.53 | 0 |
| $17,199,414.53 - $18,180,580.85 | 0 |
| $18,180,580.85 - $19,161,747.16 | 0 |
| $19,161,747.16 - $20,142,913.48 | 1 |