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Best Pacific International Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.30
5Y Range4.49 – 11.60
5Y Selected8.04
(-) Safety Margin80.46%
5Y Buy Price$1.86
Upside (to Buy Price)-43.69%
10Y Range4.93 – 12.33
10Y Selected8.63
(-) Safety Margin80.46%
10Y Buy Price$1.99
Upside (to Buy Price)-39.60%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.4427
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9009
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.5558
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.1113
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7921
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.2280
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0814
FCF R2 (10Y)0.3822
Safety Score0.2310

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth5.67%5.49%5.30%5.11%4.93%4.74%4.56%4.37%4.19%4.00%
Revenue5,348.365,641.775,940.806,244.646,552.436,863.217,175.987,489.687,803.188,115.31
EBITDA928.58979.521,031.441,084.191,137.631,191.591,245.891,300.351,354.781,408.98
D&A-350.38-369.61-389.20-409.10-429.27-449.63-470.12-490.67-511.21-531.66
EBIT578.19609.91642.24675.09708.36741.96775.77809.69843.58877.32
Pro forma Taxes-76.44-80.63-84.90-89.25-93.65-98.09-102.56-107.04-111.52-115.98
NOPAT501.76529.28557.34585.84614.72643.87673.21702.64732.06761.34
Capital Expenditures-631.38-666.01-701.32-737.18-773.52-810.21-847.13-884.16-921.17-958.02
NWC Investment-32.92-33.65-34.29-34.84-35.29-35.64-35.87-35.97-35.95-35.79
(+) D&A350.38369.61389.20409.10429.27449.63470.12490.67511.21531.66
Free Cash Flow187.85199.23210.93222.92235.17247.65260.34273.18286.14299.18
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.001,039,808,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.34%Terminal Growth: 3.06%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.59
PV UFCF186.69193.80192.95191.65190.13188.30186.14183.69180.94177.91
Raw: 7,403.87
5,804.89
Raw: 9,419.20
5,431.68

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value6,760.117,303.87
(-) Net Debt88.6088.60
Equity Value6,671.517,215.27
(/) Shares Out1,039.811,039.81
Fair Value$6.42$6.94
(-) Safety Margin80.46%80.46%
Buy Price$1.25$1.36
Current Price$3.30$3.30
Upside (to Buy Price)-62.01%-58.91%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.34%Terminal Growth: 2.56%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF186.52192.98190.35187.29184.07180.60176.87172.91168.73164.36
Raw: 5,052.74
3,817.37
Raw: 6,428.09
3,408.62

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value4,758.585,213.30
(-) Net Debt88.6088.60
Equity Value4,669.985,124.70
(/) Shares Out1,039.811,039.81
Fair Value$4.49$4.93
(-) Safety Margin80.46%80.46%
Buy Price$0.88$0.96
Current Price$3.30$3.30
Upside (to Buy Price)-73.41%-70.82%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.34%Terminal Growth: 3.56%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.710.680.64
PV UFCF186.87194.62195.61196.15196.45196.40196.00195.25194.15192.71
Raw: 13,731.90
11,176.75
Raw: 17,469.70
10,964.09

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value12,146.4612,908.31
(-) Net Debt88.6088.60
Equity Value12,057.8612,819.71
(/) Shares Out1,039.811,039.81
Fair Value$11.60$12.33
(-) Safety Margin80.46%80.46%
Buy Price$2.27$2.41
Current Price$3.30$3.30
Upside (to Buy Price)-31.34%-27.00%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.30
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH75.48%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue14,951.4426,237.1146,041.4580,794.54141,780.02248,798.66436,597.30766,150.461,344,457.512,359,283.31
Constant Implied Growth75.48%75.48%75.48%75.48%75.48%75.48%75.48%75.48%75.48%75.48%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.502.624.608.0814.1824.8843.6676.62134.45235.93
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.590.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF1.432.263.726.1410.1416.7327.6145.5675.18124.07

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$2.206.09%$-4.82-318.99%
20182018-12-31$1.975.39%$-2.12-207.77%
20172017-12-31$4.889.41%$-17.96-468.06%
20162016-12-31$5.9611.47%$-3.67-161.50%
20152015-12-31$3.709.29%$6.9688.21%
20142014-12-31$4.0613.65%$6.6363.32%
20132013-12-31$2.1211.35%$2.329.62%
20122012-12-31$2.1211.79%$5.69168.43%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$8.26
Median
$6.93
10th Percentile
$4.90
90th Percentile
$12.17

Fair Value Distribution

$3.32 - $6.66
448
$6.66 - $10.01
351
$10.01 - $13.35
127
$13.35 - $16.69
36
$16.69 - $20.04
15
$20.04 - $23.38
7
$23.38 - $26.72
5
$26.72 - $30.07
3
$30.07 - $33.41
2
$33.41 - $36.75
1
$36.75 - $40.10
0
$40.10 - $43.44
0
$43.44 - $46.78
1
$46.78 - $50.12
0
$50.12 - $53.47
1
$53.47 - $56.81
0
$56.81 - $60.15
1
$60.15 - $63.50
1
$63.50 - $66.84
0
$66.84 - $70.18
1