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Man Wah Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$4.38
5Y Range6.80 – 14.10
5Y Selected10.45
(-) Safety Margin67.53%
5Y Buy Price$3.74
Upside (to Buy Price)-14.61%
10Y Range7.39 – 14.86
10Y Selected11.12
(-) Safety Margin67.53%
10Y Buy Price$3.98
Upside (to Buy Price)-9.08%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0281
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7740
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0852
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6681
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.3125
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8811
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3977
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1217
Safety Score0.3580

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035
% Growth4.40%4.35%4.31%4.27%4.22%4.18%4.13%4.09%4.04%4.00%
Revenue17,646.2418,414.7319,208.5220,028.0020,873.5521,745.5422,644.3123,570.1824,523.4525,504.38
EBITDA3,178.813,317.253,460.243,607.863,760.183,917.264,079.174,245.964,417.684,594.38
D&A-525.63-548.53-572.17-596.58-621.77-647.74-674.51-702.09-730.49-759.71
EBIT2,653.182,768.722,888.073,011.283,138.423,269.523,404.663,543.863,687.193,834.68
Pro forma Taxes-458.76-478.74-499.37-520.68-542.66-565.33-588.70-612.77-637.55-663.05
NOPAT2,194.422,289.992,388.702,490.612,595.762,704.192,815.962,931.103,049.643,171.63
Capital Expenditures-1,398.72-1,459.63-1,522.55-1,587.51-1,654.53-1,723.65-1,794.89-1,868.28-1,943.84-2,021.59
NWC Investment-38.69-39.99-41.30-42.64-44.00-45.37-46.77-48.18-49.60-51.04
(+) D&A525.63548.53572.17596.58621.77647.74674.51702.09730.49759.71
Free Cash Flow1,282.641,338.891,397.011,457.041,518.991,582.911,648.821,716.731,786.691,858.70
Diluted Shares Outstanding3,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.753,911,720,488.75

Discounting Periods

MetricMar-26Mar-27Mar-28Mar-29Mar-30Mar-31Mar-32Mar-33Mar-34Mar-35
Period Start3/31/244/1/264/1/274/1/284/1/294/1/304/1/314/1/324/1/334/1/34
Period End3/31/263/31/273/31/283/31/293/31/303/31/313/31/323/31/333/31/343/31/35
Mid-Point3/31/259/30/269/30/279/30/289/30/299/30/309/30/319/30/329/30/339/30/34
Time (t)0.100.701.702.703.704.705.716.717.718.71
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.44%Terminal Growth: 2.39%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.900.840.790.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF1,274.661,281.631,256.321,230.991,205.651,180.331,154.331,129.131,104.011,078.99
Raw: 38,343.53
29,498.41
Raw: 46,918.68
26,399.37

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value35,747.6538,295.40
(-) Net Debt157.38157.38
Equity Value35,590.2638,138.02
(/) Shares Out3,911.723,911.72
Fair Value$9.10$9.75
(-) Safety Margin67.53%67.53%
Buy Price$2.95$3.17
Current Price$4.38$4.38
Upside (to Buy Price)-32.55%-27.72%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.44%Terminal Growth: 1.89%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.950.890.820.770.710.660.620.570.54
PV UFCF1,273.461,273.271,236.511,200.301,164.651,129.581,094.321,060.461,027.22994.59
Raw: 27,855.09
20,604.16
Raw: 34,084.60
17,595.60

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value26,752.3429,049.95
(-) Net Debt157.38157.38
Equity Value26,594.9628,892.57
(/) Shares Out3,911.723,911.72
Fair Value$6.80$7.39
(-) Safety Margin67.53%67.53%
Buy Price$2.21$2.40
Current Price$4.38$4.38
Upside (to Buy Price)-49.60%-45.24%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.44%Terminal Growth: 2.89%
Metric2026202720282029203020312032203320342035TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.960.910.870.820.780.740.700.660.63
PV UFCF1,275.861,290.131,276.641,262.761,248.501,233.881,218.261,202.961,187.351,171.44
Raw: 61,141.87
48,939.83
Raw: 74,815.63
45,919.28

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value55,293.7158,287.05
(-) Net Debt157.38157.38
Equity Value55,136.3358,129.67
(/) Shares Out3,911.723,911.72
Fair Value$14.10$14.86
(-) Safety Margin67.53%67.53%
Buy Price$4.58$4.83
Current Price$4.38$4.38
Upside (to Buy Price)4.49%10.16%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$4.38
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH78.05%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue63,673.23113,367.41201,845.75359,377.59639,856.181,139,236.122,028,360.403,611,407.556,429,954.2111,448,254.04
Constant Implied Growth78.05%78.05%78.05%78.05%78.05%78.05%78.05%78.05%78.05%78.05%
Implied Free Cash Flow6.3711.3420.1835.9463.99113.92202.84361.14643.001,144.83
Discount Factor0.990.900.840.790.750.700.660.620.580.55
Present Value of Implied FCF6.3310.2017.0528.5247.7179.76133.41223.15373.26624.35

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20202020-03-31$4.25-1.10%$6.3950.24%
20192019-03-31$4.788.22%$-0.82-117.21%
20182018-03-31$6.2413.53%$4.60-26.27%
20172017-03-31$6.1718.36%$10.1865.04%
20162016-03-31$4.9116.93%$11.35131.11%
20152015-03-31$3.7314.18%$1.17-68.76%
20142014-03-31$3.2814.31%$4.4635.97%
20132013-03-31$1.8312.08%$1.68-7.98%
20122012-03-31$1.149.99%$-3.56-412.30%
20112011-03-31$2.5212.63%$1.12-55.55%
20102010-03-31$1.6814.17%$4.51168.55%
20092009-03-31$1.6811.54%$1.849.78%
20082008-03-31$1.6815.26%$-0.80-147.76%
20072007-03-31$1.6818.10%$-1.37-181.31%
20062006-03-31$1.6828.52%$0.19-88.75%
20052005-03-31$1.6840.32%$-0.04-102.10%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$10.61
Median
$9.60
10th Percentile
$7.30
90th Percentile
$14.86

Fair Value Distribution

$5.33 - $8.44
294
$8.44 - $11.55
429
$11.55 - $14.66
167
$14.66 - $17.77
63
$17.77 - $20.88
31
$20.88 - $23.99
8
$23.99 - $27.11
3
$27.11 - $30.22
1
$30.22 - $33.33
0
$33.33 - $36.44
1
$36.44 - $39.55
1
$39.55 - $42.66
0
$42.66 - $45.77
0
$45.77 - $48.88
0
$48.88 - $51.99
0
$51.99 - $55.10
0
$55.10 - $58.22
0
$58.22 - $61.33
0
$61.33 - $64.44
0
$64.44 - $67.55
2