Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $1.20 |
| 5Y Range | 3.10 – 5.72 |
| 5Y Selected | 4.41 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.64% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $0.75 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -37.63% |
| 10Y Range | 3.35 – 6.01 |
| 10Y Selected | 4.68 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.64% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $0.79 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -33.86% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.7639 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.3519 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.6688 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.0001 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.5089 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.0961 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0709 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.0570 |
| Safety Score | 0.1697 |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 3.43% | 3.49% | 3.56% | 3.62% | 3.68% | 3.75% | 3.81% | 3.87% | 3.94% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 1,542.52 | 1,596.39 | 1,653.15 | 1,712.98 | 1,776.07 | 1,842.60 | 1,912.79 | 1,986.88 | 2,065.09 | 2,147.69 |
| EBITDA | 62.44 | 64.62 | 66.91 | 69.34 | 71.89 | 74.58 | 77.42 | 80.42 | 83.59 | 86.93 |
| D&A | -8.91 | -9.22 | -9.55 | -9.89 | -10.25 | -10.64 | -11.04 | -11.47 | -11.92 | -12.40 |
| EBIT | 53.53 | 55.40 | 57.37 | 59.44 | 61.63 | 63.94 | 66.38 | 68.95 | 71.66 | 74.53 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -10.31 | -10.67 | -11.05 | -11.45 | -11.87 | -12.31 | -12.78 | -13.28 | -13.80 | -14.35 |
| NOPAT | 43.22 | 44.73 | 46.32 | 48.00 | 49.77 | 51.63 | 53.60 | 55.67 | 57.86 | 60.18 |
| Capital Expenditures | -3.10 | -3.21 | -3.33 | -3.45 | -3.57 | -3.71 | -3.85 | -4.00 | -4.16 | -4.32 |
| NWC Investment | -0.96 | -1.01 | -1.06 | -1.12 | -1.18 | -1.24 | -1.31 | -1.39 | -1.46 | -1.55 |
| (+) D&A | 8.91 | 9.22 | 9.55 | 9.89 | 10.25 | 10.64 | 11.04 | 11.47 | 11.92 | 12.40 |
| Free Cash Flow | 48.07 | 49.73 | 51.48 | 53.32 | 55.27 | 57.32 | 59.48 | 61.76 | 64.17 | 66.71 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 | 290,623,500.00 |
| Metric | Mar-26 | Mar-27 | Mar-28 | Mar-29 | Mar-30 | Mar-31 | Mar-32 | Mar-33 | Mar-34 | Mar-35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 9/30/24 | 4/1/26 | 4/1/27 | 4/1/28 | 4/1/29 | 4/1/30 | 4/1/31 | 4/1/32 | 4/1/33 | 4/1/34 |
| Period End | 3/31/26 | 3/31/27 | 3/31/28 | 3/31/29 | 3/31/30 | 3/31/31 | 3/31/32 | 3/31/33 | 3/31/34 | 3/31/35 |
| Mid-Point | 6/30/25 | 9/30/26 | 9/30/27 | 9/30/28 | 9/30/29 | 9/30/30 | 9/30/31 | 9/30/32 | 9/30/33 | 9/30/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.70 | 1.71 | 2.71 | 3.71 | 4.71 | 5.71 | 6.71 | 7.71 | 8.71 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | ||
| PV UFCF | 47.75 | 47.48 | 45.98 | 44.59 | 43.26 | 42.00 | 40.80 | 39.66 | 38.57 | 37.54 | Raw: 1,214.64 919.88 |
Raw: 1,466.19 798.20 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,148.95 | 1,225.83 |
| (-) Net Debt | -9.89 | -9.89 |
| Equity Value | 1,158.84 | 1,235.72 |
| (/) Shares Out | 290.62 | 290.62 |
| Fair Value | $3.99 | $4.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.64% | 85.64% |
| Buy Price | $0.57 | $0.61 |
| Current Price | $1.20 | $1.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.28% | -49.12% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.88 | 0.82 | 0.76 | 0.70 | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.52 | ||
| PV UFCF | 47.71 | 47.17 | 45.26 | 43.48 | 41.79 | 40.20 | 38.68 | 37.25 | 35.90 | 34.61 | Raw: 913.85 665.46 |
Raw: 1,103.11 551.15 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 890.87 | 963.20 |
| (-) Net Debt | -9.89 | -9.89 |
| Equity Value | 900.76 | 973.09 |
| (/) Shares Out | 290.62 | 290.62 |
| Fair Value | $3.10 | $3.35 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.64% | 85.64% |
| Buy Price | $0.45 | $0.48 |
| Current Price | $1.20 | $1.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -62.91% | -59.93% |
| Metric | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.96 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | 0.61 | ||
| PV UFCF | 47.80 | 47.80 | 46.73 | 45.74 | 44.80 | 43.90 | 43.05 | 42.24 | 41.47 | 40.74 | Raw: 1,801.97 1,419.81 |
Raw: 2,175.17 1,291.32 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 1,652.67 | 1,735.58 |
| (-) Net Debt | -9.89 | -9.89 |
| Equity Value | 1,662.56 | 1,745.47 |
| (/) Shares Out | 290.62 | 290.62 |
| Fair Value | $5.72 | $6.01 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 85.64% | 85.64% |
| Buy Price | $0.82 | $0.86 |
| Current Price | $1.20 | $1.20 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -31.54% | -28.13% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 4,034.93 | 6,377.23 | 10,079.24 | 15,930.30 | 25,177.92 | 39,793.83 | 62,894.37 | 99,404.89 | 157,109.96 | 248,313.13 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% | 58.05% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 0.40 | 0.64 | 1.01 | 1.59 | 2.52 | 3.98 | 6.29 | 9.94 | 15.71 | 24.83 |
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.89 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 0.40 | 0.57 | 0.84 | 1.25 | 1.84 | 2.73 | 4.04 | 5.97 | 8.84 | 13.08 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2020-03-31 | $0.70 | 8.70% | $1.27 | 82.11% |
| 2019 | 2019-03-31 | $0.95 | -1.25% | $2.97 | 213.04% |
| 2018 | 2018-03-31 | $1.44 | -3.18% | $0.77 | -46.79% |
| 2017 | 2017-03-31 | $2.35 | -0.25% | $6.24 | 165.70% |
| 2016 | 2016-03-31 | $4.00 | -2.12% | $-0.45 | -111.22% |
| 2015 | 2015-03-31 | $4.00 | 3.80% | $3.15 | -21.23% |
| 2014 | 2014-03-31 | $4.00 | 3.49% | $4.06 | 1.55% |
| $2.63 - $3.23 | 88 |
| $3.23 - $3.84 | 229 |
| $3.84 - $4.45 | 281 |
| $4.45 - $5.06 | 168 |
| $5.06 - $5.67 | 104 |
| $5.67 - $6.27 | 46 |
| $6.27 - $6.88 | 29 |
| $6.88 - $7.49 | 20 |
| $7.49 - $8.10 | 14 |
| $8.10 - $8.70 | 6 |
| $8.70 - $9.31 | 2 |
| $9.31 - $9.92 | 5 |
| $9.92 - $10.53 | 3 |
| $10.53 - $11.13 | 2 |
| $11.13 - $11.74 | 0 |
| $11.74 - $12.35 | 1 |
| $12.35 - $12.96 | 0 |
| $12.96 - $13.57 | 1 |
| $13.57 - $14.17 | 0 |
| $14.17 - $14.78 | 1 |