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Ten Pao Group Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.05
5Y Range-1.30 – -0.67
5Y Selected-0.99
(-) Safety Margin67.53%
5Y Buy Price$-0.35
Upside (to Buy Price)-117.03%
10Y Range-1.34 – -0.71
10Y Selected-1.03
(-) Safety Margin67.53%
10Y Buy Price$-0.36
Upside (to Buy Price)-117.74%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.0032
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7774
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2481
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6778
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2015
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.7513
FCF R2 (5Y)0.1582
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2386
Safety Score0.3539

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth4.71%4.63%4.55%4.47%4.39%4.31%4.24%4.16%4.08%4.00%
Revenue5,639.155,900.066,168.426,444.156,727.157,017.327,314.507,618.557,929.268,246.43
EBITDA348.18364.29380.86397.89415.36433.28451.63470.40489.58509.17
D&A-141.27-147.81-154.53-161.44-168.53-175.80-183.25-190.86-198.65-206.59
EBIT206.91216.48226.33236.44246.83257.47268.38279.53290.94302.57
Pro forma Taxes-35.73-37.39-39.09-40.83-42.63-44.47-46.35-48.28-50.24-52.25
NOPAT171.18179.10187.24195.61204.20213.01222.03231.26240.69250.32
Capital Expenditures-334.19-349.66-365.56-381.90-398.67-415.87-433.48-451.50-469.91-488.71
NWC Investment-11.30-11.64-11.97-12.30-12.62-12.94-13.26-13.56-13.86-14.15
(+) D&A141.27147.81154.53161.44168.53175.80183.25190.86198.65206.59
Free Cash Flow-33.05-34.39-35.75-37.15-38.56-40.00-41.46-42.94-44.43-45.94
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.501,030,388,990.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.65%Terminal Growth: 2.39%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF-32.83-33.38-32.55-31.70-30.86-30.01-29.16-28.32-27.48-26.64
Raw: -925.59
-717.17
Raw: -1,102.77
-619.15

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-878.49-922.08
(-) Net Debt23.7023.70
Equity Value-902.20-945.79
(/) Shares Out1,030.391,030.39
Fair Value$-0.88$-0.92
(-) Safety Margin67.53%67.53%
Buy Price$-0.28$-0.30
Current Price$2.05$2.05
Upside (to Buy Price)-113.87%-114.54%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.65%Terminal Growth: 1.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF-32.80-33.24-32.10-30.98-29.88-28.79-27.72-26.66-25.63-24.62
Raw: -681.45
-508.85
Raw: -811.90
-419.27

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-667.85-711.69
(-) Net Debt23.7023.70
Equity Value-691.56-735.40
(/) Shares Out1,030.391,030.39
Fair Value$-0.67$-0.71
(-) Safety Margin67.53%67.53%
Buy Price$-0.22$-0.23
Current Price$2.05$2.05
Upside (to Buy Price)-110.63%-111.30%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.65%Terminal Growth: 2.89%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.870.830.780.740.700.660.63
PV UFCF-32.87-33.53-33.00-32.45-31.88-31.30-30.70-30.10-29.48-28.85
Raw: -1,434.54
-1,153.76
Raw: -1,709.16
-1,044.11

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-1,317.48-1,358.25
(-) Net Debt23.7023.70
Equity Value-1,341.18-1,381.96
(/) Shares Out1,030.391,030.39
Fair Value$-1.30$-1.34
(-) Safety Margin67.53%67.53%
Buy Price$-0.42$-0.44
Current Price$2.05$2.05
Upside (to Buy Price)-120.62%-121.24%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.05
WACC Used6.7%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH64.46%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue17,790.9429,258.8448,118.8779,135.92130,146.32214,037.63352,004.63578,904.10952,061.211,565,752.52
Constant Implied Growth64.46%64.46%64.46%64.46%64.46%64.46%64.46%64.46%64.46%64.46%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.782.934.817.9113.0121.4035.2057.8995.21156.58
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.620.580.540.51
Present Value of Implied FCF1.702.503.855.949.1614.1221.7733.5751.7679.81

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$0.94-0.01%$0.86-8.47%
20182018-12-31$0.626.95%$0.36-41.23%
20172017-12-31$1.7516.12%$0.82-52.90%
20162016-12-31$1.4118.36%$2.8299.76%
20152015-12-31$0.5612.94%$-2.25-501.56%
20142014-12-31$1.226.29%$2.1374.37%
20132013-12-31$1.224.54%$0.74-39.43%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-1.01
Median
$-0.93
10th Percentile
$-1.38
90th Percentile
$-0.72

Fair Value Distribution

$-4.08 - $-3.91
1
$-3.91 - $-3.73
0
$-3.73 - $-3.55
0
$-3.55 - $-3.37
1
$-3.37 - $-3.20
0
$-3.20 - $-3.02
0
$-3.02 - $-2.84
0
$-2.84 - $-2.67
1
$-2.67 - $-2.49
3
$-2.49 - $-2.31
2
$-2.31 - $-2.13
4
$-2.13 - $-1.96
9
$-1.96 - $-1.78
9
$-1.78 - $-1.60
16
$-1.60 - $-1.42
34
$-1.42 - $-1.25
76
$-1.25 - $-1.07
144
$-1.07 - $-0.89
256
$-0.89 - $-0.72
347
$-0.72 - $-0.54
96