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CITIC Telecom International Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.54
5Y Range8.47 – 16.53
5Y Selected12.50
(-) Safety Margin79.48%
5Y Buy Price$2.93
Upside (to Buy Price)15.23%
10Y Range9.01 – 17.02
10Y Selected13.01
(-) Safety Margin79.48%
10Y Buy Price$3.05
Upside (to Buy Price)19.99%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.3679
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.6554
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.0075
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.5195
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.2058
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3476
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2699
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1939
Safety Score0.2342

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth1.58%1.85%2.12%2.39%2.66%2.93%3.19%3.46%3.73%4.00%
Revenue9,724.689,904.8510,114.9610,356.6610,631.9410,943.0811,292.6911,683.7812,119.7712,604.56
EBITDA2,533.702,580.642,635.382,698.362,770.082,851.142,942.233,044.133,157.723,284.03
D&A-862.57-878.55-897.18-918.62-943.04-970.64-1,001.65-1,036.34-1,075.01-1,118.01
EBIT1,671.131,702.091,738.201,779.731,827.041,880.511,940.582,007.792,082.712,166.02
Pro forma Taxes-285.14-290.42-296.59-303.67-311.74-320.87-331.12-342.59-355.37-369.58
NOPAT1,385.991,411.671,441.611,476.061,515.301,559.641,609.471,665.211,727.341,796.44
Capital Expenditures-576.25-586.93-599.38-613.70-630.02-648.45-669.17-692.34-718.18-746.91
NWC Investment3.163.754.375.035.736.487.288.149.0810.09
(+) D&A862.57878.55897.18918.62943.04970.641,001.651,036.341,075.011,118.01
Free Cash Flow1,675.461,707.041,743.791,786.011,834.051,888.301,949.222,017.342,093.252,177.63
Diluted Shares Outstanding3,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.503,700,758,845.50

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.66%Terminal Growth: 2.33%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.850.800.750.700.660.620.58
PV UFCF1,664.691,658.201,588.091,523.961,467.201,416.241,370.611,329.901,293.751,261.83
Raw: 43,293.30
33,534.50
Raw: 51,403.65
28,840.53

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value41,436.6443,415.00
(-) Net Debt345.81345.81
Equity Value41,090.8343,069.19
(/) Shares Out3,700.763,700.76
Fair Value$11.10$11.64
(-) Safety Margin79.48%79.48%
Buy Price$2.28$2.39
Current Price$2.54$2.54
Upside (to Buy Price)-10.30%-5.98%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.66%Terminal Growth: 1.83%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.830.770.720.670.620.580.54
PV UFCF1,663.131,651.251,566.751,489.381,420.581,358.501,302.531,252.101,206.751,166.04
Raw: 32,006.66
23,892.56
Raw: 38,002.62
19,611.50

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value31,683.6633,688.51
(-) Net Debt345.81345.81
Equity Value31,337.8533,342.70
(/) Shares Out3,700.763,700.76
Fair Value$8.47$9.01
(-) Safety Margin79.48%79.48%
Buy Price$1.74$1.85
Current Price$2.54$2.54
Upside (to Buy Price)-31.59%-27.21%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.66%Terminal Growth: 2.83%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.870.830.780.740.700.660.63
PV UFCF1,666.261,665.251,609.931,559.691,515.801,477.001,442.951,413.341,387.931,366.50
Raw: 66,523.71
53,486.90
Raw: 78,985.93
48,218.45

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value61,503.8263,323.09
(-) Net Debt345.81345.81
Equity Value61,158.0162,977.28
(/) Shares Out3,700.763,700.76
Fair Value$16.53$17.02
(-) Safety Margin79.48%79.48%
Buy Price$3.39$3.49
Current Price$2.54$2.54
Upside (to Buy Price)33.51%37.48%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.54
WACC Used6.7%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH81.25%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue34,511.8162,552.66113,376.70205,495.26372,460.16675,084.051,223,589.832,217,756.574,019,683.797,285,676.86
Constant Implied Growth81.25%81.25%81.25%81.25%81.25%81.25%81.25%81.25%81.25%81.25%
Implied Free Cash Flow3.456.2611.3420.5537.2567.51122.36221.78401.97728.57
Discount Factor0.960.850.800.750.700.660.620.580.540.51
Present Value of Implied FCF3.305.349.0715.4126.1944.5075.62128.51218.37371.07

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$2.841.66%$7.11150.24%
20182018-12-31$2.752.91%$4.1952.26%
20172017-12-31$2.071.03%$4.0696.00%
20162016-12-31$2.333.17%$4.6197.72%
20152015-12-31$2.962.97%$3.4616.83%
20142014-12-31$2.911.46%$2.41-17.10%
20132013-12-31$2.49-0.13%$0.73-70.78%
20122012-12-31$1.91-0.17%$0.78-59.25%
20112011-12-31$1.4512.09%$1.28-11.90%
20102010-12-31$2.2520.16%$3.1037.57%
20092009-12-31$2.3919.60%$2.7013.08%
20082008-12-31$0.9111.20%$3.53289.20%
20072007-12-31$1.963.36%$2.1610.13%
20062006-12-31$3.9110.55%$2.78-28.98%
20052005-12-31$3.9115.20%$4.5215.54%
20042004-12-31$3.9121.82%$-0.39-109.85%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$12.42
Median
$11.62
10th Percentile
$9.02
90th Percentile
$16.76

Fair Value Distribution

$6.32 - $7.85
13
$7.85 - $9.37
131
$9.37 - $10.90
242
$10.90 - $12.42
223
$12.42 - $13.95
147
$13.95 - $15.47
90
$15.47 - $17.00
64
$17.00 - $18.52
25
$18.52 - $20.05
26
$20.05 - $21.58
12
$21.58 - $23.10
12
$23.10 - $24.63
5
$24.63 - $26.15
5
$26.15 - $27.68
2
$27.68 - $29.20
1
$29.20 - $30.73
0
$30.73 - $32.26
0
$32.26 - $33.78
0
$33.78 - $35.31
0
$35.31 - $36.83
2