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Prinx Chengshan Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$7.88
5Y Range27.90 – 68.42
5Y Selected48.16
(-) Safety Margin71.96%
5Y Buy Price$15.02
Upside (to Buy Price)90.57%
10Y Range33.51 – 80.63
10Y Selected57.07
(-) Safety Margin71.96%
10Y Buy Price$17.79
Upside (to Buy Price)125.82%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9828
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9577
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6162
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6196
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7001
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6379
FCF R2 (5Y)0.7644
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0136
Safety Score0.3118

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth13.26%12.23%11.20%10.17%9.15%8.12%7.09%6.06%5.03%4.00%
Revenue12,429.2613,949.7415,512.6617,091.0518,654.1420,168.2121,597.6122,906.0524,058.0225,020.35
EBITDA2,006.902,252.402,504.762,759.623,012.003,256.473,487.273,698.543,884.544,039.93
D&A-557.54-625.75-695.86-766.66-836.77-904.69-968.81-1,027.50-1,079.18-1,122.35
EBIT1,449.361,626.661,808.911,992.962,175.232,351.782,518.462,671.042,805.372,917.58
Pro forma Taxes-147.88-165.97-184.57-203.35-221.95-239.96-256.97-272.53-286.24-297.69
NOPAT1,301.471,460.681,624.341,789.611,953.282,111.822,261.492,398.502,519.132,619.89
Capital Expenditures-1,163.64-1,305.98-1,452.31-1,600.08-1,746.41-1,888.16-2,021.98-2,144.48-2,252.33-2,342.42
NWC Investment-103.07-107.68-110.69-111.78-110.70-107.23-101.23-92.67-81.58-68.15
(+) D&A557.54625.75695.86766.66836.77904.69968.811,027.501,079.181,122.35
Free Cash Flow592.31672.76757.20844.41932.941,021.121,107.091,188.861,264.391,331.66
Diluted Shares Outstanding637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00637,391,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.54%Terminal Growth: 3.10%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.660.620.59
PV UFCF588.57653.86690.76722.58749.35769.84783.43789.66788.29779.28
Raw: 27,961.97
21,759.20
Raw: 39,912.25
22,628.22

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value25,164.3229,943.83
(-) Net Debt97.0997.09
Equity Value25,067.2329,846.73
(/) Shares Out637.39637.39
Fair Value$39.33$46.83
(-) Safety Margin71.96%71.96%
Buy Price$11.03$13.13
Current Price$7.88$7.88
Upside (to Buy Price)39.94%66.63%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.54%Terminal Growth: 2.60%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF588.02651.12681.46706.17725.51738.42744.47743.41735.22720.05
Raw: 19,376.81
14,530.82
Raw: 27,658.00
14,421.51

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value17,883.1021,455.35
(-) Net Debt97.0997.09
Equity Value17,786.0121,358.26
(/) Shares Out637.39637.39
Fair Value$27.90$33.51
(-) Safety Margin71.96%71.96%
Buy Price$7.82$9.40
Current Price$7.88$7.88
Upside (to Buy Price)-0.71%19.24%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.54%Terminal Growth: 3.60%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.63
PV UFCF589.12656.64700.27739.54774.20802.91824.82839.26845.74844.00
Raw: 49,824.14
40,247.04
Raw: 71,117.81
43,875.26

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value43,706.8251,491.77
(-) Net Debt97.0997.09
Equity Value43,609.7351,394.68
(/) Shares Out637.39637.39
Fair Value$68.42$80.63
(-) Safety Margin71.96%71.96%
Buy Price$19.18$22.61
Current Price$7.88$7.88
Upside (to Buy Price)143.46%186.92%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$7.88
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH66.38%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue37,089.6861,710.49102,675.05170,832.63284,234.47472,914.53786,843.881,309,165.292,178,213.243,624,151.18
Constant Implied Growth66.38%66.38%66.38%66.38%66.38%66.38%66.38%66.38%66.38%66.38%
Implied Free Cash Flow3.716.1710.2717.0828.4247.2978.68130.92217.82362.42
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.750.710.660.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF3.555.288.2512.8820.1131.4149.0676.61119.64186.85

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$7.0613.83%$-29.62-519.60%
20182018-12-31$4.9614.03%$27.45453.44%
20172017-12-31$3.658.32%$1.46-60.09%
20162016-12-31$3.928.91%$22.12464.32%
20152015-12-31$3.6711.38%$25.26588.40%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$58.08
Median
$47.37
10th Percentile
$32.99
90th Percentile
$85.24

Fair Value Distribution

$12.59 - $82.33
893
$82.33 - $152.07
85
$152.07 - $221.82
12
$221.82 - $291.56
2
$291.56 - $361.30
4
$361.30 - $431.05
3
$431.05 - $500.79
0
$500.79 - $570.53
0
$570.53 - $640.27
0
$640.27 - $710.02
0
$710.02 - $779.76
0
$779.76 - $849.50
0
$849.50 - $919.25
0
$919.25 - $988.99
0
$988.99 - $1,058.73
0
$1,058.73 - $1,128.47
0
$1,128.47 - $1,198.22
0
$1,198.22 - $1,267.96
0
$1,267.96 - $1,337.70
0
$1,337.70 - $1,407.45
1