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China Datang Corporation Renewable Power Co., Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.18
5Y Range23.74 – 60.08
5Y Selected41.91
(-) Safety Margin61.32%
5Y Buy Price$17.57
Upside (to Buy Price)705.96%
10Y Range26.67 – 65.39
10Y Selected46.03
(-) Safety Margin61.32%
10Y Buy Price$19.30
Upside (to Buy Price)785.11%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.6744
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9484
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.3316
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8120
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.4174
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8977
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0189
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0374
Safety Score0.4192

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth8.20%7.73%7.26%6.80%6.33%5.86%5.40%4.93%4.47%4.00%
Revenue13,606.5414,658.2115,722.8416,791.5017,854.5218,901.6219,922.0120,904.6221,838.2522,711.78
EBITDA20,186.3521,746.5923,326.0524,911.4926,488.5728,042.0229,555.8531,013.6332,398.7433,694.69
D&A-5,732.01-6,175.04-6,623.54-7,073.73-7,521.55-7,962.66-8,392.52-8,806.46-9,199.77-9,567.76
EBIT14,454.3515,571.5516,702.5117,837.7618,967.0220,079.3621,163.3322,207.1723,198.9724,126.93
Pro forma Taxes-2,223.84-2,395.72-2,569.72-2,744.38-2,918.12-3,089.26-3,256.03-3,416.63-3,569.22-3,711.99
NOPAT12,230.5113,175.8314,132.7915,093.3816,048.9016,990.1017,907.3018,790.5419,629.7620,414.95
Capital Expenditures-10,383.34-11,185.88-11,998.32-12,813.83-13,625.04-14,424.09-15,202.76-15,952.61-16,665.08-17,331.68
NWC Investment-672.55-686.28-694.73-697.36-693.68-683.29-665.86-641.21-609.25-570.03
(+) D&A5,732.016,175.046,623.547,073.737,521.557,962.668,392.528,806.469,199.779,567.76
Free Cash Flow6,906.637,478.718,063.288,655.929,251.739,845.3910,431.1911,003.1911,555.2112,081.00
Diluted Shares Outstanding7,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.007,273,701,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.451.452.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/17/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.49%Terminal Growth: 3.09%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF6,863.347,270.067,360.627,415.407,442.797,437.677,399.967,330.037,228.637,096.97
Raw: 280,758.75
218,872.68
Raw: 366,617.52
208,703.09

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value255,224.89281,548.55
(-) Net Debt8,711.028,711.02
Equity Value246,513.87272,837.53
(/) Shares Out7,273.707,273.70
Fair Value$33.89$37.51
(-) Safety Margin61.32%61.32%
Buy Price$13.11$14.51
Current Price$2.18$2.18
Upside (to Buy Price)501.33%565.55%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.49%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF6,856.937,239.557,261.547,246.847,205.947,133.997,031.796,900.546,741.776,557.40
Raw: 193,818.01
145,605.51
Raw: 253,089.46
132,500.93

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value181,416.30202,677.22
(-) Net Debt8,711.028,711.02
Equity Value172,705.28193,966.20
(/) Shares Out7,273.707,273.70
Fair Value$23.74$26.67
(-) Safety Margin61.32%61.32%
Buy Price$9.18$10.31
Current Price$2.18$2.18
Upside (to Buy Price)321.29%373.15%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.49%Terminal Growth: 3.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF6,869.827,300.997,462.017,589.527,689.777,757.327,791.167,790.687,755.757,686.67
Raw: 505,178.75
408,817.59
Raw: 659,667.36
408,652.90

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value445,729.70484,346.59
(-) Net Debt8,711.028,711.02
Equity Value437,018.68475,635.57
(/) Shares Out7,273.707,273.70
Fair Value$60.08$65.39
(-) Safety Margin61.32%61.32%
Buy Price$23.24$25.29
Current Price$2.18$2.18
Upside (to Buy Price)966.04%1,060.24%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.18
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH94.32%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue44,205.2085,901.20166,926.42324,377.64630,342.741,224,905.532,380,282.124,625,453.008,988,352.8317,466,502.52
Constant Implied Growth94.32%94.32%94.32%94.32%94.32%94.32%94.32%94.32%94.32%94.32%
Implied Free Cash Flow4.428.5916.6932.4463.03122.49238.03462.55898.841,746.65
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF4.237.3613.4324.5144.7281.60148.90271.72495.84904.81

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$0.716.64%$-10.32-1,562.40%
20182018-12-31$0.8211.49%$-5.89-814.20%
20172017-12-31$0.7711.69%$-10.84-1,515.05%
20162016-12-31$0.6411.46%$-13.36-2,202.48%
20152015-12-31$0.8111.23%$1.75115.50%
20142014-12-31$0.8211.60%$-6.45-884.27%
20132013-12-31$1.2811.85%$-5.03-493.26%
20122012-12-31$0.805.75%$-12.19-1,631.64%
20112011-12-31$1.135.55%$-25.30-2,338.53%
20102010-12-31$1.819.28%$-39.39-2,276.35%
20092009-12-31$1.9312.26%$-39.24-2,133.13%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$43.02
Median
$37.20
10th Percentile
$26.63
90th Percentile
$64.04

Fair Value Distribution

$19.25 - $48.77
784
$48.77 - $78.29
173
$78.29 - $107.81
27
$107.81 - $137.33
6
$137.33 - $166.85
5
$166.85 - $196.37
1
$196.37 - $225.89
1
$225.89 - $255.41
1
$255.41 - $284.93
1
$284.93 - $314.44
0
$314.44 - $343.96
0
$343.96 - $373.48
0
$373.48 - $403.00
0
$403.00 - $432.52
0
$432.52 - $462.04
0
$462.04 - $491.56
0
$491.56 - $521.08
0
$521.08 - $550.60
0
$550.60 - $580.12
0
$580.12 - $609.64
1