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S-Enjoy Service Group Co., Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.80
5Y Range53.90 – 135.20
5Y Selected94.55
(-) Safety Margin56.17%
5Y Buy Price$44.63
Upside (to Buy Price)1,493.79%
10Y Range68.59 – 169.41
10Y Selected119.00
(-) Safety Margin56.17%
10Y Buy Price$56.17
Upside (to Buy Price)1,905.99%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9517
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9417
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.2787
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.8530
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.6461
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9162
FCF R2 (5Y)0.3013
FCF R2 (10Y)0.1616
Safety Score0.4720

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033
% Growth27.52%24.91%22.29%19.68%17.07%14.45%11.84%9.23%6.61%4.00%
Revenue6,917.158,640.0910,566.3912,645.9814,804.3616,944.2118,950.5120,699.0822,068.0322,950.75
EBITDA1,381.331,725.392,110.072,525.352,956.373,383.693,784.344,133.534,406.904,583.18
D&A-78.16-97.63-119.40-142.90-167.29-191.47-214.14-233.90-249.37-259.34
EBIT1,303.161,627.761,990.672,382.452,789.093,192.223,570.203,899.634,157.534,323.83
Pro forma Taxes-303.30-378.84-463.31-554.49-649.13-742.95-830.93-907.60-967.62-1,006.32
NOPAT999.871,248.921,527.361,827.972,139.962,449.272,739.282,992.033,189.913,317.51
Capital Expenditures-63.10-78.81-96.38-115.35-135.04-154.56-172.86-188.81-201.30-209.35
NWC Investment41.4947.8853.5357.8059.9959.4755.7648.6038.0524.53
(+) D&A78.1697.63119.40142.90167.29191.47214.14233.90249.37259.34
Free Cash Flow1,056.421,315.621,603.911,913.302,232.192,545.652,836.313,085.713,276.033,392.03
Diluted Shares Outstanding855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75855,032,463.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-24Dec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33
Period Start6/30/241/1/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/33
Period End12/31/2412/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/33
Mid-Point9/30/247/2/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/33
Time (t)0.100.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.43%Terminal Growth: 3.09%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.970.910.860.810.760.710.670.63
PV UFCF1,049.861,307.451,558.621,747.021,915.132,052.212,148.482,196.282,190.962,131.58
Raw: 68,961.39
57,352.44
Raw: 104,793.70
63,834.38

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value64,930.5382,131.99
(-) Net Debt-282.13-282.13
Equity Value65,212.6682,414.11
(/) Shares Out855.03855.03
Fair Value$76.27$96.39
(-) Safety Margin56.17%56.17%
Buy Price$33.43$42.25
Current Price$2.80$2.80
Upside (to Buy Price)1,093.89%1,408.80%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.43%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.59
PV UFCF1,048.881,306.231,551.931,723.331,871.581,986.862,060.712,086.952,062.511,987.93
Raw: 47,344.34
38,299.35
Raw: 71,944.44
40,680.44

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value45,801.2958,367.35
(-) Net Debt-282.13-282.13
Equity Value46,083.4258,649.48
(/) Shares Out855.03855.03
Fair Value$53.90$68.59
(-) Safety Margin56.17%56.17%
Buy Price$23.62$30.06
Current Price$2.80$2.80
Upside (to Buy Price)743.68%973.73%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.43%Terminal Growth: 3.59%
Metric2024202520262027202820292030203120322033TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.990.980.930.880.830.790.750.710.67
PV UFCF1,050.861,308.691,565.401,771.271,960.132,120.352,240.882,312.462,328.742,287.12
Raw: 125,884.29
107,659.80
Raw: 191,293.74
125,619.33

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value115,316.15144,565.22
(-) Net Debt-282.13-282.13
Equity Value115,598.27144,847.35
(/) Shares Out855.03855.03
Fair Value$135.20$169.41
(-) Safety Margin56.17%56.17%
Buy Price$59.26$74.25
Current Price$2.80$2.80
Upside (to Buy Price)2,016.32%2,551.80%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.80
WACC Used6.4%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH62.79%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue17,872.5729,095.2847,365.0877,107.02125,524.80204,345.55332,660.18541,547.39881,601.071,435,184.55
Constant Implied Growth62.79%62.79%62.79%62.79%62.79%62.79%62.79%62.79%62.79%62.79%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.792.914.747.7112.5520.4333.2754.1588.16143.52
Discount Factor0.990.860.810.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF1.772.503.825.848.9313.6720.9031.9848.9174.82

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20182018-12-31$3.3824.33%$14.13317.90%
20172017-12-31$2.5131.40%$13.32430.75%
20162016-12-31$2.6937.67%$7.13165.13%
20152015-12-31$2.5239.98%$7.74207.19%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$130.78
Median
$97.72
10th Percentile
$69.68
90th Percentile
$169.73

Fair Value Distribution

$50.56 - $794.22
996
$794.22 - $1,537.87
2
$1,537.87 - $2,281.53
1
$2,281.53 - $3,025.19
0
$3,025.19 - $3,768.84
0
$3,768.84 - $4,512.50
0
$4,512.50 - $5,256.15
0
$5,256.15 - $5,999.81
0
$5,999.81 - $6,743.47
0
$6,743.47 - $7,487.12
0
$7,487.12 - $8,230.78
0
$8,230.78 - $8,974.43
0
$8,974.43 - $9,718.09
0
$9,718.09 - $10,461.74
0
$10,461.74 - $11,205.40
0
$11,205.40 - $11,949.06
0
$11,949.06 - $12,692.71
0
$12,692.71 - $13,436.37
0
$13,436.37 - $14,180.02
0
$14,180.02 - $14,923.68
1