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Sichuan Energy Investment Development Co., Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$2.49
5Y Range-2.08 – -0.85
5Y Selected-1.46
(-) Safety Margin35.31%
5Y Buy Price$-0.99
Upside (to Buy Price)-139.92%
10Y Range-3.12 – -1.25
10Y Selected-2.19
(-) Safety Margin35.31%
10Y Buy Price$-1.49
Upside (to Buy Price)-159.65%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.8948
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9438
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9453
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.9702
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9336
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.9195
FCF R2 (5Y)0.5948
FCF R2 (10Y)0.5977
Safety Score0.6793

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth11.74%10.88%10.02%9.16%8.30%7.44%6.58%5.72%4.86%4.00%
Revenue5,336.075,916.486,509.167,105.267,694.878,267.268,811.169,315.099,767.7710,158.48
EBITDA722.58801.17881.43962.151,041.991,119.501,193.151,261.391,322.691,375.60
D&A-298.90-331.42-364.62-398.01-431.03-463.10-493.56-521.79-547.15-569.03
EBIT423.67469.76516.82564.14610.96656.40699.59739.60775.54806.56
Pro forma Taxes-64.63-71.66-78.84-86.06-93.20-100.14-106.72-112.83-118.31-123.04
NOPAT359.04398.09437.97478.08517.76556.27592.87626.77657.23683.52
Capital Expenditures-716.84-794.81-874.43-954.51-1,033.72-1,110.61-1,183.68-1,251.38-1,312.19-1,364.68
NWC Investment36.4237.7238.5138.7438.3137.1935.3432.7529.4225.39
(+) D&A298.90331.42364.62398.01431.03463.10493.56521.79547.15569.03
Free Cash Flow-22.47-27.59-33.33-39.69-46.62-54.05-61.91-70.07-78.39-86.73
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.001,074,357,700.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.49%Terminal Growth: 3.09%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.760.710.670.630.59
PV UFCF-22.33-26.80-30.41-34.00-37.50-40.83-43.92-46.68-49.04-50.95
Raw: -1,413.42
-1,101.87
Raw: -2,629.75
-1,497.03

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-1,252.91-1,879.49
(-) Net Debt26.2326.23
Equity Value-1,279.13-1,905.71
(/) Shares Out1,074.361,074.36
Fair Value$-1.19$-1.77
(-) Safety Margin35.31%35.31%
Buy Price$-0.77$-1.15
Current Price$2.49$2.49
Upside (to Buy Price)-130.93%-146.08%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.49%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF-22.31-26.68-29.99-33.23-36.31-39.17-41.73-43.94-45.74-47.08
Raw: -975.99
-733.21
Raw: -1,815.88
-950.67

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-881.74-1,316.86
(-) Net Debt26.2326.23
Equity Value-907.96-1,343.08
(/) Shares Out1,074.361,074.36
Fair Value$-0.85$-1.25
(-) Safety Margin35.31%35.31%
Buy Price$-0.55$-0.81
Current Price$2.49$2.49
Upside (to Buy Price)-121.96%-132.48%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.49%Terminal Growth: 3.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.64
PV UFCF-22.35-26.92-30.83-34.80-38.75-42.59-46.24-49.61-52.62-55.18
Raw: -2,541.52
-2,056.73
Raw: -4,728.63
-2,929.31

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value-2,210.37-3,329.19
(-) Net Debt26.2326.23
Equity Value-2,236.60-3,355.42
(/) Shares Out1,074.361,074.36
Fair Value$-2.08$-3.12
(-) Safety Margin35.31%35.31%
Buy Price$-1.35$-2.02
Current Price$2.49$2.49
Upside (to Buy Price)-154.09%-181.14%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$2.49
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH69.59%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue16,304.3627,649.9546,890.4979,519.79134,854.58228,694.73387,834.67657,714.001,115,392.061,891,550.81
Constant Implied Growth69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%69.59%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.632.764.697.9513.4922.8738.7865.77111.54189.16
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.760.710.670.630.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF1.562.373.776.019.5715.2424.2638.6461.5397.99

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.7211.84%$6.59283.10%
20182018-12-31$1.5511.31%$6.05290.23%
20172017-12-31$1.476.57%$6.51343.05%
20162016-12-31$1.586.12%$6.58316.20%
20152015-12-31$1.485.87%$2.1042.05%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$-2.11
Median
$-1.80
10th Percentile
$-3.04
90th Percentile
$-1.27

Fair Value Distribution

$-46.46 - $-44.16
1
$-44.16 - $-41.86
0
$-41.86 - $-39.56
0
$-39.56 - $-37.26
0
$-37.26 - $-34.95
0
$-34.95 - $-32.65
0
$-32.65 - $-30.35
0
$-30.35 - $-28.05
0
$-28.05 - $-25.75
0
$-25.75 - $-23.44
1
$-23.44 - $-21.14
0
$-21.14 - $-18.84
0
$-18.84 - $-16.54
0
$-16.54 - $-14.24
0
$-14.24 - $-11.93
1
$-11.93 - $-9.63
0
$-9.63 - $-7.33
5
$-7.33 - $-5.03
12
$-5.03 - $-2.73
124
$-2.73 - $-0.42
856