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Consun Pharmaceutical Group Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$14.88
5Y Range24.29 – 58.28
5Y Selected41.29
(-) Safety Margin45.09%
5Y Buy Price$23.98
Upside (to Buy Price)61.13%
10Y Range27.12 – 63.29
10Y Selected45.21
(-) Safety Margin45.09%
10Y Buy Price$26.25
Upside (to Buy Price)76.42%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9962
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9214
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.9953
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.6935
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.9784
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.8652
FCF R2 (5Y)0.2971
FCF R2 (10Y)0.7134
Safety Score0.5807

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth11.55%10.71%9.87%9.03%8.19%7.35%6.52%5.68%4.84%4.00%
Revenue3,309.823,664.214,025.834,389.384,748.965,098.185,430.345,738.616,016.276,256.92
EBITDA981.431,086.521,193.741,301.541,408.171,511.721,610.211,701.621,783.951,855.31
D&A-109.23-120.92-132.86-144.85-156.72-168.24-179.21-189.38-198.54-206.48
EBIT872.20965.591,060.891,156.691,251.451,343.471,431.001,512.241,585.411,648.82
Pro forma Taxes-134.75-149.18-163.90-178.70-193.34-207.56-221.08-233.63-244.93-254.73
NOPAT737.46816.42896.99977.991,058.111,135.921,209.921,278.611,340.471,394.09
Capital Expenditures-144.81-160.32-176.14-192.04-207.78-223.06-237.59-251.08-263.22-273.75
NWC Investment20.7921.5121.9422.0621.8221.1920.1618.7116.8514.60
(+) D&A109.23120.92132.86144.85156.72168.24179.21189.38198.54206.48
Free Cash Flow722.66798.53875.65952.861,028.871,102.301,171.701,235.621,292.641,341.43
Diluted Shares Outstanding830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00830,668,250.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.53%Terminal Growth: 3.08%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.660.620.59
PV UFCF718.11775.63798.42815.57826.66831.38829.57821.21806.46785.61
Raw: 30,715.76
23,910.88
Raw: 40,046.74
22,723.29

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value27,845.2830,731.91
(-) Net Debt-317.49-317.49
Equity Value28,162.7631,049.39
(/) Shares Out830.67830.67
Fair Value$33.90$37.38
(-) Safety Margin45.09%45.09%
Buy Price$18.62$20.52
Current Price$14.88$14.88
Upside (to Buy Price)25.11%37.93%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.53%Terminal Growth: 2.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF717.44772.31787.60797.04800.37797.45788.31773.11752.16725.90
Raw: 21,309.13
15,985.69
Raw: 27,782.53
14,498.33

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value19,860.4422,210.01
(-) Net Debt-317.49-317.49
Equity Value20,177.9322,527.50
(/) Shares Out830.67830.67
Fair Value$24.29$27.12
(-) Safety Margin45.09%45.09%
Buy Price$13.34$14.89
Current Price$14.88$14.88
Upside (to Buy Price)-10.36%0.08%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.53%Terminal Growth: 3.58%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.63
PV UFCF718.78779.01809.49834.72854.09867.10873.41872.80865.24850.86
Raw: 54,574.18
44,100.34
Raw: 71,152.99
43,933.69

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value48,096.4252,259.18
(-) Net Debt-317.49-317.49
Equity Value48,413.9052,576.67
(/) Shares Out830.67830.67
Fair Value$58.28$63.29
(-) Safety Margin45.09%45.09%
Buy Price$32.00$34.75
Current Price$14.88$14.88
Upside (to Buy Price)115.08%133.57%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$14.88
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH107.14%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue12,441.4325,771.3253,383.00110,578.14229,052.79474,462.50982,806.902,035,797.164,216,972.908,735,084.61
Constant Implied Growth107.14%107.14%107.14%107.14%107.14%107.14%107.14%107.14%107.14%107.14%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.242.585.3411.0622.9147.4598.28203.58421.70873.51
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.750.710.660.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF1.192.214.298.3416.2231.5361.32119.23231.83450.79

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$4.1412.81%$7.2073.86%
20182018-12-31$3.9912.48%$17.81346.48%
20172017-12-31$6.058.58%$5.48-9.49%
20162016-12-31$3.455.54%$9.17165.73%
20152015-12-31$4.2610.94%$4.587.54%
20142014-12-31$4.6722.81%$11.38143.62%
20132013-12-31$3.7829.85%$7.73104.58%
20122012-12-31$3.9424.35%$3.81-3.36%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$43.05
Median
$37.57
10th Percentile
$26.84
90th Percentile
$62.03

Fair Value Distribution

$18.89 - $44.80
695
$44.80 - $70.71
240
$70.71 - $96.62
44
$96.62 - $122.53
12
$122.53 - $148.44
2
$148.44 - $174.35
2
$174.35 - $200.26
2
$200.26 - $226.18
0
$226.18 - $252.09
2
$252.09 - $278.00
0
$278.00 - $303.91
0
$303.91 - $329.82
0
$329.82 - $355.73
0
$355.73 - $381.64
0
$381.64 - $407.55
0
$407.55 - $433.47
0
$433.47 - $459.38
0
$459.38 - $485.29
0
$485.29 - $511.20
0
$511.20 - $537.11
1