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Tong Ren Tang Technologies Co. Ltd.

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$4.57
5Y Range12.30 – 30.95
5Y Selected21.62
(-) Safety Margin83.70%
5Y Buy Price$4.31
Upside (to Buy Price)-5.60%
10Y Range15.05 – 37.40
10Y Selected26.23
(-) Safety Margin83.70%
10Y Buy Price$5.23
Upside (to Buy Price)14.50%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9945
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.7645
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.3384
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.0584
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.0284
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.3567
FCF R2 (5Y)0.0341
FCF R2 (10Y)0.0093
Safety Score0.1995

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.97%9.31%8.64%7.98%7.32%6.65%5.99%5.33%4.66%4.00%
Revenue7,983.518,726.589,480.9210,237.5610,986.6611,717.6912,419.6313,081.2113,691.2414,238.89
EBITDA1,332.341,456.351,582.241,708.511,833.531,955.532,072.672,183.082,284.882,376.28
D&A-229.55-250.92-272.61-294.36-315.90-336.92-357.10-376.13-393.67-409.41
EBIT1,102.791,205.431,309.631,414.151,517.631,618.611,715.571,806.951,891.221,966.87
Pro forma Taxes-186.08-203.40-220.99-238.62-256.08-273.12-289.48-304.91-319.12-331.89
NOPAT916.701,002.031,088.641,175.531,261.541,345.481,426.081,502.051,572.091,634.98
Capital Expenditures-407.94-445.91-484.45-523.12-561.39-598.75-634.61-668.42-699.59-727.57
NWC Investment-221.99-227.88-231.33-232.04-229.73-224.19-215.26-202.89-187.08-167.95
(+) D&A229.55250.92272.61294.36315.90336.92357.10376.13393.67409.41
Free Cash Flow516.33579.16645.46714.73786.32859.47933.311,006.871,079.091,148.87
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.001,280,784,000.00

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.30%Terminal Growth: 2.98%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.810.760.720.670.630.60
PV UFCF513.18563.11590.40615.02636.53654.52668.64678.60684.18685.27
Raw: 24,386.29
19,147.06
Raw: 35,630.08
20,613.06

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value22,065.3026,902.50
(-) Net Debt-238.40-238.40
Equity Value22,303.7027,140.90
(/) Shares Out1,280.781,280.78
Fair Value$17.41$21.19
(-) Safety Margin83.70%83.70%
Buy Price$2.84$3.45
Current Price$4.57$4.57
Upside (to Buy Price)-37.89%-24.42%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.30%Terminal Growth: 2.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.730.680.630.590.55
PV UFCF512.70560.69582.38601.01616.24627.75635.31638.77638.02633.08
Raw: 16,716.34
12,647.20
Raw: 24,423.75
12,992.77

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value15,520.2219,038.73
(-) Net Debt-238.40-238.40
Equity Value15,758.6219,277.13
(/) Shares Out1,280.781,280.78
Fair Value$12.30$15.05
(-) Safety Margin83.70%83.70%
Buy Price$2.01$2.45
Current Price$4.57$4.57
Upside (to Buy Price)-56.12%-46.32%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.30%Terminal Growth: 3.48%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.930.880.840.790.750.720.680.65
PV UFCF513.67565.56598.60629.49657.69682.70704.05721.32734.17742.31
Raw: 44,695.90
36,431.72
Raw: 65,303.84
41,119.21

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value39,396.7347,668.78
(-) Net Debt-238.40-238.40
Equity Value39,635.1347,907.17
(/) Shares Out1,280.781,280.78
Fair Value$30.95$37.40
(-) Safety Margin83.70%83.70%
Buy Price$5.04$6.10
Current Price$4.57$4.57
Upside (to Buy Price)10.38%33.41%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$4.57
WACC Used6.3%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH74.84%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue24,172.1542,262.9173,893.02129,195.52225,887.14394,944.03690,525.311,207,323.492,110,900.203,690,725.53
Constant Implied Growth74.84%74.84%74.84%74.84%74.84%74.84%74.84%74.84%74.84%74.84%
Implied Free Cash Flow2.424.237.3912.9222.5939.4969.05120.73211.09369.07
Discount Factor0.960.860.810.760.720.670.630.600.560.53
Present Value of Implied FCF2.323.645.989.8416.1826.6243.7872.01118.45194.83

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$6.8411.36%$17.25152.15%
20182018-12-31$9.0010.91%$12.3937.69%
20172017-12-31$9.345.26%$4.66-50.06%
20162016-12-31$12.870.50%$0.65-94.95%
20152015-12-31$10.65-1.41%$2.50-76.55%
20142014-12-31$8.002.73%$2.25-71.83%
20132013-12-31$9.6610.42%$5.10-47.22%
20122012-12-31$6.8813.11%$6.87-0.15%
20112011-12-31$3.4413.97%$2.51-27.04%
20102010-12-31$3.3615.39%$5.4963.51%
20092009-12-31$2.0517.08%$6.06195.79%
20082008-12-31$0.9219.82%$2.99223.84%
20072007-12-31$2.2717.99%$-1.38-160.71%
20062006-12-31$2.1412.36%$1.47-31.39%
20052005-12-31$2.327.99%$0.68-70.72%
20042004-12-31$3.022.38%$0.33-89.24%
20032003-12-31$2.422.60%$0.63-73.81%
20022002-12-31$1.475.53%$-0.04-102.45%
20012001-12-31$0.8411.59%$3.29290.15%
20002000-12-31$0.5720.38%$3.48513.82%
19991999-12-31$0.7618.92%$4.23455.15%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$25.75
Median
$21.44
10th Percentile
$15.02
90th Percentile
$39.44

Fair Value Distribution

$10.30 - $50.57
959
$50.57 - $90.83
37
$90.83 - $131.09
2
$131.09 - $171.36
1
$171.36 - $211.62
0
$211.62 - $251.89
0
$251.89 - $292.15
0
$292.15 - $332.41
0
$332.41 - $372.68
0
$372.68 - $412.94
0
$412.94 - $453.20
0
$453.20 - $493.47
0
$493.47 - $533.73
0
$533.73 - $573.99
0
$573.99 - $614.26
0
$614.26 - $654.52
0
$654.52 - $694.78
0
$694.78 - $735.05
0
$735.05 - $775.31
0
$775.31 - $815.58
1