Definitive Analysis
| Current Price | $12.31 |
| 5Y Range | 12.75 – 32.65 |
| 5Y Selected | 22.70 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.00% |
| 5Y Buy Price | $11.26 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -8.50% |
| 10Y Range | 13.80 – 34.25 |
| 10Y Selected | 24.02 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.00% |
| 10Y Buy Price | $11.92 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -3.17% |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Revenue R2 (5Y) | 0.8841 |
| Revenue R2 (10Y) | 0.9281 |
| Net Income R2 (5Y) | 0.2314 |
| Net Income R2 (10Y) | 0.7469 |
| EBITDA R2 (5Y) | 0.0045 |
| EBITDA R2 (10Y) | 0.7961 |
| FCF R2 (5Y) | 0.0002 |
| FCF R2 (10Y) | 0.4699 |
| Safety Score | 0.4962 |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Growth | 6.89% | 6.57% | 6.25% | 5.93% | 5.61% | 5.29% | 4.96% | 4.64% | 4.32% | 4.00% |
| Revenue | 6,990.28 | 7,449.60 | 7,915.16 | 8,384.38 | 8,854.47 | 9,322.46 | 9,785.23 | 10,239.53 | 10,682.02 | 11,109.30 |
| EBITDA | 1,235.42 | 1,316.60 | 1,398.88 | 1,481.81 | 1,564.89 | 1,647.60 | 1,729.39 | 1,809.68 | 1,887.88 | 1,963.39 |
| D&A | -114.40 | -121.91 | -129.53 | -137.21 | -144.90 | -152.56 | -160.14 | -167.57 | -174.81 | -181.80 |
| EBIT | 1,121.03 | 1,194.69 | 1,269.35 | 1,344.60 | 1,419.98 | 1,495.04 | 1,569.25 | 1,642.11 | 1,713.07 | 1,781.59 |
| Pro forma Taxes | -314.09 | -334.73 | -355.65 | -376.74 | -397.86 | -418.89 | -439.68 | -460.09 | -479.98 | -499.17 |
| NOPAT | 806.93 | 859.95 | 913.70 | 967.86 | 1,022.13 | 1,076.15 | 1,129.57 | 1,182.01 | 1,233.09 | 1,282.41 |
| Capital Expenditures | -452.24 | -481.96 | -512.08 | -542.43 | -572.84 | -603.12 | -633.06 | -662.45 | -691.08 | -718.72 |
| NWC Investment | -0.18 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.19 | -0.18 | -0.18 | -0.17 |
| (+) D&A | 114.40 | 121.91 | 129.53 | 137.21 | 144.90 | 152.56 | 160.14 | 167.57 | 174.81 | 181.80 |
| Free Cash Flow | 468.91 | 499.72 | 530.96 | 562.45 | 593.99 | 625.40 | 656.46 | 686.95 | 716.64 | 745.32 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 | 970,172,000.00 |
| Metric | Dec-25 | Dec-26 | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Dec-32 | Dec-33 | Dec-34 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period Start | 6/30/25 | 1/1/26 | 1/1/27 | 1/1/28 | 1/1/29 | 1/1/30 | 1/1/31 | 1/1/32 | 1/1/33 | 1/1/34 |
| Period End | 12/31/25 | 12/31/26 | 12/31/27 | 12/31/28 | 12/31/29 | 12/31/30 | 12/31/31 | 12/31/32 | 12/31/33 | 12/31/34 |
| Mid-Point | 9/30/25 | 7/2/26 | 7/2/27 | 7/1/28 | 7/2/29 | 7/2/30 | 7/2/31 | 7/1/32 | 7/2/33 | 7/2/34 |
| Time (t) | 0.10 | 0.46 | 1.46 | 2.46 | 3.46 | 4.46 | 5.46 | 6.46 | 7.46 | 8.46 |
| Valuation Date | 1/16/26 | |||||||||
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.91 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | ||
| PV UFCF | 466.05 | 485.86 | 485.59 | 483.86 | 480.67 | 476.04 | 470.03 | 462.67 | 454.02 | 444.17 | Raw: 18,959.50 14,879.93 |
Raw: 23,789.72 13,750.00 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 17,281.95 | 18,458.93 |
| (-) Net Debt | -255.01 | -255.01 |
| Equity Value | 17,536.95 | 18,713.94 |
| (/) Shares Out | 970.17 | 970.17 |
| Fair Value | $18.08 | $19.29 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.00% | 54.00% |
| Buy Price | $8.32 | $8.87 |
| Current Price | $12.31 | $12.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -32.45% | -27.92% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.90 | 0.84 | 0.78 | 0.73 | 0.68 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.55 | ||
| PV UFCF | 465.61 | 483.77 | 479.00 | 472.84 | 465.34 | 456.57 | 446.60 | 435.51 | 423.39 | 410.34 | Raw: 12,883.49 9,743.30 |
Raw: 16,165.76 8,591.66 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,109.86 | 13,130.64 |
| (-) Net Debt | -255.01 | -255.01 |
| Equity Value | 12,364.87 | 13,385.65 |
| (/) Shares Out | 970.17 | 970.17 |
| Fair Value | $12.75 | $13.80 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.00% | 54.00% |
| Buy Price | $5.86 | $6.35 |
| Current Price | $12.31 | $12.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | -52.37% | -48.44% |
| Metric | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | TV (5y) | TV (10y) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Discount Factor | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 0.84 | 0.79 | 0.75 | 0.72 | 0.68 | 0.65 | ||
| PV UFCF | 466.49 | 487.97 | 492.34 | 495.24 | 496.64 | 496.54 | 494.92 | 491.79 | 487.19 | 481.14 | Raw: 35,575.19 28,985.14 |
Raw: 44,638.52 28,080.16 |
| 5-Year Horizon | 10-Year Horizon | |
|---|---|---|
| UFCF | UFCF | |
| Enterprise Value | 31,423.81 | 32,970.41 |
| (-) Net Debt | -255.01 | -255.01 |
| Equity Value | 31,678.82 | 33,225.41 |
| (/) Shares Out | 970.17 | 970.17 |
| Fair Value | $32.65 | $34.25 |
| (-) Safety Margin | 54.00% | 54.00% |
| Buy Price | $15.02 | $15.75 |
| Current Price | $12.31 | $12.31 |
| Upside (to Buy Price) | 22.02% | 27.97% |
| Metric | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Implied Revenue | 24,659.02 | 46,780.50 | 88,747.03 | 168,361.53 | 319,397.77 | 605,927.82 | 1,149,502.47 | 2,180,715.07 | 4,137,023.06 | 7,848,324.63 |
| Constant Implied Growth | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% | 89.71% |
| Implied Free Cash Flow | 2.47 | 4.68 | 8.87 | 16.84 | 31.94 | 60.59 | 114.95 | 218.07 | 413.70 | 784.83 |
| Discount Factor | 0.96 | 0.86 | 0.81 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.60 | 0.56 | 0.53 |
| Present Value of Implied FCF | 2.36 | 4.02 | 7.18 | 12.82 | 22.87 | 40.81 | 72.83 | 129.96 | 231.91 | 413.84 |
| Year | Valuation Date | Actual Price | Realized Growth (5Y) | Calculated Fair Value | Valuation Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 2019-12-31 | $40.82 | 4.58% | $14.17 | -65.29% |
| 2018 | 2018-12-31 | $16.80 | 8.51% | $2.92 | -82.65% |
| 2017 | 2017-12-31 | $6.63 | 19.55% | $9.04 | 36.31% |
| 2016 | 2016-12-31 | $2.93 | 32.27% | $15.03 | 413.10% |
| 2015 | 2015-12-31 | $2.72 | 37.32% | $7.85 | 188.70% |
| 2014 | 2014-12-31 | $2.60 | 28.70% | $1.64 | -36.82% |
| 2013 | 2013-12-31 | $2.54 | 36.32% | $-1.39 | -154.55% |
| $9.86 - $22.62 | 667 |
| $22.62 - $35.38 | 268 |
| $35.38 - $48.13 | 35 |
| $48.13 - $60.89 | 10 |
| $60.89 - $73.65 | 10 |
| $73.65 - $86.40 | 3 |
| $86.40 - $99.16 | 1 |
| $99.16 - $111.91 | 2 |
| $111.91 - $124.67 | 1 |
| $124.67 - $137.43 | 0 |
| $137.43 - $150.18 | 0 |
| $150.18 - $162.94 | 1 |
| $162.94 - $175.70 | 0 |
| $175.70 - $188.45 | 0 |
| $188.45 - $201.21 | 0 |
| $201.21 - $213.97 | 0 |
| $213.97 - $226.72 | 1 |
| $226.72 - $239.48 | 0 |
| $239.48 - $252.23 | 0 |
| $252.23 - $264.99 | 1 |