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Xin Point Holdings Limited

Intrinsic Value Analysis (Discounted Cash Flow)Industry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Fair Value Summary

Current Price$3.81
5Y Range10.12 – 24.36
5Y Selected17.24
(-) Safety Margin70.79%
5Y Buy Price$5.58
Upside (to Buy Price)46.40%
10Y Range11.41 – 26.76
10Y Selected19.09
(-) Safety Margin70.79%
10Y Buy Price$6.17
Upside (to Buy Price)62.05%

Company Predictability & Safety

MetricValue
Revenue R2 (5Y)0.9404
Revenue R2 (10Y)0.9439
Net Income R2 (5Y)0.6954
Net Income R2 (10Y)0.4245
EBITDA R2 (5Y)0.7089
EBITDA R2 (10Y)0.6357
FCF R2 (5Y)0.4529
FCF R2 (10Y)0.2858
Safety Score0.3235

DA 10-Year Projection

Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034
% Growth9.41%8.81%8.21%7.61%7.01%6.41%5.80%5.20%4.60%4.00%
Revenue3,509.613,818.884,132.444,446.884,758.505,063.335,357.245,635.985,895.326,131.13
EBITDA985.371,072.201,160.241,248.521,336.011,421.601,504.121,582.381,655.191,721.40
D&A-224.42-244.20-264.25-284.36-304.28-323.77-342.57-360.39-376.98-392.05
EBIT760.95828.01895.99964.171,031.731,097.831,161.551,221.991,278.221,329.34
Pro forma Taxes-141.46-153.92-166.56-179.23-191.79-204.08-215.93-227.16-237.61-247.12
NOPAT619.49674.08729.43784.93839.94893.74945.62994.821,040.601,082.23
Capital Expenditures-436.77-475.26-514.28-553.42-592.20-630.13-666.71-701.40-733.67-763.02
NWC Investment-31.79-32.56-33.01-33.11-32.81-32.10-30.94-29.35-27.31-24.83
(+) D&A224.42244.20264.25284.36304.28323.77342.57360.39376.98392.05
Free Cash Flow375.35410.46446.38482.76519.21555.29590.54624.47656.60686.43
Diluted Shares Outstanding1,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.751,003,310,599.75

Discounting Periods

MetricDec-25Dec-26Dec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Dec-32Dec-33Dec-34
Period Start6/30/251/1/261/1/271/1/281/1/291/1/301/1/311/1/321/1/331/1/34
Period End12/31/2512/31/2612/31/2712/31/2812/31/2912/31/3012/31/3112/31/3212/31/3312/31/34
Mid-Point9/30/257/2/267/2/277/1/287/2/297/2/307/2/317/1/327/2/337/2/34
Time (t)0.100.461.462.463.464.465.466.467.468.46
Valuation Date1/16/26

Base Case Projected Flows

WACC: 6.54%Terminal Growth: 3.09%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.910.860.800.750.710.660.620.59
PV UFCF372.98398.67406.95413.11417.04418.64417.89414.78409.36401.69
Raw: 15,521.49
12,078.38
Raw: 20,520.34
11,633.99

Base Case Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value14,087.1415,705.11
(-) Net Debt-105.35-105.35
Equity Value14,192.4815,810.45
(/) Shares Out1,003.311,003.31
Fair Value$14.15$15.76
(-) Safety Margin70.79%70.79%
Buy Price$4.13$4.60
Current Price$3.81$3.81
Upside (to Buy Price)8.45%20.81%

Conservative Projected Flows

WACC: 7.54%Terminal Growth: 2.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.970.900.840.780.720.670.630.580.54
PV UFCF372.63396.96401.44403.73403.77401.56397.11390.49381.80371.17
Raw: 10,764.10
8,072.09
Raw: 14,230.79
7,420.25

Conservative Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value10,050.6211,340.90
(-) Net Debt-105.35-105.35
Equity Value10,155.9611,446.25
(/) Shares Out1,003.311,003.31
Fair Value$10.12$11.41
(-) Safety Margin70.79%70.79%
Buy Price$2.96$3.33
Current Price$3.81$3.81
Upside (to Buy Price)-22.39%-12.53%

Aggressive Projected Flows

WACC: 5.54%Terminal Growth: 3.59%
Metric2025202620272028202920302031203220332034TV (5y)TV (10y)
Discount Factor0.990.980.920.880.830.790.750.710.670.63
PV UFCF373.33400.40412.60422.81430.87436.62439.97440.84439.19435.05
Raw: 27,603.66
22,297.74
Raw: 36,493.70
22,514.34

Aggressive Valuation

5-Year Horizon10-Year Horizon
UFCFUFCF
Enterprise Value24,337.7526,746.02
(-) Net Debt-105.35-105.35
Equity Value24,443.1026,851.37
(/) Shares Out1,003.311,003.31
Fair Value$24.36$26.76
(-) Safety Margin70.79%70.79%
Buy Price$7.12$7.82
Current Price$3.81$3.81
Upside (to Buy Price)86.78%105.18%

Reverse DCF: Market Implied Growth

Current Price$3.81
WACC Used6.5%
IMPLIED REVENUE GROWTH85.35%
Metric2027202820292030203120322033203420352036
Implied Revenue10,331.1419,148.9435,492.8665,786.56121,936.42226,011.07418,915.05776,465.581,439,191.092,667,563.18
Constant Implied Growth85.35%85.35%85.35%85.35%85.35%85.35%85.35%85.35%85.35%85.35%
Implied Free Cash Flow1.031.913.556.5812.1922.6041.8977.65143.92266.76
Discount Factor0.960.860.800.750.710.660.620.590.550.52
Present Value of Implied FCF0.991.642.854.968.6315.0126.1245.4479.05137.53

Rolling Historical DCF (Backtest)

Valuation based on actual realized growth.
YearValuation DateActual PriceRealized Growth (5Y)Calculated Fair ValueValuation Delta
20192019-12-31$1.9511.64%$2.2816.83%
20182018-12-31$2.3310.83%$-4.37-287.51%
20172017-12-31$4.167.70%$3.33-20.00%
20162016-12-31$2.891.69%$2.07-28.30%
20152015-12-31$2.705.80%$2.67-1.25%
20142014-12-31$2.5814.16%$2.12-17.85%

Monte Carlo Simulation (1,000 Iterations)

Mean Fair Value
$18.19
Median
$15.72
10th Percentile
$11.29
90th Percentile
$26.15

Fair Value Distribution

$8.78 - $14.46
393
$14.46 - $20.13
366
$20.13 - $25.80
135
$25.80 - $31.47
43
$31.47 - $37.14
24
$37.14 - $42.81
11
$42.81 - $48.48
10
$48.48 - $54.15
6
$54.15 - $59.82
1
$59.82 - $65.49
4
$65.49 - $71.16
4
$71.16 - $76.83
1
$76.83 - $82.50
0
$82.50 - $88.17
0
$88.17 - $93.84
0
$93.84 - $99.52
0
$99.52 - $105.19
1
$105.19 - $110.86
0
$110.86 - $116.53
0
$116.53 - $122.20
1